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Local patterns play an important role in statistical physics as well as in image processing. Two-dimensional ordinal patterns were studied by Ribeiro et al. who determined permutation entropy and complexity in order to classify paintings and images of liquid crystals. Here we find that the 2 by 2 patterns of neighboring pixels come in three types. The statistics of these types, expressed by two parameters, contains the relevant information to describe and distinguish textures. The parameters are most stable and informative for isotropic structures.

In models of opinion dynamics, many parameters -- either in the form of constants or in the form of functions -- play a critical role in describing, calibrating, and forecasting how opinions change with time. When examining a model of opinion dynamics, it is beneficial to infer its parameters using empirical data. In this paper, we study an example of such an inference problem. We consider a mean-field bounded-confidence model with an unknown interaction kernel between individuals. This interaction kernel encodes how individuals with different opinions interact and affect each other's opinions. It is often difficult to quantitatively measure social opinions as empirical data from observations or experiments, so we assume that the available data takes the form of partial observations of the cumulative distribution function of opinions. We prove that certain measurements guarantee a precise and unique inference of the interaction kernel and propose a numerical method to reconstruct an interaction kernel from a limited number of data points. Our numerical results suggest that the error of the inferred interaction kernel decays exponentially as we strategically enlarge the data set.

This paper investigates the Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) in a communication system whose channel suffers a random delay. We consider a slotted-time system where a transmitter observes a dynamic source and decides when to send updates to a remote receiver through the communication channel. The threshold policy, under which the transmitter initiates transmission only when the AoII exceeds the threshold, governs the transmitter's decision. In this paper, we analyze and calculate the performance of the threshold policy in terms of the achieved AoII. Using the Markov chain to characterize the system evolution, the expected AoII can be obtained precisely by solving a system of linear equations whose size is finite and depends on the threshold. We also give closed-form expressions of the expected AoII under two particular thresholds. Finally, calculation results show that there are better strategies than the transmitter constantly transmitting new updates.

Consider an agent exploring an unknown graph in search of some goal state. As it walks around the graph, it learns the nodes and their neighbors. The agent only knows where the goal state is when it reaches it. How do we reach this goal while moving only a small distance? This problem seems hopeless, even on trees of bounded degree, unless we give the agent some help. This setting with ''help'' often arises in exploring large search spaces (e.g., huge game trees) where we assume access to some score/quality function for each node, which we use to guide us towards the goal. In our case, we assume the help comes in the form of distance predictions: each node $v$ provides a prediction $f(v)$ of its distance to the goal vertex. Naturally if these predictions are correct, we can reach the goal along a shortest path. What if the predictions are unreliable and some of them are erroneous? Can we get an algorithm whose performance relates to the error of the predictions? In this work, we consider the problem on trees and give deterministic algorithms whose total movement cost is only $O(OPT + \Delta \cdot ERR)$, where $OPT$ is the distance from the start to the goal vertex, $\Delta$ the maximum degree, and the $ERR$ is the total number of vertices whose predictions are erroneous. We show this guarantee is optimal. We then consider a ''planning'' version of the problem where the graph and predictions are known at the beginning, so the agent can use this global information to devise a search strategy of low cost. For this planning version, we go beyond trees and give an algorithms which gets good performance on (weighted) graphs with bounded doubling dimension.

This work is about recovering an analysis-sparse vector, i.e. sparse vector in some transform domain, from under-sampled measurements. In real-world applications, there often exist random analysis-sparse vectors whose distribution in the analysis domain are known. To exploit this information, a weighted $\ell_1$ analysis minimization is often considered. The task of choosing the weights in this case is however challenging and non-trivial. In this work, we provide an analytical method to choose the suitable weights. Specifically, we first obtain a tight upper-bound expression for the expected number of required measurements. This bound depends on two critical parameters: support distribution and expected sign of the analysis domain which are both accessible in advance. Then, we calculate the near-optimal weights by minimizing this expression with respect to the weights. Our strategy works for both noiseless and noisy settings. Numerical results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method. Specifically, the weighted $\ell_1$ analysis minimization with our near-optimal weighting design considerably needs fewer measurements than its regular $\ell_1$ analysis counterpart.

