In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are state-of-the-art in modeling aleatoric uncertainty. The ensembles are created via sets of fixed dropout masks, making them less expensive than creating separate NF models. We demonstrate how to leverage the unique structure of NFs, base distributions, to estimate aleatoric uncertainty without relying on samples, provide a comprehensive set of baselines, and derive unbiased estimates for differential entropy. The methods were applied to a variety of experiments, commonly used to benchmark aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation: 1D sinusoidal data, 2D windy grid-world ($\it{Wet Chicken}$), $\it{Pendulum}$, and $\it{Hopper}$. In these experiments, we setup an active learning framework and evaluate each model's capability at measuring aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The results show the advantages of using NF ensembles in capturing complicated aleatoric while maintaining accurate epistemic uncertainty estimates.
相關內容
Test-Time-Training (TTT) is an approach to cope with out-of-distribution (OOD) data by adapting a trained model to distribution shifts occurring at test-time. We propose to perform this adaptation via Activation Matching (ActMAD): We analyze activations of the model and align activation statistics of the OOD test data to those of the training data. In contrast to existing methods, which model the distribution of entire channels in the ultimate layer of the feature extractor, we model the distribution of each feature in multiple layers across the network. This results in a more fine-grained supervision and makes ActMAD attain state of the art performance on CIFAR-100C and Imagenet-C. ActMAD is also architecture- and task-agnostic, which lets us go beyond image classification, and score 15.4% improvement over previous approaches when evaluating a KITTI-trained object detector on KITTI-Fog. Our experiments highlight that ActMAD can be applied to online adaptation in realistic scenarios, requiring little data to attain its full performance.
Out of distribution (OOD) medical images are frequently encountered, e.g. because of site- or scanner differences, or image corruption. OOD images come with a risk of incorrect image segmentation, potentially negatively affecting downstream diagnoses or treatment. To ensure robustness to such incorrect segmentations, we propose Laplacian Segmentation Networks (LSN) that jointly model epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty in image segmentation. We capture data uncertainty with a spatially correlated logit distribution. For model uncertainty, we propose the first Laplace approximation of the weight posterior that scales to large neural networks with skip connections that have high-dimensional outputs. Empirically, we demonstrate that modelling spatial pixel correlation allows the Laplacian Segmentation Network to successfully assign high epistemic uncertainty to out-of-distribution objects appearing within images.
The upcoming NASA mission HelioSwarm will use nine spacecraft to make the first simultaneous multi-point measurements of space plasmas spanning multiple scales. Using the wave-telescope technique, HelioSwarm's measurements will allow for both the calculation of the power in wavevector-and-frequency space and the characterization of the associated dispersion relations of waves present in the plasma at MHD and ion-kinetic scales. This technique has been applied to the four-spacecraft missions of CLUSTER and MMS and its effectiveness has previously been characterized in a handful of case studies. We expand this uncertainty quantification analysis to arbitrary configurations of four through nine spacecraft for three-dimensional plane waves. We use Bayesian inference to learn equations that approximate the error in reconstructing the wavevector as a function of relative wavevector magnitude, spacecraft configuration shape, and number of spacecraft. We demonstrate the application of these equations to data drawn from a nine-spacecraft configuration to both improve the accuracy of the technique, as well as expand the magnitudes of wavevectors that can be characterized.
Placing a human in the loop may abate the risks of deploying AI systems in safety-critical settings (e.g., a clinician working with a medical AI system). However, mitigating risks arising from human error and uncertainty within such human-AI interactions is an important and understudied issue. In this work, we study human uncertainty in the context of concept-based models, a family of AI systems that enable human feedback via concept interventions where an expert intervenes on human-interpretable concepts relevant to the task. Prior work in this space often assumes that humans are oracles who are always certain and correct. Yet, real-world decision-making by humans is prone to occasional mistakes and uncertainty. We study how existing concept-based models deal with uncertain interventions from humans using two novel datasets: UMNIST, a visual dataset with controlled simulated uncertainty based on the MNIST dataset, and CUB-S, a relabeling of the popular CUB concept dataset with rich, densely-annotated soft labels from humans. We show that training with uncertain concept labels may help mitigate weaknesses of concept-based systems when handling uncertain interventions. These results allow us to identify several open challenges, which we argue can be tackled through future multidisciplinary research on building interactive uncertainty-aware systems. To facilitate further research, we release a new elicitation platform, UElic, to collect uncertain feedback from humans in collaborative prediction tasks.
Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant correction for all test points, disregarding their individual uncertainties, to ensure coverage properties. To address this issue, we propose using a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) to learn the distribution of nonconformity scores and utilizing the QRF's weights to assign more importance to samples with residuals similar to the test point. This approach results in PI lengths that are more aligned with the model's uncertainty. In addition, the weights learnt by the QRF provide a partition of the features space, allowing for more efficient computations and improved adaptiveness of the PI through groupwise conformalization. Our approach enjoys an assumption-free finite sample marginal and training-conditional coverage, and under suitable assumptions, it also ensures conditional coverage. Our methods work for any nonconformity score and are available as a Python package. We conduct experiments on simulated and real-world data that demonstrate significant improvements compared to existing methods.
The R-package GeoAdjust //github.com/umut-altay/GeoAdjust-package implements fast empirical Bayesian geostatistical inference for household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program (DHS) using Template Model Builder (TMB). DHS household survey data is an important source of data for tracking demographic and health indicators, but positional uncertainty has been intentionally introduced in the GPS coordinates to preserve privacy. GeoAdjust accounts for such positional uncertainty in geostatistical models containing both spatial random effects and raster- and distance-based covariates. The R package supports Gaussian, binomial and Poisson likelihoods with identity link, logit link, and log link functions respectively. The user defines the desired model structure by setting a small number of function arguments, and can easily experiment with different hyperparameters for the priors. GeoAdjust is the first software package that is specifically designed to address positional uncertainty in the GPS coordinates of point referenced household survey data. The package provides inference for model parameters and can predict values at unobserved locations.
Recently, the robustness of deep learning models has received widespread attention, and various methods for improving model robustness have been proposed, including adversarial training, model architecture modification, design of loss functions, certified defenses, and so on. However, the principle of the robustness to attacks is still not fully understood, also the related research is still not sufficient. Here, we have identified a significant factor that affects the robustness of models: the distribution characteristics of softmax values for non-real label samples. We found that the results after an attack are highly correlated with the distribution characteristics, and thus we proposed a loss function to suppress the distribution diversity of softmax. A large number of experiments have shown that our method can improve robustness without significant time consumption.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191