We study an edge-weighted online stochastic \emph{Generalized Assignment Problem} with \emph{unknown} Poisson arrivals. In this model, we consider a bipartite graph that contains offline bins and online items, where each offline bin is associated with a $D$-dimensional capacity vector and each online item is with a $D$-dimensional demand vector. Online arrivals are sampled from a set of online item types which follow independent but not necessarily identical Poisson processes. The arrival rate for each Poisson process is unknown. Each online item will either be packed into an offline bin which will deduct the allocated bin's capacity vector and generate a reward, or be rejected. The decision should be made immediately and irrevocably upon its arrival. Our goal is to maximize the total reward of the allocation without violating the capacity constraints. We provide a sample-based multi-phase algorithm by utilizing both pre-existing offline data (named historical data) and sequentially revealed online data. We establish its performance guarantee measured by a competitive ratio. In a simplified setting where $D=1$ and all capacities and demands are equal to $1$, we prove that the ratio depends on the number of historical data size and the minimum number of arrivals for each online item type during the planning horizon, from which we analyze the effect of the historical data size and the Poisson arrival model on the algorithm's performance. We further generalize the algorithm to the general multidimensional and multi-demand setting, and present its parametric performance guarantee. The effect of the capacity's (demand's) dimension on the algorithm's performance is further analyzed based on the established parametric form. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms numerically.
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Population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM) aims to share valuable information among members of a population, such as normal- and damage-condition data, to improve inferences regarding the health states of the members. Even when the population is comprised of nominally-identical structures, benign variations among the members will exist as a result of slight differences in material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, or environmental effects (e.g., temperature changes). These discrepancies can affect modal properties and present as changes in the characteristics of the resonance peaks of the frequency response function (FRF). Many SHM strategies depend on monitoring the dynamic properties of structures, so benign variations can be challenging for the practical implementation of these systems. Another common challenge with vibration-based SHM is data loss, which may result from transmission issues, sensor failure, a sample-rate mismatch between sensors, and other causes. Missing data in the time domain will result in decreased resolution in the frequency domain, which can impair dynamic characterisation. The hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a useful modelling structure for PBSHM, because statistical distributions at the population and individual (or domain) level are learnt simultaneously to bolster statistical strength among the parameters. As a result, variance is reduced among the parameter estimates, particularly when data are limited. In this paper, combined probabilistic FRF models are developed for a small population of nominally-identical helicopter blades under varying temperature conditions, using a hierarchical Bayesian structure. These models address critical challenges in SHM, by accommodating benign variations that present as differences in the underlying dynamics, while also considering (and utilising), the similarities among the blades.
We investigate the mechanism design problem faced by a principal who hires \emph{multiple} agents to gather and report costly information. Then, the principal exploits the information to make an informed decision. We model this problem as a game, where the principal announces a mechanism consisting in action recommendations and a payment function, a.k.a. scoring rule. Then, each agent chooses an effort level and receives partial information about an underlying state of nature based on the effort. Finally, the agents report the information (possibly non-truthfully), the principal takes a decision based on this information, and the agents are paid according to the scoring rule. While previous work focuses on single-agent problems, we consider multi-agents settings. This poses the challenge of coordinating the agents' efforts and aggregating correlated information. Indeed, we show that optimal mechanisms must correlate agents' efforts, which introduces externalities among the agents, and hence complex incentive compatibility constraints and equilibrium selection problems. First, we design a polynomial-time algorithm to find an optimal incentive compatible mechanism. Then, we study an online problem, where the principal repeatedly interacts with a group of unknown agents. We design a no-regret algorithm that provides $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$ regret with respect to an optimal mechanism, matching the state-of-the-art bound for single-agent settings.
We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This assumption is difficult to justify in many inverse problems, where the specification of the data generation process is not obvious. We adopt a Gibbs posterior framework that directly posits a regularized variational problem on the space of probability distributions of the parameter. We propose a novel model comparison framework that evaluates the optimality of a given loss based on its ''predictive performance''. We provide cross-validation procedures to calibrate the regularization parameter of the variational objective and compare multiple loss functions. Some novel theoretical properties of Gibbs posteriors are also presented. We illustrate the utility of our framework via a simulated example, motivated by dispersion-based wave models used to characterize arterial vessels in ultrasound vibrometry.
