Stochastic gradient-based optimisation for discrete latent variable models is challenging due to the high variance of gradients. We introduce a variance reduction technique for score function estimators that makes use of double control variates. These control variates act on top of a main control variate, and try to further reduce the variance of the overall estimator. We develop a double control variate for the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator using Taylor expansions. For training discrete latent variable models, such as variational autoencoders with binary latent variables, our approach adds no extra computational cost compared to standard training with the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator. We apply our method to challenging high-dimensional toy examples and training variational autoencoders with binary latent variables. We show that our estimator can have lower variance compared to other state-of-the-art estimators.
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Quantized neural networks typically require smaller memory footprints and lower computation complexity, which is crucial for efficient deployment. However, quantization inevitably leads to a distribution divergence from the original network, which generally degrades the performance. To tackle this issue, massive efforts have been made, but most existing approaches lack statistical considerations and depend on several manual configurations. In this paper, we present an adaptive-mapping quantization method to learn an optimal latent sub-distribution that is inherent within models and smoothly approximated with a concrete Gaussian Mixture (GM). In particular, the network weights are projected in compliance with the GM-approximated sub-distribution. This sub-distribution evolves along with the weight update in a co-tuning schema guided by the direct task-objective optimization. Sufficient experiments on image classification and object detection over various modern architectures demonstrate the effectiveness, generalization property, and transferability of the proposed method. Besides, an efficient deployment flow for the mobile CPU is developed, achieving up to 7.46$\times$ inference acceleration on an octa-core ARM CPU. Codes have been publicly released on Github (//github.com/RunpeiDong/DGMS).
Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. We propose a non-classical parameterization for density estimation using the sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parameterization is induced by the Kullback-Leibler distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to simple prior that does not depend on data, can be obtained by convex optimization. Simulation results show the performance of the proposed estimator in estimating multi-modal densities which are mixtures of different types of functions.
Estimating and reacting to external disturbances is of fundamental importance for robust control of quadrotors. Existing estimators typically require significant tuning or training with a large amount of data, including the ground truth, to achieve satisfactory performance. This paper proposes a data-efficient differentiable moving horizon estimation (DMHE) algorithm that can automatically tune the MHE parameters online and also adapt to different scenarios. We achieve this by deriving the analytical gradient of the estimated trajectory from MHE with respect to the tuning parameters, enabling end-to-end learning for auto-tuning. Most interestingly, we show that the gradient can be calculated efficiently from a Kalman filter in a recursive form. Moreover, we develop a model-based policy gradient algorithm to learn the parameters directly from the trajectory tracking errors without the need for the ground truth. The proposed DMHE can be further embedded as a layer with other neural networks for joint optimization. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method via both simulation and experiments on quadrotors, where challenging scenarios such as sudden payload change and flying in downwash are examined.
The current paper studies the problem of minimizing a loss $f(\boldsymbol{x})$ subject to constraints of the form $\boldsymbol{D}\boldsymbol{x} \in S$, where $S$ is a closed set, convex or not, and $\boldsymbol{D}$ is a matrix that fuses parameters. Fusion constraints can capture smoothness, sparsity, or more general constraint patterns. To tackle this generic class of problems, we combine the Beltrami-Courant penalty method with the proximal distance principle. The latter is driven by minimization of penalized objectives $f(\boldsymbol{x})+\frac{\rho}{2}\text{dist}(\boldsymbol{D}\boldsymbol{x},S)^2$ involving large tuning constants $\rho$ and the squared Euclidean distance of $\boldsymbol{D}\boldsymbol{x}$ from $S$. The next iterate $\boldsymbol{x}_{n+1}$ of the corresponding proximal distance algorithm is constructed from the current iterate $\boldsymbol{x}_n$ by minimizing the majorizing surrogate function $f(\boldsymbol{x})+\frac{\rho}{2}\|\boldsymbol{D}\boldsymbol{x}-\mathcal{P}_{S}(\boldsymbol{D}\boldsymbol{x}_n)\|^2$. For fixed $\rho$ and a subanalytic loss $f(\boldsymbol{x})$ and a subanalytic constraint set $S$, we prove convergence to a stationary point. Under stronger assumptions, we provide convergence rates and demonstrate linear local convergence. We also construct a steepest descent (SD) variant to avoid costly linear system solves. To benchmark our algorithms, we compare against the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Our extensive numerical tests include problems on metric projection, convex regression, convex clustering, total variation image denoising, and projection of a matrix to a good condition number. These experiments demonstrate the superior speed and acceptable accuracy of our steepest variant on high-dimensional problems.
The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling time-varying covariate effects. It is most commonly estimated by ordinary least squares. In this paper we consider the case where covariates are bounded, and derive the maximum likelihood estimator under the constraint that the hazard is non-negative for all covariate values in their domain. We describe an efficient algorithm to find the maximum likelihood estimator. The method is contrasted with the ordinary least squares approach in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated on a realistic data set.
Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to obtain uncertainty estimation or need significant modification (e.g., formulating a proper Bayesian treatment) to obtain it. Most previous methods are not able to take an arbitrary model off the shelf and generate uncertainty estimation without retraining or redesigning it. To address this gap, we perform a systematic exploration into training-free uncertainty estimation for dense regression, an unrecognized yet important problem, and provide a theoretical construction justifying such estimations. We propose three simple and scalable methods to analyze the variance of outputs from a trained network under tolerable perturbations: infer-transformation, infer-noise, and infer-dropout. They operate solely during the inference, without the need to re-train, re-design, or fine-tune the models, as typically required by state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods. Surprisingly, even without involving such perturbations in training, our methods produce comparable or even better uncertainty estimation when compared to training-required state-of-the-art methods.
We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We show empirically that this approach outperforms generic samplers in a number of difficult settings including Ising models, Potts models, restricted Boltzmann machines, and factorial hidden Markov models. We also demonstrate the use of our improved sampler for training deep energy-based models on high dimensional discrete data. This approach outperforms variational auto-encoders and existing energy-based models. Finally, we give bounds showing that our approach is near-optimal in the class of samplers which propose local updates.
How to obtain good value estimation is one of the key problems in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Current value estimation methods, such as DDPG and TD3, suffer from unnecessary over- or underestimation bias. In this paper, we explore the potential of double actors, which has been neglected for a long time, for better value function estimation in continuous setting. First, we uncover and demonstrate the bias alleviation property of double actors by building double actors upon single critic and double critics to handle overestimation bias in DDPG and underestimation bias in TD3 respectively. Next, we interestingly find that double actors help improve the exploration ability of the agent. Finally, to mitigate the uncertainty of value estimate from double critics, we further propose to regularize the critic networks under double actors architecture, which gives rise to Double Actors Regularized Critics (DARC) algorithm. Extensive experimental results on challenging continuous control tasks show that DARC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods with higher sample efficiency.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
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