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Time-to-event estimands are central to many oncology clinical trials. The estimand framework (addendum to the ICH E9 guideline) calls for precisely defining the treatment effect of interest to align with the clinical question of interest and requires predefining the handling of intercurrent events that occur after treatment initiation and either preclude the observation of an event of interest or impact the interpretation of the treatment effect. We discuss a practical problem in clinical trial design and execution, i.e. in some clinical contexts it is not feasible to systematically follow patients to an event of interest. Loss to follow-up in the presence of intercurrent events can affect the meaning and interpretation of the study results. We provide recommendations for trial design, stressing the need for close alignment of the clinical question of interest and study design, impact on data collection and other practical implications. When patients cannot be systematically followed, compromise may be necessary to select the best available estimand that can be feasibly estimated under the circumstances. We discuss the use of sensitivity and supplementary analyses to examine assumptions of interest.

The empirical validation of models remains one of the most important challenges in opinion dynamics. In this contribution, we report on recent developments on combining data from survey experiments with computational models of opinion formation. We extend previous work on the empirical assessment of an argument-based model for opinion dynamics in which biased processing is the principle mechanism. While previous work (Banisch & Shamon, in press) has focused on calibrating the micro mechanism with experimental data on argument-induced opinion change, this paper concentrates on the macro level using the empirical data gathered in the survey experiment. For this purpose, the argument model is extended by an external source of balanced information which allows to control for the impact of peer influence processes relative to other noisy processes. We show that surveyed opinion distributions are matched with a high level of accuracy in a specific region in the parameter space, indicating an equal impact of social influence and external noise. More importantly, the estimated strength of biased processing given the macro data is compatible with those values that achieve high likelihood at the micro level. The main contribution of the paper is hence to show that the extended argument-based model provides a solid bridge from the micro processes of argument-induced attitude change to macro level opinion distributions. Beyond that, we review the development of argument-based models and present a new method for the automated classification of model outcomes.

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.

We study partially linear models in settings where observations are arranged in independent groups but may exhibit within-group dependence. Existing approaches estimate linear model parameters through weighted least squares, with optimal weights (given by the inverse covariance of the response, conditional on the covariates) typically estimated by maximising a (restricted) likelihood from random effects modelling or by using generalised estimating equations. We introduce a new 'sandwich loss' whose population minimiser coincides with the weights of these approaches when the parametric forms for the conditional covariance are well-specified, but can yield arbitrarily large improvements in linear parameter estimation accuracy when they are not. Under relatively mild conditions, our estimated coefficients are asymptotically Gaussian and enjoy minimal variance among estimators with weights restricted to a given class of functions, when user-chosen regression methods are used to estimate nuisance functions. We further expand the class of functional forms for the weights that may be fitted beyond parametric models by leveraging the flexibility of modern machine learning methods within a new gradient boosting scheme for minimising the sandwich loss. We demonstrate the effectiveness of both the sandwich loss and what we call 'sandwich boosting' in a variety of settings with simulated and real-world data.

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. While sensible in some settings, this approach has obvious drawbacks. Recent research has demonstrated that active subspace calculations can be obtained in closed form, conditional on a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate, which can be limiting in high-dimensional settings for computational reasons. In this paper, we produce the relevant calculations for a more general case when the model of interest is a linear combination of tensor products. These general equations can be applied to the GP, recovering previous results as a special case, or applied to the models constructed by other regression techniques including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. In one real-world example, we obtain the active subspace of a radiation-transport code with 240 inputs and 9,372 model runs in under half an hour.

When estimating an effect of an action with a randomized or observational study, that study is often not a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population. However, transportability methods generally rely on a positivity assumption, such that all relevant covariate patterns in the target population are also observed in the study sample. Strict eligibility criteria, particularly in the context of randomized trials, may lead to violations of this assumption. Two common approaches to address positivity violations are restricting the target population and restricting the relevant covariate set. As neither of these restrictions are ideal, we instead propose a synthesis of statistical and simulation models to address positivity violations. We propose corresponding g-computation and inverse probability weighting estimators. The restriction and synthesis approaches to addressing positivity violations are contrasted with a simulation experiment and an illustrative example in the context of sexually transmitted infection testing uptake. In both cases, the proposed synthesis approach accurately addressed the original research question when paired with a thoughtfully selected simulation model. Neither of the restriction approaches were able to accurately address the motivating question. As public health decisions must often be made with imperfect target population information, model synthesis is a viable approach given a combination of empirical data and external information based on the best available knowledge.

We propose a visualization method to understand the effect of multidimensional projection on local subspaces, using implicit function differentiation. Here, we understand the local subspace as the multidimensional local neighborhood of data points. Existing methods focus on the projection of multidimensional data points, and the neighborhood information is ignored. Our method is able to analyze the shape and directional information of the local subspace to gain more insights into the global structure of the data through the perception of local structures. Local subspaces are fitted by multidimensional ellipses that are spanned by basis vectors. An accurate and efficient vector transformation method is proposed based on analytical differentiation of multidimensional projections formulated as implicit functions. The results are visualized as glyphs and analyzed using a full set of specifically-designed interactions supported in our efficient web-based visualization tool. The usefulness of our method is demonstrated using various multi- and high-dimensional benchmark datasets. Our implicit differentiation vector transformation is evaluated through numerical comparisons; the overall method is evaluated through exploration examples and use cases.

Recent advances in neuroscientific experimental techniques have enabled us to simultaneously record the activity of thousands of neurons across multiple brain regions. This has led to a growing need for computational tools capable of analyzing how task-relevant information is represented and communicated between several brain regions. Partial information decompositions (PIDs) have emerged as one such tool, quantifying how much unique, redundant and synergistic information two or more brain regions carry about a task-relevant message. However, computing PIDs is computationally challenging in practice, and statistical issues such as the bias and variance of estimates remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a new method for efficiently computing and estimating a PID definition on multivariate Gaussian distributions. We show empirically that our method satisfies an intuitive additivity property, and recovers the ground truth in a battery of canonical examples, even at high dimensionality. We also propose and evaluate, for the first time, a method to correct the bias in PID estimates at finite sample sizes. Finally, we demonstrate that our Gaussian PID effectively characterizes inter-areal interactions in the mouse brain, revealing higher redundancy between visual areas when a stimulus is behaviorally relevant.

Most algorithms for representation learning and link prediction in relational data have been designed for static data. However, the data they are applied to usually evolves with time, such as friend graphs in social networks or user interactions with items in recommender systems. This is also the case for knowledge bases, which contain facts such as (US, has president, B. Obama, [2009-2017]) that are valid only at certain points in time. For the problem of link prediction under temporal constraints, i.e., answering queries such as (US, has president, ?, 2012), we propose a solution inspired by the canonical decomposition of tensors of order 4. We introduce new regularization schemes and present an extension of ComplEx (Trouillon et al., 2016) that achieves state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, we propose a new dataset for knowledge base completion constructed from Wikidata, larger than previous benchmarks by an order of magnitude, as a new reference for evaluating temporal and non-temporal link prediction methods.

Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.