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Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in the sense that the similarity of the data helps to determine how much information is used. In the time to event setting with one historical data set, a popular model for a range of baseline hazards is the piecewise exponential model where the time points are fixed and a borrowing structure is imposed on the model. Although convenient for implementation this approach effects the borrowing capability of the model. We propose a Bayesian model which allows the time points to vary and a dependency to be placed between the baseline hazards. This serves to smooth the posterior baseline hazard improving both model estimation and borrowing characteristics. We explore a variety of prior structures for the borrowing within our proposed model and assess their performance against established approaches. We demonstrate that this leads to improved type I error in the presence of prior data conflict and increased power. We have developed accompanying software which is freely available and enables easy implementation of the approach.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely-used tools in spatial statistics and machine learning and the formulae for the mean function and covariance kernel of a GP $T u$ that is the image of another GP $u$ under a linear transformation $T$ acting on the sample paths of $u$ are well known, almost to the point of being folklore. However, these formulae are often used without rigorous attention to technical details, particularly when $T$ is an unbounded operator such as a differential operator, which is common in many modern applications. This note provides a self-contained proof of the claimed formulae for the case of a closed, densely-defined operator $T$ acting on the sample paths of a square-integrable (not necessarily Gaussian) stochastic process. Our proof technique relies upon Hille's theorem for the Bochner integral of a Banach-valued random variable.

Adversarial generative models, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), are widely applied for generating various types of data, i.e., images, text, and audio. Accordingly, its promising performance has led to the GAN-based adversarial attack methods in the white-box and black-box attack scenarios. The importance of transferable black-box attacks lies in their ability to be effective across different models and settings, more closely aligning with real-world applications. However, it remains challenging to retain the performance in terms of transferable adversarial examples for such methods. Meanwhile, we observe that some enhanced gradient-based transferable adversarial attack algorithms require prolonged time for adversarial sample generation. Thus, in this work, we propose a novel algorithm named GE-AdvGAN to enhance the transferability of adversarial samples whilst improving the algorithm's efficiency. The main approach is via optimising the training process of the generator parameters. With the functional and characteristic similarity analysis, we introduce a novel gradient editing (GE) mechanism and verify its feasibility in generating transferable samples on various models. Moreover, by exploring the frequency domain information to determine the gradient editing direction, GE-AdvGAN can generate highly transferable adversarial samples while minimizing the execution time in comparison to the state-of-the-art transferable adversarial attack algorithms. The performance of GE-AdvGAN is comprehensively evaluated by large-scale experiments on different datasets, which results demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm. The code for our algorithm is available at: //github.com/LMBTough/GE-advGAN

Incorporating prior knowledge into pre-trained language models has proven to be effective for knowledge-driven NLP tasks, such as entity typing and relation extraction. Current pre-training procedures usually inject external knowledge into models by using knowledge masking, knowledge fusion and knowledge replacement. However, factual information contained in the input sentences have not been fully mined, and the external knowledge for injecting have not been strictly checked. As a result, the context information cannot be fully exploited and extra noise will be introduced or the amount of knowledge injected is limited. To address these issues, we propose MLRIP, which modifies the knowledge masking strategies proposed by ERNIE-Baidu, and introduce a two-stage entity replacement strategy. Extensive experiments with comprehensive analyses illustrate the superiority of MLRIP over BERT-based models in military knowledge-driven NLP tasks.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.

We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.