Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to obtain uncertainty estimation or need significant modification (e.g., formulating a proper Bayesian treatment) to obtain it. Most previous methods are not able to take an arbitrary model off the shelf and generate uncertainty estimation without retraining or redesigning it. To address this gap, we perform a systematic exploration into training-free uncertainty estimation for dense regression, an unrecognized yet important problem, and provide a theoretical construction justifying such estimations. We propose three simple and scalable methods to analyze the variance of outputs from a trained network under tolerable perturbations: infer-transformation, infer-noise, and infer-dropout. They operate solely during the inference, without the need to re-train, re-design, or fine-tune the models, as typically required by state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods. Surprisingly, even without involving such perturbations in training, our methods produce comparable or even better uncertainty estimation when compared to training-required state-of-the-art methods.
相關內容
Recent progress in deep learning has continuously improved the accuracy of dialogue response selection. In particular, sophisticated neural network architectures are leveraged to capture the rich interactions between dialogue context and response candidates. While remarkably effective, these models also bring in a steep increase in computational cost. Consequently, such models can only be used as a re-rank module in practice. In this study, we present a solution to directly select proper responses from a large corpus or even a nonparallel corpus that only consists of unpaired sentences, using a dense retrieval model. To push the limits of dense retrieval, we design an interaction layer upon the dense retrieval models and apply a set of tailor-designed learning strategies. Our model shows superiority over strong baselines on the conventional re-rank evaluation setting, which is remarkable given its efficiency. To verify the effectiveness of our approach in realistic scenarios, we also conduct full-rank evaluation, where the target is to select proper responses from a full candidate pool that may contain millions of candidates and evaluate them fairly through human annotations. Our proposed model notably outperforms pipeline baselines that integrate fast recall and expressive re-rank modules. Human evaluation results show that enlarging the candidate pool with nonparallel corpora improves response quality further.
Epistemic uncertainty is the part of out-of-sample prediction error due to the lack of knowledge of the learner. Whereas previous work was focusing on model variance, we propose a principled approach for directly estimating epistemic uncertainty by learning to predict generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. This estimator of epistemic uncertainty includes the effect of model bias (or misspecification) and is useful in interactive learning environments arising in active learning or reinforcement learning. In addition to discussing these properties of Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP), we illustrate its advantage against existing methods for uncertainty estimation on downstream tasks including sequential model optimization and reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic classification of images and for estimating uncertainty about synergistic drug combinations.
We propose a novel energy-based prior for generative saliency prediction, where the latent variables follow an informative energy-based prior. Both the saliency generator and the energy-based prior are jointly trained via Markov chain Monte Carlo-based maximum likelihood estimation, in which the sampling from the intractable posterior and prior distributions of the latent variables are performed by Langevin dynamics. With the generative saliency model, we can obtain a pixel-wise uncertainty map from an image, indicating model confidence in the saliency prediction. Different from existing generative models, which define the prior distribution of the latent variable as a simple isotropic Gaussian distribution, our model uses an energy-based informative prior which can be more expressive in capturing the latent space of the data. With the informative energy-based prior, we extend the Gaussian distribution assumption of generative models to achieve a more representative distribution of the latent space, leading to more reliable uncertainty estimation. We apply the proposed frameworks to both RGB and RGB-D salient object detection tasks with both transformer and convolutional neural network backbones. Experimental results show that our generative saliency model with an energy-based prior can achieve not only accurate saliency predictions but also reliable uncertainty maps that are consistent with human perception.
A rising number of botnet families have been successfully detected using deep learning architectures. While the variety of attacks increases, these architectures should become more robust against attacks. They have been proven to be very sensitive to small but well constructed perturbations in the input. Botnet detection requires extremely low false-positive rates (FPR), which are not commonly attainable in contemporary deep learning. Attackers try to increase the FPRs by making poisoned samples. The majority of recent research has focused on the use of model loss functions to build adversarial examples and robust models. In this paper, two LSTM-based classification algorithms for botnet classification with an accuracy higher than 98\% are presented. Then, the adversarial attack is proposed, which reduces the accuracy to about30\%. Then, by examining the methods for computing the uncertainty, the defense method is proposed to increase the accuracy to about 70\%. By using the deep ensemble and stochastic weight averaging quantification methods it has been investigated the uncertainty of the accuracy in the proposed methods.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
It is expensive to evaluate the results of Machine Translation(MT), which usually requires manual translation as a reference. Machine Translation Quality Estimation (QE) is a task of predicting the quality of machine translations without relying on any reference. Recently, the emergence of predictor-estimator framework which trains the predictor as a feature extractor and estimator as a QE predictor, and pre-trained language models(PLM) have achieved promising QE performance. However, we argue that there are still gaps between the predictor and the estimator in both data quality and training objectives, which preclude QE models from benefiting from a large number of parallel corpora more directly. Based on previous related work that have alleviated gaps to some extent, we propose a novel framework that provides a more accurate direct pretraining for QE tasks. In this framework, a generator is trained to produce pseudo data that is closer to the real QE data, and a estimator is pretrained on these data with novel objectives that are the same as the QE task. Experiments on widely used benchmarks show that our proposed framework outperforms existing methods, without using any pretraining models such as BERT.
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive and in-vivo imaging technique essential for measuring brain activity. Functional connectivity is used to study associations between brain regions either at rest or while study subjects perform tasks. In this paper, we propose a rigorous definition of task-evoked functional connectivity at the population level (ptFC). Importantly, our proposed ptFC is interpretable in the context of task-fMRI studies. An algorithm for estimating ptFC is provided. We present the performance of the proposed algorithm compared to existing functional connectivity estimation approaches using simulations. Lastly, we apply the proposed framework to estimate task-evoked functional connectivity in a motor-task study from the Human Connectome Project.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191