Statistical inference of the high-dimensional regression coefficients is challenging because the uncertainty introduced by the model selection procedure is hard to account for. A critical question remains unsettled; that is, is it possible and how to embed the inference of the model into the simultaneous inference of the coefficients? To this end, we propose a notion of simultaneous confidence intervals called the sparsified simultaneous confidence intervals. Our intervals are sparse in the sense that some of the intervals' upper and lower bounds are shrunken to zero (i.e., $[0,0]$), indicating the unimportance of the corresponding covariates. These covariates should be excluded from the final model. The rest of the intervals, either containing zero (e.g., $[-1,1]$ or $[0,1]$) or not containing zero (e.g., $[2,3]$), indicate the plausible and significant covariates, respectively. The proposed method can be coupled with various selection procedures, making it ideal for comparing their uncertainty. For the proposed method, we establish desirable asymptotic properties, develop intuitive graphical tools for visualization, and justify its superior performance through simulation and real data analysis.
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Answering complex questions over textual resources remains a challenge, particularly when dealing with nuanced relationships between multiple entities expressed within natural-language sentences. To this end, curated knowledge bases (KBs) like YAGO, DBpedia, Freebase, and Wikidata have been widely used and gained great acceptance for question-answering (QA) applications in the past decade. While these KBs offer a structured knowledge representation, they lack the contextual diversity found in natural-language sources. To address this limitation, BigText-QA introduces an integrated QA approach, which is able to answer questions based on a more redundant form of a knowledge graph (KG) that organizes both structured and unstructured (i.e., "hybrid") knowledge in a unified graphical representation. Thereby, BigText-QA is able to combine the best of both worlds$\unicode{x2013}$a canonical set of named entities, mapped to a structured background KB (such as YAGO or Wikidata), as well as an open set of textual clauses providing highly diversified relational paraphrases with rich context information. Our experimental results demonstrate that BigText-QA outperforms DrQA, a neural-network-based QA system, and achieves competitive results to QUEST, a graph-based unsupervised QA system.
Modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies in correlated traffic series is essential for traffic prediction. While recent works have shown improved prediction performance by using neural networks to extract spatiotemporal correlations, their effectiveness depends on the quality of the graph structures used to represent the spatial topology of the traffic network. In this work, we propose a novel approach for traffic prediction that embeds time-varying dynamic Bayesian network to capture the fine spatiotemporal topology of traffic data. We then use graph convolutional networks to generate traffic forecasts. To enable our method to efficiently model nonlinear traffic propagation patterns, we develop a deep learning-based module as a hyper-network to generate stepwise dynamic causal graphs. Our experimental results on a real traffic dataset demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed method. The code is available at //github.com/MonBG/DCGCN.
Positive-Unlabeled (PU) Learning is a challenge presented by binary classification problems where there is an abundance of unlabeled data along with a small number of positive data instances, which can be used to address chronic disease screening problem. State-of-the-art PU learning methods have resulted in the development of various risk estimators, yet they neglect the differences among distinct populations. To address this issue, we present a novel Positive-Unlabeled Learning Tree (PUtree) algorithm. PUtree is designed to take into account communities such as different age or income brackets, in tasks of chronic disease prediction. We propose a novel approach for binary decision-making, which hierarchically builds community-based PU models and then aggregates their deliverables. Our method can explicate each PU model on the tree for the optimized non-leaf PU node splitting. Furthermore, a mask-recovery data augmentation strategy enables sufficient training of the model in individual communities. Additionally, the proposed approach includes an adversarial PU risk estimator to capture hierarchical PU-relationships, and a model fusion network that integrates data from each tree path, resulting in robust binary classification results. We demonstrate the superior performance of PUtree as well as its variants on two benchmarks and a new diabetes-prediction dataset.
Neural based approaches to automatic evaluation of subjective responses have shown superior performance and efficiency compared to traditional rule-based and feature engineering oriented solutions. However, it remains unclear whether the suggested neural solutions are sufficient replacements of human raters as we find recent works do not properly account for rubric items that are essential for automated essay scoring during model training and validation. In this paper, we propose a series of data augmentation operations that train and test an automated scoring model to learn features and functions overlooked by previous works while still achieving state-of-the-art performance in the Automated Student Assessment Prize dataset.
The recent ubiquitous adoption of remote conferencing has been accompanied by omnipresent frustration with distorted or otherwise unclear voice communication. Audio enhancement can compensate for low-quality input signals from, for example, small true wireless earbuds, by applying noise suppression techniques. Such processing relies on voice activity detection (VAD) with low latency and the added capability of discriminating the wearer's voice from others - a task of significant computational complexity. The tight energy budget of devices as small as modern earphones, however, requires any system attempting to tackle this problem to do so with minimal power and processing overhead, while not relying on speaker-specific voice samples and training due to usability concerns. This paper presents the design and implementation of a custom research platform for low-power wireless earbuds based on novel, commercial, MEMS bone-conduction microphones. Such microphones can record the wearer's speech with much greater isolation, enabling personalized voice activity detection and further audio enhancement applications. Furthermore, the paper accurately evaluates a proposed low-power personalized speech detection algorithm based on bone conduction data and a recurrent neural network running on the implemented research platform. This algorithm is compared to an approach based on traditional microphone input. The performance of the bone conduction system, achieving detection of speech within 12.8ms at an accuracy of 95\% is evaluated. Different SoC choices are contrasted, with the final implementation based on the cutting-edge Ambiq Apollo 4 Blue SoC achieving 2.64mW average power consumption at 14uJ per inference, reaching 43h of battery life on a miniature 32mAh li-ion cell and without duty cycling.
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given observed circumstances. This article presents an estimation method for modeling the conditional joint distribution of bivariate outcomes based on the distribution regression and factorization methods. This method is considered semiparametric in that it allows for flexible modeling of both the marginal and joint distributions conditional on covariates without imposing global parametric assumptions across the entire distribution. In contrast to existing parametric approaches, our method can accommodate discrete, continuous, or mixed variables, and provides a simple yet effective way to capture distributional dependence structures between bivariate outcomes and covariates. Various simulation results confirm that our method can perform similarly or better in finite samples compared to the alternative methods. In an application to the study of a motor third-party liability insurance portfolio, the proposed method effectively estimates risk measures such as the conditional Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. This result suggests that this semiparametric approach can serve as an alternative in insurance risk management.
With the rapid progress in Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF), researchers have studied how MAPF algorithms can be deployed to coordinate hundreds of robots in large automated warehouses. While most works try to improve the throughput of such warehouses by developing better MAPF algorithms, we focus on improving the throughput by optimizing the warehouse layout. We show that, even with state-of-the-art MAPF algorithms, commonly used human-designed layouts can lead to congestion for warehouses with large numbers of robots and thus have limited scalability. We extend existing automatic scenario generation methods to optimize warehouse layouts. Results show that our optimized warehouse layouts (1) reduce traffic congestion and thus improve throughput, (2) improve the scalability of the automated warehouses by doubling the number of robots in some cases, and (3) are capable of generating layouts with user-specified diversity measures. We include the source code at: //github.com/lunjohnzhang/warehouse_env_gen_public
Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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