Estimating the effects of long-term treatments in A/B testing presents a significant challenge. Such treatments -- including updates to product functions, user interface designs, and recommendation algorithms -- are intended to remain in the system for a long period after their launches. On the other hand, given the constraints of conducting long-term experiments, practitioners often rely on short-term experimental results to make product launch decisions. It remains an open question how to accurately estimate the effects of long-term treatments using short-term experimental data. To address this question, we introduce a longitudinal surrogate framework. We show that, under standard assumptions, the effects of long-term treatments can be decomposed into a series of functions, which depend on the user attributes, the short-term intermediate metrics, and the treatment assignments. We describe the identification assumptions, the estimation strategies, and the inference technique under this framework. Empirically, we show that our approach outperforms existing solutions by leveraging two real-world experiments, each involving millions of users on WeChat, one of the world's largest social networking platforms.
Equilibria in auctions can be very difficult to analyze, beyond the symmetric environments where revenue equivalence renders the analysis straightforward. This paper takes a robust approach to evaluating the equilibria of auctions. Rather than identify the equilibria of an auction under specific environmental conditions, it considers worst-case analysis, where an auction is evaluated according to the worst environment and worst equilibrium in that environment. It identifies a non-equilibrium property of auctions that governs whether or not their worst-case equilibria are good for welfare and revenue. This property is easy to analyze, can be refined from data, and composes across markets where multiple auctions are run simultaneously.
We introduce Doppler time-of-flight (D-ToF) rendering, an extension of ToF rendering for dynamic scenes, with applications in simulating D-ToF cameras. D-ToF cameras use high-frequency modulation of illumination and exposure, and measure the Doppler frequency shift to compute the radial velocity of dynamic objects. The time-varying scene geometry and high-frequency modulation functions used in such cameras make it challenging to accurately and efficiently simulate their measurements with existing ToF rendering algorithms. We overcome these challenges in a twofold manner: To achieve accuracy, we derive path integral expressions for D-ToF measurements under global illumination and form unbiased Monte Carlo estimates of these integrals. To achieve efficiency, we develop a tailored time-path sampling technique that combines antithetic time sampling with correlated path sampling. We show experimentally that our sampling technique achieves up to two orders of magnitude lower variance compared to naive time-path sampling. We provide an open-source simulator that serves as a digital twin for D-ToF imaging systems, allowing imaging researchers, for the first time, to investigate the impact of modulation functions, material properties, and global illumination on D-ToF imaging performance.
A prominent theory of affective response to music revolves around the concepts of surprisal and expectation. In prior work, this idea has been operationalized in the form of probabilistic models of music which allow for precise computation of song (or note-by-note) probabilities, conditioned on a 'training set' of prior musical or cultural experiences. To date, however, these models have been limited to compute exact probabilities through hand-crafted features or restricted to linear models which are likely not sufficient to represent the complex conditional distributions present in music. In this work, we propose to use modern deep probabilistic generative models in the form of a Diffusion Model to compute an approximate likelihood of a musical input sequence. Unlike prior work, such a generative model parameterized by deep neural networks is able to learn complex non-linear features directly from a training set itself. In doing so, we expect to find that such models are able to more accurately represent the 'surprisal' of music for human listeners. From the literature, it is known that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between surprisal and the amount human subjects 'like' a given song. In this work we show that pre-trained diffusion models indeed yield musical surprisal values which exhibit a negative quadratic relationship with measured subject 'liking' ratings, and that the quality of this relationship is competitive with state of the art methods such as IDyOM. We therefore present this model a preliminary step in developing modern deep generative models of music expectation and subjective likability.
Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial noise. Adversarial training (AT) has been demonstrated to be the most effective defense strategy to protect neural networks from being fooled. However, we find AT omits to learning robust features, resulting in poor performance of adversarial robustness. To address this issue, we highlight two characteristics of robust representation: (1) $\bf{exclusion}$: the feature of natural examples keeps away from that of other classes; (2) $\bf{alignment}$: the feature of natural and corresponding adversarial examples is close to each other. These motivate us to propose a generic framework of AT to gain robust representation, by the asymmetric negative contrast and reverse attention. Specifically, we design an asymmetric negative contrast based on predicted probabilities, to push away examples of different classes in the feature space. Moreover, we propose to weight feature by parameters of the linear classifier as the reverse attention, to obtain class-aware feature and pull close the feature of the same class. Empirical evaluations on three benchmark datasets show our methods greatly advance the robustness of AT and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at <//github.com/changzhang777/ANCRA>.
