Existing heterogeneous treatment effects learners, also known as conditional average treatment effects (CATE) learners, lack a general mechanism for end-to-end inter-treatment information sharing, and data have to be split among potential outcome functions to train CATE learners which can lead to biased estimates with limited observational datasets. To address this issue, we propose a novel deep learning-based framework to train CATE learners that facilitates dynamic end-to-end information sharing among treatment groups. The framework is based on \textit{soft weight sharing} of \textit{hypernetworks}, which offers advantages such as parameter efficiency, faster training, and improved results. The proposed framework complements existing CATE learners and introduces a new class of uncertainty-aware CATE learners that we refer to as \textit{HyperCATE}. We develop HyperCATE versions of commonly used CATE learners and evaluate them on IHDP, ACIC-2016, and Twins benchmarks. Our experimental results show that the proposed framework improves the CATE estimation error via counterfactual inference, with increasing effectiveness for smaller datasets.
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Ed-Fed: A generic federated learning framework with resource-aware client selection for edge devices
Federated learning (FL) has evolved as a prominent method for edge devices to cooperatively create a unified prediction model while securing their sensitive training data local to the device. Despite the existence of numerous research frameworks for simulating FL algorithms, they do not facilitate comprehensive deployment for automatic speech recognition tasks on heterogeneous edge devices. This is where Ed-Fed, a comprehensive and generic FL framework, comes in as a foundation for future practical FL system research. We also propose a novel resource-aware client selection algorithm to optimise the waiting time in the FL settings. We show that our approach can handle the straggler devices and dynamically set the training time for the selected devices in a round. Our evaluation has shown that the proposed approach significantly optimises waiting time in FL compared to conventional random client selection methods.
We propose a novel learning-based surrogate data assimilation (DA) model for efficient state estimation in a limited area. Our model employs a feedforward neural network for online computation, eliminating the need for integrating high-dimensional limited-area models. This approach offers significant computational advantages over traditional DA algorithms. Furthermore, our method avoids the requirement of lateral boundary conditions for the limited-area model in both online and offline computations. The design of our surrogate DA model is built upon a robust theoretical framework that leverages two fundamental concepts: observability and effective region. The concept of observability enables us to quantitatively determine the optimal amount of observation data necessary for accurate DA. Meanwhile, the concept of effective region substantially reduces the computational burden associated with computing observability and generating training data.
The main challenge of offline reinforcement learning, where data is limited, arises from a sequence of counterfactual reasoning dilemmas within the realm of potential actions: What if we were to choose a different course of action? These circumstances frequently give rise to extrapolation errors, which tend to accumulate exponentially with the problem horizon. Hence, it becomes crucial to acknowledge that not all decision steps are equally important to the final outcome, and to budget the number of counterfactual decisions a policy make in order to control the extrapolation. Contrary to existing approaches that use regularization on either the policy or value function, we propose an approach to explicitly bound the amount of out-of-distribution actions during training. Specifically, our method utilizes dynamic programming to decide where to extrapolate and where not to, with an upper bound on the decisions different from behavior policy. It balances between the potential for improvement from taking out-of-distribution actions and the risk of making errors due to extrapolation. Theoretically, we justify our method by the constrained optimality of the fixed point solution to our $Q$ updating rules. Empirically, we show that the overall performance of our method is better than the state-of-the-art offline RL methods on tasks in the widely-used D4RL benchmarks.
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. In this application, we corroborate evidence for the recently proposed L\'evy flight model of decision-making and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method.
The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.
Knowledge graphs represent factual knowledge about the world as relationships between concepts and are critical for intelligent decision making in enterprise applications. New knowledge is inferred from the existing facts in the knowledge graphs by encoding the concepts and relations into low-dimensional feature vector representations. The most effective representations for this task, called Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), are learned through neural network architectures. Due to their impressive predictive performance, they are increasingly used in high-impact domains like healthcare, finance and education. However, are the black-box KGE models adversarially robust for use in domains with high stakes? This thesis argues that state-of-the-art KGE models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks, that is, their predictive performance can be degraded by systematically crafted perturbations to the training knowledge graph. To support this argument, two novel data poisoning attacks are proposed that craft input deletions or additions at training time to subvert the learned model's performance at inference time. These adversarial attacks target the task of predicting the missing facts in knowledge graphs using KGE models, and the evaluation shows that the simpler attacks are competitive with or outperform the computationally expensive ones. The thesis contributions not only highlight and provide an opportunity to fix the security vulnerabilities of KGE models, but also help to understand the black-box predictive behaviour of KGE models.
Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.
Graph representation learning is to learn universal node representations that preserve both node attributes and structural information. The derived node representations can be used to serve various downstream tasks, such as node classification and node clustering. When a graph is heterogeneous, the problem becomes more challenging than the homogeneous graph node learning problem. Inspired by the emerging information theoretic-based learning algorithm, in this paper we propose an unsupervised graph neural network Heterogeneous Deep Graph Infomax (HDGI) for heterogeneous graph representation learning. We use the meta-path structure to analyze the connections involving semantics in heterogeneous graphs and utilize graph convolution module and semantic-level attention mechanism to capture local representations. By maximizing local-global mutual information, HDGI effectively learns high-level node representations that can be utilized in downstream graph-related tasks. Experiment results show that HDGI remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised graph representation learning methods on both classification and clustering tasks. By feeding the learned representations into a parametric model, such as logistic regression, we even achieve comparable performance in node classification tasks when comparing with state-of-the-art supervised end-to-end GNN models.
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