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Correlation coefficients play a pivotal role in quantifying linear relationships between random variables. Yet, their application to time series data is very challenging due to temporal dependencies. This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the statistical significance of correlation coefficients in time series data, addressing the limitations of traditional methods based on the concept of effective degrees of freedom (or effective sample size, ESS). These effective degrees of freedom represent the independent sample size that would yield comparable test statistics under the assumption of no temporal correlation. We propose to assume a parametric Gaussian form for the autocorrelation function. We show that this assumption, motivated by a Laplace approximation, enables a simple estimator of the ESS that depends only on the temporal derivatives of the time series. Through numerical experiments, we show that the proposed approach yields accurate statistics while significantly reducing computational overhead. In addition, we evaluate the adequacy of our approach on real physiological signals, for assessing the connectivity measures in electrophysiology and detecting correlated arm movements in motion capture data. Our methodology provides a simple tool for researchers working with time series data, enabling robust hypothesis testing in the presence of temporal dependencies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased impressive capabilities in handling straightforward programming tasks. However, their performance tends to falter when confronted with more challenging programming problems. We observe that conventional models often generate solutions as monolithic code blocks, restricting their effectiveness in tackling intricate questions. To overcome this limitation, we present Modular-of-Thought Coder (MoTCoder). We introduce a pioneering framework for MoT instruction tuning, designed to promote the decomposition of tasks into logical sub-tasks and sub-modules. Our investigations reveal that, through the cultivation and utilization of sub-modules, MoTCoder significantly improves both the modularity and correctness of the generated solutions, leading to substantial relative pass@1 improvements of 12.9% on APPS and 9.43% on CodeContests. Our codes are available at //github.com/dvlab-research/MoTCoder.

Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models have exhibited exciting progress in their capabilities, capturing the interest of practitioners and the public alike. Yet, while the literature on the trustworthiness of GPT models remains limited, practitioners have proposed employing capable GPT models for sensitive applications such as healthcare and finance -- where mistakes can be costly. To this end, this work proposes a comprehensive trustworthiness evaluation for large language models with a focus on GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, considering diverse perspectives -- including toxicity, stereotype bias, adversarial robustness, out-of-distribution robustness, robustness on adversarial demonstrations, privacy, machine ethics, and fairness. Based on our evaluations, we discover previously unpublished vulnerabilities to trustworthiness threats. For instance, we find that GPT models can be easily misled to generate toxic and biased outputs and leak private information in both training data and conversation history. We also find that although GPT-4 is usually more trustworthy than GPT-3.5 on standard benchmarks, GPT-4 is more vulnerable given jailbreaking system or user prompts, potentially because GPT-4 follows (misleading) instructions more precisely. Our work illustrates a comprehensive trustworthiness evaluation of GPT models and sheds light on the trustworthiness gaps. Our benchmark is publicly available at //decodingtrust.github.io/; our dataset can be previewed at //huggingface.co/datasets/AI-Secure/DecodingTrust; a concise version of this work is at //openreview.net/pdf?id=kaHpo8OZw2.

Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the publications available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study attempts to close this gap by conducting a systematic review of technology forecasting literature addressing the application of quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. We identified 25 studies relevant to the objective of this research and classified the techniques used in the studies into different categories, among which growth curves and time series methods were shown to remain popular over the past decade, while newer methods, such as machine learning-based hybrid models, have emerged in recent years. As more effort and evidence are needed to determine if hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, we expect to see a growing trend in the development and application of hybrid models to technology forecasting.

Very recently, the first mathematical runtime analyses of the multi-objective evolutionary optimizer NSGA-II have been conducted. We continue this line of research with a first runtime analysis of this algorithm on a benchmark problem consisting of two multimodal objectives. We prove that if the population size $N$ is at least four times the size of the Pareto front, then the NSGA-II with four different ways to select parents and bit-wise mutation optimizes the OneJumpZeroJump benchmark with jump size~$2 \le k \le n/4$ in time $O(N n^k)$. When using fast mutation, a recently proposed heavy-tailed mutation operator, this guarantee improves by a factor of $k^{\Omega(k)}$. Overall, this work shows that the NSGA-II copes with the local optima of the OneJumpZeroJump problem at least as well as the global SEMO algorithm.

