The secretary problem is one of the fundamental problems in online decision making; a tight competitive ratio for this problem of $1/\mathrm{e} \approx 0.368$ has been known since the 1960s. Much more recently, the study of algorithms with predictions was introduced: The algorithm is equipped with a (possibly erroneous) additional piece of information upfront which can be used to improve the algorithm's performance. Complementing previous work on secretary problems with prior knowledge, we tackle the following question: What is the weakest piece of information that allows us to break the $1/\mathrm{e}$ barrier? To this end, we introduce the secretary problem with predicted additive gap. As in the classical problem, weights are fixed by an adversary and elements appear in random order. In contrast to previous variants of predictions, our algorithm only has access to a much weaker piece of information: an \emph{additive gap} $c$. This gap is the difference between the highest and $k$-th highest weight in the sequence. Unlike previous pieces of advice, knowing an exact additive gap does not make the problem trivial. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show that for any index $k$ and any gap $c$, we can obtain a competitive ratio of $0.4$ when knowing the exact gap (even if we do not know $k$), hence beating the prevalent bound for the classical problem by a constant. Second, a slightly modified version of our algorithm allows to prove standard robustness-consistency properties as well as improved guarantees when knowing a range for the error of the prediction.
Causal reasoning (CR) is a crucial aspect of intelligence, essential for problem-solving, decision-making, and understanding the world. While large language models (LLMs) can generate rationales for their outputs, their ability to reliably perform causal reasoning remains uncertain, often falling short in tasks requiring a deep understanding of causality. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of research aimed at enhancing LLMs for causal reasoning. We categorize existing methods based on the role of LLMs: either as reasoning engines or as helpers providing knowledge or data to traditional CR methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the methodologies in each category. We then evaluate the performance of LLMs on various causal reasoning tasks, providing key findings and in-depth analysis. Finally, we provide insights from current studies and highlight promising directions for future research. We aim for this work to serve as a comprehensive resource, fostering further advancements in causal reasoning with LLMs. Resources are available at //github.com/chendl02/Awesome-LLM-causal-reasoning.
Depth estimation under adverse conditions remains a significant challenge. Recently, multi-spectral depth estimation, which integrates both visible light and thermal images, has shown promise in addressing this issue. However, existing algorithms struggle with precise pixel-level feature matching, limiting their ability to fully exploit geometric constraints across different spectra. To address this, we propose a novel framework incorporating stereo depth estimation to enforce accurate geometric constraints. In particular, we treat the visible light and thermal images as a stereo pair and utilize a Cross-modal Feature Matching (CFM) Module to construct a cost volume for pixel-level matching. To mitigate the effects of poor lighting on stereo matching, we introduce Degradation Masking, which leverages robust monocular thermal depth estimation in degraded regions. Our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on the Multi-Spectral Stereo (MS2) dataset, with qualitative evaluations demonstrating high-quality depth maps under varying lighting conditions.
We consider the following well-studied problem of metric distortion in social choice. Suppose we have an election with $n$ voters and $m$ candidates located in a shared metric space. We would like to design a voting rule that chooses a candidate whose average distance to the voters is small. However, instead of having direct access to the distances in the metric space, the voting rule obtains, from each voter, a ranked list of the candidates in order of distance. Can we design a rule that regardless of the election instance and underlying metric space, chooses a candidate whose cost differs from the true optimum by only a small factor (known as the distortion)? A long line of work culminated in finding optimal deterministic voting rules with metric distortion $3$. However, for randomized voting rules, there is still a gap in our understanding: Even though the best lower bound is $2.112$, the best upper bound is still $3$, attained even by simple rules such as Random Dictatorship. Finding a randomized rule that guarantees distortion $3 - \epsilon$ has been a major challenge in computational social choice, as prevalent approaches to designing voting rules are known to be insufficient. Such a voting rule must use information beyond aggregate comparisons between pairs of candidates, and cannot only assign positive probability to candidates that are voters' top choices. In this work, we give a rule that guarantees distortion less than $2.753$. To do so we study a handful of voting rules that are new to the problem. One is Maximal Lotteries, a rule based on the Nash equilibrium of a natural zero-sum game which dates back to the 60's. The others are novel rules that can be thought of as hybrids of Random Dictatorship and the Copeland rule. Though none of these rules can beat distortion $3$ alone, a randomization between Maximal Lotteries and any of the novel rules can.