Many applications such as recommendation systems or sports tournaments involve pairwise comparisons within a collection of $n$ items, the goal being to aggregate the binary outcomes of the comparisons in order to recover the latent strength and/or global ranking of the items. In recent years, this problem has received significant interest from a theoretical perspective with a number of methods being proposed, along with associated statistical guarantees under the assumption of a suitable generative model. While these results typically collect the pairwise comparisons as one comparison graph $G$, however in many applications - such as the outcomes of soccer matches during a tournament - the nature of pairwise outcomes can evolve with time. Theoretical results for such a dynamic setting are relatively limited compared to the aforementioned static setting. We study in this paper an extension of the classic BTL (Bradley-Terry-Luce) model for the static setting to our dynamic setup under the assumption that the probabilities of the pairwise outcomes evolve smoothly over the time domain $[0,1]$. Given a sequence of comparison graphs $(G_{t'})_{t' \in \mathcal{T}}$ on a regular grid $\mathcal{T} \subset [0,1]$, we aim at recovering the latent strengths of the items $w_t^* \in \mathbb{R}^n$ at any time $t \in [0,1]$. To this end, we adapt the Rank Centrality method - a popular spectral approach for ranking in the static case - by locally averaging the available data on a suitable neighborhood of $t$. When $(G_{t'})_{t' \in \mathcal{T}}$ is a sequence of Erd\"os-Renyi graphs, we provide non-asymptotic $\ell_2$ and $\ell_{\infty}$ error bounds for estimating $w_t^*$ which in particular establishes the consistency of this method in terms of $n$, and the grid size $\lvert\mathcal{T}\rvert$. We also complement our theoretical analysis with experiments on real and synthetic data.
This study explores the intricacies of waiting games, a novel dynamic that emerged with Ethereum's transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS)-based block proposer selection protocol. Within this PoS framework, validators acquire a distinct monopoly position during their assigned slots, given that block proposal rights are set deterministically, contrasting with Proof-of-Work (PoW) protocols. Consequently, validators have the power to delay block proposals, stepping outside the honest validator specs, optimizing potential returns through MEV payments. Nonetheless, this strategic behaviour introduces the risk of orphaning if attestors fail to observe and vote on the block timely. Our quantitative analysis of this waiting phenomenon and its associated risks reveals an opportunity for enhanced MEV extraction, exceeding standard protocol rewards, and providing sufficient incentives for validators to play the game. Notably, our findings indicate that delayed proposals do not always result in orphaning and orphaned blocks are not consistently proposed later than non-orphaned ones. To further examine consensus stability under varying network conditions, we adopt an agent-based simulation model tailored for PoS-Ethereum, illustrating that consensus disruption will not be observed unless significant delay strategies are adopted. Ultimately, this research offers valuable insights into the advent of waiting games on Ethereum, providing a comprehensive understanding of trade-offs and potential profits for validators within the blockchain ecosystem.
Autism, also known as Autism Spectrum Disorder (or ASD), is a neurological disorder. Its main symptoms include difficulty in (verbal and/or non-verbal) communication, and rigid/repetitive behavior. These symptoms are often indistinguishable from a normal (control) individual, due to which this disorder remains undiagnosed in early childhood leading to delayed treatment. Since the learning curve is steep during the initial age, an early diagnosis of autism could allow to take adequate interventions at the right time, which might positively affect the growth of an autistic child. Further, the traditional methods of autism diagnosis require multiple visits to a specialized psychiatrist, however this process can be time-consuming. In this paper, we present a learning based approach to automate autism diagnosis using simple and small action video clips of subjects. This task is particularly challenging because the amount of annotated data available is small, and the variations among samples from the two categories (ASD and control) are generally indistinguishable. This is also evident from poor performance of a binary classifier learned using the cross-entropy loss on top of a baseline encoder. To address this, we adopt contrastive feature learning in both self supervised and supervised learning frameworks, and show that these can lead to a significant increase in the prediction accuracy of a binary classifier on this task. We further validate this by conducting thorough experimental analyses under different set-ups on two publicly available datasets.
