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Missing data is a common challenge when analyzing epidemiological data, and imputation is often used to address this issue. Here, we investigate the scenario where a covariate used in an analysis has missingness and will be imputed. There are recommendations to include the outcome from the analysis model in the imputation model for missing covariates, but it is not necessarily clear if this recommmendation always holds and why this is sometimes true. We examine deterministic imputation (i.e., single imputation where the imputed values are treated as fixed) and stochastic imputation (i.e., single imputation with a random value or multiple imputation) methods and their implications for estimating the relationship between the imputed covariate and the outcome. We mathematically demonstrate that including the outcome variable in imputation models is not just a recommendation but a requirement to achieve unbiased results when using stochastic imputation methods. Moreover, we dispel common misconceptions about deterministic imputation models and demonstrate why the outcome should not be included in these models. This paper aims to bridge the gap between imputation in theory and in practice, providing mathematical derivations to explain common statistical recommendations. We offer a better understanding of the considerations involved in imputing missing covariates and emphasize when it is necessary to include the outcome variable in the imputation model.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · Performer · 樣本 · 可辨認的 · 易處理的 ·
2023 年 12 月 13 日

Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab

Learning from human preferences is crucial for language models (LMs) to effectively cater to human needs and societal values. Previous research has made notable progress by leveraging human feedback to follow instructions. However, these approaches rely primarily on online learning techniques like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), which have been proven unstable and challenging to tune for language models. Moreover, PPO requires complex distributed system implementation, hindering the efficiency of large-scale distributed training. In this study, we propose an offline learning from human feedback framework to align LMs without interacting with environments. Specifically, we explore filtering alignment (FA), reward-weighted regression (RWR), and conditional alignment (CA) to align language models to human preferences. By employing a loss function similar to supervised fine-tuning, our methods ensure more stable model training than PPO with a simple machine learning system~(MLSys) and much fewer (around 9\%) computing resources. Experimental results demonstrate that conditional alignment outperforms other offline alignment methods and is comparable to PPO.

The recent proliferation of computers and the internet have opened new opportunities for collecting and processing data. However, such data are often obtained without a well-planned probability survey design. Such non-probability based samples cannot be automatically regarded as representative of the population of interest. Several classes of methods for estimation and inferences from non-probability samples have been developed in recent years. The quasi-randomization methods assume that non-probability sample selection is governed by an underlying latent random mechanism. The basic idea is to use information collected from a probability ("reference") sample to uncover latent non-probability survey participation probabilities (also known as "propensity scores") and use them in estimation of target finite population parameters. In this paper, we review and compare theoretical properties of recently developed methods of estimation survey participation probabilities and study their relative performances in simulations.

The integration of data and knowledge from several sources is known as data fusion. When data is only available in a distributed fashion or when different sensors are used to infer a quantity of interest, data fusion becomes essential. In Bayesian settings, a priori information of the unknown quantities is available and, possibly, present among the different distributed estimators. When the local estimates are fused, the prior knowledge used to construct several local posteriors might be overused unless the fusion node accounts for this and corrects it. In this paper, we analyze the effects of shared priors in Bayesian data fusion contexts. Depending on different common fusion rules, our analysis helps to understand the performance behavior as a function of the number of collaborative agents and as a consequence of different types of priors. The analysis is performed by using two divergences which are common in Bayesian inference, and the generality of the results allows to analyze very generic distributions. These theoretical results are corroborated through experiments in a variety of estimation and classification problems, including linear and nonlinear models, and federated learning schemes.

The expressivity of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can be entirely characterized by appropriate fragments of the first-order logic. Namely, any query of the two variable fragment of graded modal logic (GC2) interpreted over labeled graphs can be expressed using a GNN whose size depends only on the depth of the query. As pointed out by [Barcelo & Al., 2020, Grohe, 2021], this description holds for a family of activation functions, leaving the possibility for a hierarchy of logics expressible by GNNs depending on the chosen activation function. In this article, we show that such hierarchy indeed exists by proving that GC2 queries cannot be expressed by GNNs with polynomial activation functions. This implies a separation between polynomial and popular non-polynomial activations (such as Rectified Linear Units) and answers an open question formulated by [Grohe, 2021].

P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis testing theory. As a consequence, significant results are much more common than they are supposed to be when the null hypothesis is in fact true. In this paper, we build a model of hypothesis testing with p-hacking. From the model, we construct critical values such that, if the values are used to determine significance, and if scientists' p-hacking behavior adjusts to the new significance standards, significant results occur with the desired frequency. Such robust critical values allow for p-hacking so they are larger than classical critical values. To illustrate the amount of correction that p-hacking might require, we calibrate the model using evidence from the medical sciences. In the calibrated model the robust critical value for any test statistic is the classical critical value for the same test statistic with one fifth of the significance level.

Sarcasm is a form of irony that requires readers or listeners to interpret its intended meaning by considering context and social cues. Machine learning classification models have long had difficulty detecting sarcasm due to its social complexity and contradictory nature. This paper explores the applications of the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) models, including GPT-3, InstructGPT, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4, in detecting sarcasm in natural language. It tests fine-tuned and zero-shot models of different sizes and releases. The GPT models were tested on the political and balanced (pol-bal) portion of the popular Self-Annotated Reddit Corpus (SARC 2.0) sarcasm dataset. In the fine-tuning case, the largest fine-tuned GPT-3 model achieves accuracy and $F_1$-score of 0.81, outperforming prior models. In the zero-shot case, one of GPT-4 models yields an accuracy of 0.70 and $F_1$-score of 0.75. Other models score lower. Additionally, a model's performance may improve or deteriorate with each release, highlighting the need to reassess performance after each release.

We propose a novel method for automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The main idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to promote the fact being true (thesis) or the fact being false (antithesis), respectively. Based on these arguments, a binary classifier, called the judge, decides whether the fact is true or false. The two agents can be considered as sparse, adversarial feature generators that present interpretable evidence for either the thesis or the antithesis. In contrast to other black-box methods, the arguments allow users to get an understanding of the decision of the judge. Since the focus of this work is to create an explainable method that maintains a competitive predictive accuracy, we benchmark our method on the triple classification and link prediction task. Thereby, we find that our method outperforms several baselines on the benchmark datasets FB15k-237, WN18RR, and Hetionet. We also conduct a survey and find that the extracted arguments are informative for users.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

In structure learning, the output is generally a structure that is used as supervision information to achieve good performance. Considering the interpretation of deep learning models has raised extended attention these years, it will be beneficial if we can learn an interpretable structure from deep learning models. In this paper, we focus on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) whose inner mechanism is still not clearly understood. We find that Finite State Automaton (FSA) that processes sequential data has more interpretable inner mechanism and can be learned from RNNs as the interpretable structure. We propose two methods to learn FSA from RNN based on two different clustering methods. We first give the graphical illustration of FSA for human beings to follow, which shows the interpretability. From the FSA's point of view, we then analyze how the performance of RNNs are affected by the number of gates, as well as the semantic meaning behind the transition of numerical hidden states. Our results suggest that RNNs with simple gated structure such as Minimal Gated Unit (MGU) is more desirable and the transitions in FSA leading to specific classification result are associated with corresponding words which are understandable by human beings.

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