This paper extends standard results from learning theory with independent data to sequences of dependent data. Contrary to most of the literature, we do not rely on mixing arguments or sequential measures of complexity and derive uniform risk bounds with classical proof patterns and capacity measures. In particular, we show that the standard classification risk bounds based on the VC-dimension hold in the exact same form for dependent data, and further provide Rademacher complexity-based bounds, that remain unchanged compared to the standard results for the identically and independently distributed case. Finally, we show how to apply these results in the context of scenario-based optimization in order to compute the sample complexity of random programs with dependent constraints.
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Several kernel based testing procedures are proposed to solve the problem of model selection in the presence of parameter estimation in a family of candidate models. Extending the two sample test of Gretton et al. (2006), we first provide a way of testing whether some data is drawn from a given parametric model (model specification). Second, we provide a test statistic to decide whether two parametric models are equally valid to describe some data (model comparison), in the spirit of Vuong (1989). All our tests are asymptotically standard normal under the null, even when the true underlying distribution belongs to the competing parametric families.Some simulations illustrate the performance of our tests in terms of power and level.
Opinion diffusion is a crucial phenomenon in social networks, often underlying the way in which a collective of agents develops a consensus on relevant decisions. The voter model is a well-known theoretical model to study opinion spreading in social networks and structured populations. Its simplest version assumes that an updating agent will adopt the opinion of a neighboring agent chosen at random. The model allows us to study, for example, the probability that a certain opinion will fixate into a consensus opinion, as well as the expected time it takes for a consensus opinion to emerge. Standard voter models are oblivious to the opinions held by the agents involved in the opinion adoption process. We propose and study a context-dependent opinion spreading process on an arbitrary social graph, in which the probability that an agent abandons opinion $a$ in favor of opinion $b$ depends on both $a$ and $b$. We discuss the relations of the model with existing voter models and then derive theoretical results for both the fixation probability and the expected consensus time for two opinions, for both the synchronous and the asynchronous update models.
Physical models with uncertain inputs are commonly represented as parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). That is, PDEs with inputs that are expressed as functions of parameters with an associated probability distribution. Developing efficient and accurate solution strategies that account for errors on the space, time and parameter domains simultaneously is highly challenging. Indeed, it is well known that standard polynomial-based approximations on the parameter domain can incur errors that grow in time. In this work, we focus on advection-diffusion problems with parameter-dependent wind fields. A novel adaptive solution strategy is proposed that allows users to combine stochastic collocation on the parameter domain with off-the-shelf adaptive timestepping algorithms with local error control. This is a non-intrusive strategy that builds a polynomial-based surrogate that is adapted sequentially in time. The algorithm is driven by a so-called hierarchical estimator for the parametric error and balances this against an estimate for the global timestepping error which is derived from a scaling argument.
We develop the first active learning method in the predict-then-optimize framework. Specifically, we develop a learning method that sequentially decides whether to request the "labels" of feature samples from an unlabeled data stream, where the labels correspond to the parameters of an optimization model for decision-making. Our active learning method is the first to be directly informed by the decision error induced by the predicted parameters, which is referred to as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss. Motivated by the structure of the SPO loss, our algorithm adopts a margin-based criterion utilizing the concept of distance to degeneracy and minimizes a tractable surrogate of the SPO loss on the collected data. In particular, we develop an efficient active learning algorithm with both hard and soft rejection variants, each with theoretical excess risk (i.e., generalization) guarantees. We further derive bounds on the label complexity, which refers to the number of samples whose labels are acquired to achieve a desired small level of SPO risk. Under some natural low-noise conditions, we show that these bounds can be better than the naive supervised learning approach that labels all samples. Furthermore, when using the SPO+ loss function, a specialized surrogate of the SPO loss, we derive a significantly smaller label complexity under separability conditions. We also present numerical evidence showing the practical value of our proposed algorithms in the settings of personalized pricing and the shortest path problem.