This paper introduces a local search method for improving an existing program with respect to a measurable objective. Program Optimization with Locally Improving Search (POLIS) exploits the structure of a program, defined by its lines. POLIS improves a single line of the program while keeping the remaining lines fixed, using existing brute-force synthesis algorithms, and continues iterating until it is unable to improve the program's performance. POLIS was evaluated with a 27-person user study, where participants wrote programs attempting to maximize the score of two single-agent games: Lunar Lander and Highway. POLIS was able to substantially improve the participants' programs with respect to the game scores. A proof-of-concept demonstration on existing Stack Overflow code measures applicability in real-world problems. These results suggest that POLIS could be used as a helpful programming assistant for programming problems with measurable objectives.
This work, for the first time, introduces two constant factor approximation algorithms with linear query complexity for non-monotone submodular maximization over a ground set of size $n$ subject to a knapsack constraint, $\mathsf{DLA}$ and $\mathsf{RLA}$. $\mathsf{DLA}$ is a deterministic algorithm that provides an approximation factor of $6+\epsilon$ while $\mathsf{RLA}$ is a randomized algorithm with an approximation factor of $4+\epsilon$. Both run in $O(n \log(1/\epsilon)/\epsilon)$ query complexity. The key idea to obtain a constant approximation ratio with linear query lies in: (1) dividing the ground set into two appropriate subsets to find the near-optimal solution over these subsets with linear queries, and (2) combining a threshold greedy with properties of two disjoint sets or a random selection process to improve solution quality. In addition to the theoretical analysis, we have evaluated our proposed solutions with three applications: Revenue Maximization, Image Summarization, and Maximum Weighted Cut, showing that our algorithms not only return comparative results to state-of-the-art algorithms but also require significantly fewer queries.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly being deployed to perform safety-critical tasks. The opacity of DNNs, which prevents humans from reasoning about them, presents new safety and security challenges. To address these challenges, the verification community has begun developing techniques for rigorously analyzing DNNs, with numerous verification algorithms proposed in recent years. While a significant amount of work has gone into developing these verification algorithms, little work has been devoted to rigorously studying the computability and complexity of the underlying theoretical problems. Here, we seek to contribute to the bridging of this gap. We focus on two kinds of DNNs: those that employ piecewise-linear activation functions (e.g., ReLU), and those that employ piecewise-smooth activation functions (e.g., Sigmoids). We prove the two following theorems: 1) The decidability of verifying DNNs with a particular set of piecewise-smooth activation functions is equivalent to a well-known, open problem formulated by Tarski; and 2) The DNN verification problem for any quantifier-free linear arithmetic specification can be reduced to the DNN reachability problem, whose approximation is NP-complete. These results answer two fundamental questions about the computability and complexity of DNN verification, and the ways it is affected by the network's activation functions and error tolerance; and could help guide future efforts in developing DNN verification tools.
Traditionally, the Bayesian optimal auction design problem has been considered either when the bidder values are i.i.d., or when each bidder is individually identifiable via her value distribution. The latter is a reasonable approach when the bidders can be classified into a few categories, but there are many instances where the classification of bidders is a continuum. For example, the classification of the bidders may be based on their annual income, their propensity to buy an item based on past behavior, or in the case of ad auctions, the click through rate of their ads. We introduce an alternate model that captures this aspect, where bidders are \emph{a priori} identical, but can be distinguished based (only) on some side information the auctioneer obtains at the time of the auction. We extend the sample complexity approach of Dhangwatnotai, Roughgarden, and Yan (2014) and Cole and Roughgarden (2014) to this model and obtain almost matching upper and lower bounds. As an aside, we obtain a revenue monotonicity lemma which may be of independent interest. We also show how to use Empirical Risk Minimization techniques to improve the sample complexity bound of Cole and Roughgarden (2014) for the non-identical but independent value distribution case.
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