In this paper, we develop a discrete time stochastic model under partial information to explain the evolution of Covid-19 pandemic. Our model is a modification of the well-known SIR model for epidemics, which accounts for some peculiar features of Covid-19. In particular, we work with a random transmission rate and we assume that the true number of infectious people at any observation time is random and not directly observable, to account for asymptomatic and non-tested people. We elaborate a nested particle filtering approach to estimate the reproduction rate and the model parameters. We apply our methodology to Austrian Covid-19 infection data in the period from May 2020 to June 2022. Finally, we discuss forecasts and model tests.

High-dimensional data are commonly seen in modern statistical applications, variable selection methods play indispensable roles in identifying the critical features for scientific discoveries. Traditional best subset selection methods are computationally intractable with a large number of features, while regularization methods such as Lasso, SCAD and their variants perform poorly in ultrahigh-dimensional data due to low computational efficiency and unstable algorithm. Sure screening methods have become popular alternatives by first rapidly reducing the dimension using simple measures such as marginal correlation then applying any regularization methods. A number of screening methods for different models or problems have been developed, however, none of the methods have targeted at data with heavy tailedness, which is another important characteristics of modern big data. In this paper, we propose a robust distance correlation (``RDC'') based sure screening method to perform screening in ultrahigh-dimensional regression with heavy-tailed data. The proposed method shares the same good properties as the original model-free distance correlation based screening while has additional merit of robustly estimating the distance correlation when data is heavy-tailed and improves the model selection performance in screening. We conducted extensive simulations under different scenarios of heavy tailedness to demonstrate the advantage of our proposed procedure as compared to other existing model-based or model-free screening procedures with improved feature selection and prediction performance. We also applied the method to high-dimensional heavy-tailed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) pancreatic cancer cohort and RDC was shown to outperform the other methods in prioritizing the most essential and biologically meaningful genes.

Since the cyberspace consolidated as fifth warfare dimension, the different actors of the defense sector began an arms race toward achieving cyber superiority, on which research, academic and industrial stakeholders contribute from a dual vision, mostly linked to a large and heterogeneous heritage of developments and adoption of civilian cybersecurity capabilities. In this context, augmenting the conscious of the context and warfare environment, risks and impacts of cyber threats on kinetic actuations became a critical rule-changer that military decision-makers are considering. A major challenge on acquiring mission-centric Cyber Situational Awareness (CSA) is the dynamic inference and assessment of the vertical propagations from situations that occurred at the mission supportive Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), up to their relevance at military tactical, operational and strategical views. In order to contribute on acquiring CSA, this paper addresses a major gap in the cyber defence state-of-the-art: the dynamic identification of Key Cyber Terrains (KCT) on a mission-centric context. Accordingly, the proposed KCT identification approach explores the dependency degrees among tasks and assets defined by commanders as part of the assessment criteria. These are correlated with the discoveries on the operational network and the asset vulnerabilities identified thorough the supported mission development. The proposal is presented as a reference model that reveals key aspects for mission-centric KCT analysis and supports its enforcement and further enforcement by including an illustrative application case.

As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have received considerable attention on graph-structured data learning for a wide variety of tasks. The well-designed propagation mechanism which has been demonstrated effective is the most fundamental part of GNNs. Although most of GNNs basically follow a message passing manner, litter effort has been made to discover and analyze their essential relations. In this paper, we establish a surprising connection between different propagation mechanisms with a unified optimization problem, showing that despite the proliferation of various GNNs, in fact, their proposed propagation mechanisms are the optimal solution optimizing a feature fitting function over a wide class of graph kernels with a graph regularization term. Our proposed unified optimization framework, summarizing the commonalities between several of the most representative GNNs, not only provides a macroscopic view on surveying the relations between different GNNs, but also further opens up new opportunities for flexibly designing new GNNs. With the proposed framework, we discover that existing works usually utilize naive graph convolutional kernels for feature fitting function, and we further develop two novel objective functions considering adjustable graph kernels showing low-pass or high-pass filtering capabilities respectively. Moreover, we provide the convergence proofs and expressive power comparisons for the proposed models. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets clearly show that the proposed GNNs not only outperform the state-of-the-art methods but also have good ability to alleviate over-smoothing, and further verify the feasibility for designing GNNs with our unified optimization framework.