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Nowadays model uncertainty has become one of the most important problems in both academia and industry. In this paper, we mainly consider the scenario in which we have a common model set used for model averaging instead of selecting a single final model via a model selection procedure to account for this model's uncertainty to improve the reliability and accuracy of inferences. Here one main challenge is to learn the prior over the model set. To tackle this problem, we propose two data-based algorithms to get proper priors for model averaging. One is for meta-learner, the analysts should use historical similar tasks to extract the information about the prior. The other one is for base-learner, a subsampling method is used to deal with the data step by step. Theoretically, an upper bound of risk for our algorithm is presented to guarantee the performance of the worst situation. In practice, both methods perform well in simulations and real data studies, especially with poor-quality data.

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New emerging technologies powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) have the potential to disruptively transform our societies for the better. In particular, data-driven learning approaches (i.e., Machine Learning (ML)) have been a true revolution in the advancement of multiple technologies in various application domains. But at the same time there is growing concern about certain intrinsic characteristics of these methodologies that carry potential risks to both safety and fundamental rights. Although there are mechanisms in the adoption process to minimize these risks (e.g., safety regulations), these do not exclude the possibility of harm occurring, and if this happens, victims should be able to seek compensation. Liability regimes will therefore play a key role in ensuring basic protection for victims using or interacting with these systems. However, the same characteristics that make AI systems inherently risky, such as lack of causality, opacity, unpredictability or their self and continuous learning capabilities, may lead to considerable difficulties when it comes to proving causation. This paper presents three case studies, as well as the methodology to reach them, that illustrate these difficulties. Specifically, we address the cases of cleaning robots, delivery drones and robots in education. The outcome of the proposed analysis suggests the need to revise liability regimes to alleviate the burden of proof on victims in cases involving AI technologies.

Many model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can be viewed as having two phases that are iteratively implemented: a learning phase where the model is approximately learned and a planning phase where the learned model is used to derive a policy. In the case of standard MDPs, the learning problem can be solved using either value iteration or policy iteration. However, in the case of zero-sum Markov games, there is no efficient policy iteration algorithm; e.g., it has been shown in Hansen et al. (2013) that one has to solve Omega(1/(1-alpha)) MDPs, where alpha is the discount factor, to implement the only known convergent version of policy iteration. Another algorithm for Markov zero-sum games, called naive policy iteration, is easy to implement but is only provably convergent under very restrictive assumptions. Prior attempts to fix naive policy iteration algorithm have several limitations. Here, we show that a simple variant of naive policy iteration for games converges, and converges exponentially fast. The only addition we propose to naive policy iteration is the use of lookahead in the policy improvement phase. This is appealing because lookahead is anyway often used in RL for games. We further show that lookahead can be implemented efficiently in linear Markov games, which are the counterpart of the linear MDPs and have been the subject of much attention recently. We then consider multi-agent reinforcement learning which uses our algorithm in the planning phases, and provide sample and time complexity bounds for such an algorithm.

The log-logistic regression model is one of the most commonly used accelerated failure time (AFT) models in survival analysis, for which statistical inference methods are mainly established under the frequentist framework. Recently, Bayesian inference for log-logistic AFT models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques has also been widely developed. In this work, we develop an alternative approach to MCMC methods and infer the parameters of the log-logistic AFT model via a mean-field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm. A piece-wise approximation technique is embedded in deriving the update equations in the VB algorithm to achieve conjugacy. The proposed VB algorithm is evaluated and compared with typical frequentist inferences using simulated data under various scenarios, and a publicly available dataset is employed for illustration. We demonstrate that the proposed VB algorithm can achieve good estimation accuracy and is not sensitive to sample sizes, censoring rates, and prior information.

The present study is an extension of the work done in Parareal convergence for oscillatory pdes with finite time-scale separation (2019), A. G. Peddle, T. Haut, and B. Wingate, [16], and An asymptotic parallel-in-time method for highly oscillatory pdes (2014), T. Haut and B. Wingate, [10], where a two-level Parareal method with averaging is examined. The method proposed in this paper is a multi-level Parareal method with arbitrarily many levels, which is not restricted to the two-level case. We give an asymptotic error estimate which reduces to the two-level estimate for the case when only two levels are considered. Introducing more than two levels has important consequences for the averaging procedure, as we choose separate averaging windows for each of the different levels, which is an additional new feature of the present study. The different averaging windows make the proposed method especially appropriate for multi-scale problems, because we can introduce a level for each intrinsic scale of the problem and adapt the averaging procedure such that we reproduce the behavior of the model on the particular scale resolved by the level. The computational complexity of the new method is investigated and the efficiency is studied on several examples.

Federated Learning is a distributed machine-learning environment that allows clients to learn collaboratively without sharing private data. This is accomplished by exchanging parameters. However, the differences in data distributions and computing resources among clients make related studies difficult. To address these heterogeneous problems, we propose a novel Federated Learning method. Our method utilizes a pre-trained model as the backbone of the local model, with fully connected layers comprising the head. The backbone extracts features for the head, and the embedding vector of classes is shared between clients to improve the head and enhance the performance of the local model. By sharing the embedding vector of classes instead of gradient-based parameters, clients can better adapt to private data, and communication between the server and clients is more effective. To protect privacy, we propose a privacy-preserving hybrid method that adds noise to the embedding vector of classes. This method has a minimal effect on the performance of the local model when differential privacy is met. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of our approach on a self-built vehicle dataset, comparing it with other Federated Learning methods under non-independent identically distributed(Non-IID).