We present DIALIGHT, a toolkit for developing and evaluating multilingual Task-Oriented Dialogue (ToD) systems which facilitates systematic evaluations and comparisons between ToD systems using fine-tuning of Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and those utilising the zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). In addition to automatic evaluation, this toolkit features (i) a secure, user-friendly web interface for fine-grained human evaluation at both local utterance level and global dialogue level, and (ii) a microservice-based backend, improving efficiency and scalability. Our evaluations reveal that while PLM fine-tuning leads to higher accuracy and coherence, LLM-based systems excel in producing diverse and likeable responses. However, we also identify significant challenges of LLMs in adherence to task-specific instructions and generating outputs in multiple languages, highlighting areas for future research. We hope this open-sourced toolkit will serve as a valuable resource for researchers aiming to develop and properly evaluate multilingual ToD systems and will lower, currently still high, entry barriers in the field.

Evaluating the quality and variability of text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) poses a significant, yet unresolved research challenge. Traditional evaluation methods, such as ROUGE and BERTScore, which measure token similarity, often fail to capture the holistic semantic equivalence. This results in a low correlation with human judgments and intuition, which is especially problematic in high-stakes applications like healthcare and finance where reliability, safety, and robust decision-making are highly critical. This work proposes DCR, an automated framework for evaluating and improving the consistency of LLM-generated texts using a divide-conquer-reasoning approach. Unlike existing LLM-based evaluators that operate at the paragraph level, our method employs a divide-and-conquer evaluator (DCE) that breaks down the paragraph-to-paragraph comparison between two generated responses into individual sentence-to-paragraph comparisons, each evaluated based on predefined criteria. To facilitate this approach, we introduce an automatic metric converter (AMC) that translates the output from DCE into an interpretable numeric score. Beyond the consistency evaluation, we further present a reason-assisted improver (RAI) that leverages the analytical reasons with explanations identified by DCE to generate new responses aimed at reducing these inconsistencies. Through comprehensive and systematic empirical analysis, we show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin (e.g., +19.3% and +24.3% on the SummEval dataset) in evaluating the consistency of LLM generation across multiple benchmarks in semantic, factual, and summarization consistency tasks. Our approach also substantially reduces nearly 90% of output inconsistencies, showing promise for effective hallucination mitigation.

The burgeoning field of Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) is witnessing rapid advancements, particularly in video generation. This paper introduces AIGCBench, a pioneering comprehensive and scalable benchmark designed to evaluate a variety of video generation tasks, with a primary focus on Image-to-Video (I2V) generation. AIGCBench tackles the limitations of existing benchmarks, which suffer from a lack of diverse datasets, by including a varied and open-domain image-text dataset that evaluates different state-of-the-art algorithms under equivalent conditions. We employ a novel text combiner and GPT-4 to create rich text prompts, which are then used to generate images via advanced Text-to-Image models. To establish a unified evaluation framework for video generation tasks, our benchmark includes 11 metrics spanning four dimensions to assess algorithm performance. These dimensions are control-video alignment, motion effects, temporal consistency, and video quality. These metrics are both reference video-dependent and video-free, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation strategy. The evaluation standard proposed correlates well with human judgment, providing insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current I2V algorithms. The findings from our extensive experiments aim to stimulate further research and development in the I2V field. AIGCBench represents a significant step toward creating standardized benchmarks for the broader AIGC landscape, proposing an adaptable and equitable framework for future assessments of video generation tasks.

Recently, Mutual Information (MI) has attracted attention in bounding the generalization error of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). However, it is intractable to accurately estimate the MI in DNNs, thus most previous works have to relax the MI bound, which in turn weakens the information theoretic explanation for generalization. To address the limitation, this paper introduces a probabilistic representation of DNNs for accurately estimating the MI. Leveraging the proposed MI estimator, we validate the information theoretic explanation for generalization, and derive a tighter generalization bound than the state-of-the-art relaxations.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been studied from the lens of expressive power and generalization. However, their optimization properties are less well understood. We take the first step towards analyzing GNN training by studying the gradient dynamics of GNNs. First, we analyze linearized GNNs and prove that despite the non-convexity of training, convergence to a global minimum at a linear rate is guaranteed under mild assumptions that we validate on real-world graphs. Second, we study what may affect the GNNs' training speed. Our results show that the training of GNNs is implicitly accelerated by skip connections, more depth, and/or a good label distribution. Empirical results confirm that our theoretical results for linearized GNNs align with the training behavior of nonlinear GNNs. Our results provide the first theoretical support for the success of GNNs with skip connections in terms of optimization, and suggest that deep GNNs with skip connections would be promising in practice.