In the extensive recommender systems literature, novelty and diversity have been identified as key properties of useful recommendations. However, these properties have received limited attention in the specific sub-field of research paper recommender systems. In this work, we argue for the importance of offering novel and diverse research paper recommendations to scientists. This approach aims to reduce siloed reading, break down filter bubbles, and promote interdisciplinary research. We propose a novel framework for evaluating the novelty and diversity of research paper recommendations that leverages methods from network analysis and natural language processing. Using this framework, we show that the choice of representational method within a larger research paper recommendation system can have a measurable impact on the nature of downstream recommendations, specifically on their novelty and diversity. We highlight a novel paper embedding method, which we demonstrate offers more innovative and diverse recommendations without sacrificing precision, compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.
Doubly robust estimators have gained popularity in the field of causal inference due to their ability to provide consistent point estimates when either an outcome or exposure model is correctly specified. However, for nonrandomized exposures the influence function based variance estimator frequently used with doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect is only consistent when both working models (i.e., outcome and exposure models) are correctly specified. Here, the empirical sandwich variance estimator and the nonparametric bootstrap are demonstrated to be doubly robust variance estimators. That is, they are expected to provide valid estimates of the variance leading to nominal confidence interval coverage when only one working model is correctly specified. Simulation studies illustrate the properties of the influence function based, empirical sandwich, and nonparametric bootstrap variance estimators in the setting where parametric working models are assumed. Estimators are applied to data from the Improving Pregnancy Outcomes with Progesterone (IPOP) study to estimate the effect of maternal anemia on birth weight among women with HIV.
A community reveals the features and connections of its members that are different from those in other communities in a network. Detecting communities is of great significance in network analysis. Despite the classical spectral clustering and statistical inference methods, we notice a significant development of deep learning techniques for community detection in recent years with their advantages in handling high dimensional network data. Hence, a comprehensive overview of community detection's latest progress through deep learning is timely to both academics and practitioners. This survey devises and proposes a new taxonomy covering different categories of the state-of-the-art methods, including deep learning-based models upon deep neural networks, deep nonnegative matrix factorization and deep sparse filtering. The main category, i.e., deep neural networks, is further divided into convolutional networks, graph attention networks, generative adversarial networks and autoencoders. The survey also summarizes the popular benchmark data sets, model evaluation metrics, and open-source implementations to address experimentation settings. We then discuss the practical applications of community detection in various domains and point to implementation scenarios. Finally, we outline future directions by suggesting challenging topics in this fast-growing deep learning field.
The demand for artificial intelligence has grown significantly over the last decade and this growth has been fueled by advances in machine learning techniques and the ability to leverage hardware acceleration. However, in order to increase the quality of predictions and render machine learning solutions feasible for more complex applications, a substantial amount of training data is required. Although small machine learning models can be trained with modest amounts of data, the input for training larger models such as neural networks grows exponentially with the number of parameters. Since the demand for processing training data has outpaced the increase in computation power of computing machinery, there is a need for distributing the machine learning workload across multiple machines, and turning the centralized into a distributed system. These distributed systems present new challenges, first and foremost the efficient parallelization of the training process and the creation of a coherent model. This article provides an extensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in the field by outlining the challenges and opportunities of distributed machine learning over conventional (centralized) machine learning, discussing the techniques used for distributed machine learning, and providing an overview of the systems that are available.
Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.
Object detection is considered as one of the most challenging problems in computer vision, since it requires correct prediction of both classes and locations of objects in images. In this study, we define a more difficult scenario, namely zero-shot object detection (ZSD) where no visual training data is available for some of the target object classes. We present a novel approach to tackle this ZSD problem, where a convex combination of embeddings are used in conjunction with a detection framework. For evaluation of ZSD methods, we propose a simple dataset constructed from Fashion-MNIST images and also a custom zero-shot split for the Pascal VOC detection challenge. The experimental results suggest that our method yields promising results for ZSD.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.