This paper proposes empirical Bayes shrinkage methods. Compared to common shrinkage methods, we do not assume that the unknown parameters are independent from the known standard errors. This prior independence assumption is both theoretically tenuous and often empirically rejected. We instead model the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a location-scale family. This assumption leads to a family of methods that we call CLOSE. We establish that (i) CLOSE is rate-optimal for squared error Bayes regret up to logarithmic factors, (ii) squared error regret control is sufficient for a class of economic decision problems, and (iii) CLOSE is worst-case robust. We illustrate our method with an empirical application to the Opportunity Atlas and Creating Moves to Opportunity (Chetty et al., 2018; Bergman et al., 2019). For the decision problem of selecting high mobility Census tracts in Bergman et al. (2019), CLOSE selects Census tracts that are more economically mobile than the standard shrinkage method. This estimated gain is larger than the gain of using the standard method relative to selecting tracts uniformly at random.

In many industrial applications, obtaining labeled observations is not straightforward as it often requires the intervention of human experts or the use of expensive testing equipment. In these circumstances, active learning can be highly beneficial in suggesting the most informative data points to be used when fitting a model. Reducing the number of observations needed for model development alleviates both the computational burden required for training and the operational expenses related to labeling. Online active learning, in particular, is useful in high-volume production processes where the decision about the acquisition of the label for a data point needs to be taken within an extremely short time frame. However, despite the recent efforts to develop online active learning strategies, the behavior of these methods in the presence of outliers has not been thoroughly examined. In this work, we investigate the performance of online active linear regression in contaminated data streams. Our study shows that the currently available query strategies are prone to sample outliers, whose inclusion in the training set eventually degrades the predictive performance of the models. To address this issue, we propose a solution that bounds the search area of a conditional D-optimal algorithm and uses a robust estimator. Our approach strikes a balance between exploring unseen regions of the input space and protecting against outliers. Through numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method is effective in improving the performance of online active learning in the presence of outliers, thus expanding the potential applications of this powerful tool.

This paper studies offline policy learning, which aims at utilizing observations collected a priori (from either fixed or adaptively evolving behavior policies) to learn the optimal individualized decision rule in a given class. Existing policy learning methods rely on a uniform overlap assumption, i.e., the propensities of exploring all actions for all individual characteristics are lower bounded in the offline dataset. In other words, the performance of these methods depends on the worst-case propensity in the offline dataset. As one has no control over the data collection process, this assumption can be unrealistic in many situations, especially when the behavior policies are allowed to evolve over time with diminishing propensities. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that optimizes lower confidence bounds (LCBs) -- instead of point estimates -- of the policy values. The LCBs are constructed by quantifying the estimation uncertainty of the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW)-type estimators using knowledge of the behavior policies for collecting the offline data. Without assuming any uniform overlap condition, we establish a data-dependent upper bound for the suboptimality of our algorithm, which depends only on (i) the overlap for the optimal policy, and (ii) the complexity of the policy class. As an implication, for adaptively collected data, we ensure efficient policy learning as long as the propensities for optimal actions are lower bounded over time, while those for suboptimal ones are allowed to diminish arbitrarily fast. In our theoretical analysis, we develop a new self-normalized concentration inequality for IPW estimators, generalizing the well-known empirical Bernstein's inequality to unbounded and non-i.i.d. data.

Knowledge enhanced pre-trained language models (K-PLMs) are shown to be effective for many public tasks in the literature but few of them have been successfully applied in practice. To address this problem, we propose K-AID, a systematic approach that includes a low-cost knowledge acquisition process for acquiring domain knowledge, an effective knowledge infusion module for improving model performance, and a knowledge distillation component for reducing the model size and deploying K-PLMs on resource-restricted devices (e.g., CPU) for real-world application. Importantly, instead of capturing entity knowledge like the majority of existing K-PLMs, our approach captures relational knowledge, which contributes to better-improving sentence-level text classification and text matching tasks that play a key role in question answering (QA). We conducted a set of experiments on five text classification tasks and three text matching tasks from three domains, namely E-commerce, Government, and Film&TV, and performed online A/B tests in E-commerce. Experimental results show that our approach is able to achieve substantial improvement on sentence-level question answering tasks and bring beneficial business value in industrial settings.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in computer vision tasks. Existing neural networks mainly operate in the spatial domain with fixed input sizes. For practical applications, images are usually large and have to be downsampled to the predetermined input size of neural networks. Even though the downsampling operations reduce computation and the required communication bandwidth, it removes both redundant and salient information obliviously, which results in accuracy degradation. Inspired by digital signal processing theories, we analyze the spectral bias from the frequency perspective and propose a learning-based frequency selection method to identify the trivial frequency components which can be removed without accuracy loss. The proposed method of learning in the frequency domain leverages identical structures of the well-known neural networks, such as ResNet-50, MobileNetV2, and Mask R-CNN, while accepting the frequency-domain information as the input. Experiment results show that learning in the frequency domain with static channel selection can achieve higher accuracy than the conventional spatial downsampling approach and meanwhile further reduce the input data size. Specifically for ImageNet classification with the same input size, the proposed method achieves 1.41% and 0.66% top-1 accuracy improvements on ResNet-50 and MobileNetV2, respectively. Even with half input size, the proposed method still improves the top-1 accuracy on ResNet-50 by 1%. In addition, we observe a 0.8% average precision improvement on Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation on the COCO dataset.

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