We obtain bounds to quantify the distributional approximation in the delta method for vector statistics (the sample mean of $n$ independent random vectors) for normal and non-normal limits, measured using smooth test functions. For normal limits, we obtain bounds of the optimal order $n^{-1/2}$ rate of convergence, but for a wide class of non-normal limits, which includes quadratic forms amongst others, we achieve bounds with a faster order $n^{-1}$ convergence rate. We apply our general bounds to derive explicit bounds to quantify distributional approximations of an estimator for Bernoulli variance, several statistics of sample moments, order $n^{-1}$ bounds for the chi-square approximation of a family of rank-based statistics, and we also provide an efficient independent derivation of an order $n^{-1}$ bound for the chi-square approximation of Pearson's statistic. In establishing our general results, we generalise recent results on Stein's method for functions of multivariate normal random vectors to vector-valued functions and sums of independent random vectors whose components may be dependent. These bounds are widely applicable and are of independent interest.
We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by introducing an initial "deflation" step to the standard generic chaining argument. The resulting tail bound has a main complexity component, a variant of Talagrand's $\gamma$ functional for the deflated function class, as well as an instance-dependent deviation term, measured by an appropriately scaled version of a suitable norm. Both of these terms are expressed using certain coefficients formulated based on the relevant cumulant generating functions. We also provide more explicit approximations for the mentioned coefficients, when the function class lies in a given (exponential type) Orlicz space.
High complexity models are notorious in machine learning for overfitting, a phenomenon in which models well represent data but fail to generalize an underlying data generating process. A typical procedure for circumventing overfitting computes empirical risk on a holdout set and halts once (or flags that/when) it begins to increase. Such practice often helps in outputting a well-generalizing model, but justification for why it works is primarily heuristic. We discuss the overfitting problem and explain why standard asymptotic and concentration results do not hold for evaluation with training data. We then proceed to introduce and argue for a hypothesis test by means of which both model performance may be evaluated using training data, and overfitting quantitatively defined and detected. We rely on said concentration bounds which guarantee that empirical means should, with high probability, approximate their true mean to conclude that they should approximate each other. We stipulate conditions under which this test is valid, describe how the test may be used for identifying overfitting, articulate a further nuance according to which distributional shift may be flagged, and highlight an alternative notion of learning which usefully captures generalization in the absence of uniform PAC guarantees.
We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have shown dramatic improvements in single image super-resolution (SISR) by using large-scale external samples. Despite their remarkable performance based on the external dataset, they cannot exploit internal information within a specific image. Another problem is that they are applicable only to the specific condition of data that they are supervised. For instance, the low-resolution (LR) image should be a "bicubic" downsampled noise-free image from a high-resolution (HR) one. To address both issues, zero-shot super-resolution (ZSSR) has been proposed for flexible internal learning. However, they require thousands of gradient updates, i.e., long inference time. In this paper, we present Meta-Transfer Learning for Zero-Shot Super-Resolution (MZSR), which leverages ZSSR. Precisely, it is based on finding a generic initial parameter that is suitable for internal learning. Thus, we can exploit both external and internal information, where one single gradient update can yield quite considerable results. (See Figure 1). With our method, the network can quickly adapt to a given image condition. In this respect, our method can be applied to a large spectrum of image conditions within a fast adaptation process.
In structure learning, the output is generally a structure that is used as supervision information to achieve good performance. Considering the interpretation of deep learning models has raised extended attention these years, it will be beneficial if we can learn an interpretable structure from deep learning models. In this paper, we focus on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) whose inner mechanism is still not clearly understood. We find that Finite State Automaton (FSA) that processes sequential data has more interpretable inner mechanism and can be learned from RNNs as the interpretable structure. We propose two methods to learn FSA from RNN based on two different clustering methods. We first give the graphical illustration of FSA for human beings to follow, which shows the interpretability. From the FSA's point of view, we then analyze how the performance of RNNs are affected by the number of gates, as well as the semantic meaning behind the transition of numerical hidden states. Our results suggest that RNNs with simple gated structure such as Minimal Gated Unit (MGU) is more desirable and the transitions in FSA leading to specific classification result are associated with corresponding words which are understandable by human beings.
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