Variational dimensionality reduction methods are known for their high accuracy, generative abilities, and robustness. These methods have many theoretical justifications. Here we introduce a unifying principle rooted in information theory to rederive and generalize existing variational methods and design new ones. We base our framework on an interpretation of the multivariate information bottleneck, in which two Bayesian networks are traded off against one another. We interpret the first network as an encoder graph, which specifies what information to keep when compressing the data. We interpret the second network as a decoder graph, which specifies a generative model for the data. Using this framework, we rederive existing dimensionality reduction methods such as the deep variational information bottleneck (DVIB), beta variational auto-encoders (beta-VAE), and deep variational canonical correlation analysis (DVCCA). The framework naturally introduces a trade-off parameter between compression and reconstruction in the DVCCA family of algorithms, resulting in the new beta-DVCCA family. In addition, we derive a new variational dimensionality reduction method, deep variational symmetric informational bottleneck (DVSIB), which simultaneously compresses two variables to preserve information between their compressed representations. We implement all of these algorithms and evaluate their ability to produce shared low dimensional latent spaces on a modified noisy MNIST dataset. We show that algorithms that are better matched to the structure of the data (beta-DVCCA and DVSIB) produce better latent spaces as measured by classification accuracy and the dimensionality of the latent variables. We believe that this framework can be used to unify other multi-view representation learning algorithms. Additionally, it provides a straightforward framework for deriving problem-specific loss functions.
Large Language Models (LLMs) significantly benefit from Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in performing various reasoning tasks. While CoT allows models to produce more comprehensive reasoning processes, its emphasis on intermediate reasoning steps can inadvertently introduce hallucinations and accumulated errors, thereby limiting models' ability to solve complex reasoning tasks. Inspired by how humans engage in careful and meticulous deductive logical reasoning processes to solve tasks, we seek to enable language models to perform explicit and rigorous deductive reasoning, and also ensure the trustworthiness of their reasoning process through self-verification. However, directly verifying the validity of an entire deductive reasoning process is challenging, even with advanced models like ChatGPT. In light of this, we propose to decompose a reasoning verification process into a series of step-by-step subprocesses, each only receiving their necessary context and premises. To facilitate this procedure, we propose Natural Program, a natural language-based deductive reasoning format. Our approach enables models to generate precise reasoning steps where subsequent steps are more rigorously grounded on prior steps. It also empowers language models to carry out reasoning self-verification in a step-by-step manner. By integrating this verification process into each deductive reasoning stage, we significantly enhance the rigor and trustfulness of generated reasoning steps. Along this process, we also improve the answer correctness on complex reasoning tasks. Code will be released at //github.com/lz1oceani/verify_cot.
Training unsupervised speech recognition systems presents challenges due to GAN-associated instability, misalignment between speech and text, and significant memory demands. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel ASR system, ESPUM. This system harnesses the power of lower-order N-skipgrams (up to N=3) combined with positional unigram statistics gathered from a small batch of samples. Evaluated on the TIMIT benchmark, our model showcases competitive performance in ASR and phoneme segmentation tasks. Access our publicly available code at //github.com/lwang114/GraphUnsupASR.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has achieved extraordinary success in learning effective task-specific representations of nodes in graphs. However, regarding Heterogeneous Information Network (HIN), existing HIN-oriented GCN methods still suffer from two deficiencies: (1) they cannot flexibly explore all possible meta-paths and extract the most useful ones for a target object, which hinders both effectiveness and interpretability; (2) they often need to generate intermediate meta-path based dense graphs, which leads to high computational complexity. To address the above issues, we propose an interpretable and efficient Heterogeneous Graph Convolutional Network (ie-HGCN) to learn the representations of objects in HINs. It is designed as a hierarchical aggregation architecture, i.e., object-level aggregation first, followed by type-level aggregation. The novel architecture can automatically extract useful meta-paths for each object from all possible meta-paths (within a length limit), which brings good model interpretability. It can also reduce the computational cost by avoiding intermediate HIN transformation and neighborhood attention. We provide theoretical analysis about the proposed ie-HGCN in terms of evaluating the usefulness of all possible meta-paths, its connection to the spectral graph convolution on HINs, and its quasi-linear time complexity. Extensive experiments on three real network datasets demonstrate the superiority of ie-HGCN over the state-of-the-art methods.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.