The design and operation of modern energy systems are heavily influenced by time-dependent and uncertain parameters, e.g., renewable electricity generation, load-demand, and electricity prices. These are typically represented by a set of discrete realizations known as scenarios. A popular scenario generation approach uses deep generative models (DGM) that allow scenario generation without prior assumptions about the data distribution. However, the validation of generated scenarios is difficult, and a comprehensive discussion about appropriate validation methods is currently lacking. To start this discussion, we provide a critical assessment of the currently used validation methods in the energy scenario generation literature. In particular, we assess validation methods based on probability density, auto-correlation, and power spectral density. Furthermore, we propose using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) as an additional validation method for non-trivial features like peaks, bursts, and plateaus. As representative examples, we train generative adversarial networks (GANs), Wasserstein GANs (WGANs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs) on two renewable power generation time series (photovoltaic and wind from Germany in 2013 to 2015) and an intra-day electricity price time series form the European Energy Exchange in 2017 to 2019. We apply the four validation methods to both the historical and the generated data and discuss the interpretation of validation results as well as common mistakes, pitfalls, and limitations of the validation methods. Our assessment shows that no single method sufficiently characterizes a scenario but ideally validation should include multiple methods and be interpreted carefully in the context of scenarios over short time periods.
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While Semi-supervised learning has gained much attention in computer vision on image data, yet limited research exists on its applicability in the time series domain. In this work, we investigate the transferability of state-of-the-art deep semi-supervised models from image to time series classification. We discuss the necessary model adaptations, in particular an appropriate model backbone architecture and the use of tailored data augmentation strategies. Based on these adaptations, we explore the potential of deep semi-supervised learning in the context of time series classification by evaluating our methods on large public time series classification problems with varying amounts of labelled samples. We perform extensive comparisons under a decidedly realistic and appropriate evaluation scheme with a unified reimplementation of all algorithms considered, which is yet lacking in the field. We find that these transferred semi-supervised models show significant performance gains over strong supervised, semi-supervised and self-supervised alternatives, especially for scenarios with very few labelled samples.
Mobile Crowdsensing systems are vulnerable to various attacks as they build on non-dedicated and ubiquitous properties. Machine learning (ML)-based approaches are widely investigated to build attack detection systems and ensure MCS systems security. However, adversaries that aim to clog the sensing front-end and MCS back-end leverage intelligent techniques, which are challenging for MCS platform and service providers to develop appropriate detection frameworks against these attacks. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been applied to generate synthetic samples, that are extremely similar to the real ones, deceiving classifiers such that the synthetic samples are indistinguishable from the originals. Previous works suggest that GAN-based attacks exhibit more crucial devastation than empirically designed attack samples, and result in low detection rate at the MCS platform. With this in mind, this paper aims to detect intelligently designed illegitimate sensing service requests by integrating a GAN-based model. To this end, we propose a two-level cascading classifier that combines the GAN discriminator with a binary classifier to prevent adversarial fake tasks. Through simulations, we compare our results to a single-level binary classifier, and the numeric results show that proposed approach raises Adversarial Attack Detection Rate (AADR), from $0\%$ to $97.5\%$ by KNN/NB, from $45.9\%$ to $100\%$ by Decision Tree. Meanwhile, with two-levels classifiers, Original Attack Detection Rate (OADR) improves for the three binary classifiers, with comparison, such as NB from $26.1\%$ to $61.5\%$.
Large-scale pre-training has recently emerged as a technique for creating capable, general purpose, generative models such as GPT-3, Megatron-Turing NLG, Gopher, and many others. In this paper, we highlight a counterintuitive property of such models and discuss the policy implications of this property. Namely, these generative models have an unusual combination of predictable loss on a broad training distribution (as embodied in their "scaling laws"), and unpredictable specific capabilities, inputs, and outputs. We believe that the high-level predictability and appearance of useful capabilities drives rapid development of such models, while the unpredictable qualities make it difficult to anticipate the consequences of model deployment. We go through examples of how this combination can lead to socially harmful behavior with examples from the literature and real world observations, and we also perform two novel experiments to illustrate our point about harms from unpredictability. Furthermore, we analyze how these conflicting properties combine to give model developers various motivations for deploying these models, and challenges that can hinder deployment. We conclude with a list of possible interventions the AI community may take to increase the chance of these models having a beneficial impact. We intend this paper to be useful to policymakers who want to understand and regulate AI systems, technologists who care about the potential policy impact of their work, and academics who want to analyze, critique, and potentially develop large generative models.
Deep generative modelling is a class of techniques that train deep neural networks to model the distribution of training samples. Research has fragmented into various interconnected approaches, each of which making trade-offs including run-time, diversity, and architectural restrictions. In particular, this compendium covers energy-based models, variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, autoregressive models, normalizing flows, in addition to numerous hybrid approaches. These techniques are drawn under a single cohesive framework, comparing and contrasting to explain the premises behind each, while reviewing current state-of-the-art advances and implementations.
Learning to classify unseen class samples at test time is popularly referred to as zero-shot learning (ZSL). If test samples can be from training (seen) as well as unseen classes, it is a more challenging problem due to the existence of strong bias towards seen classes. This problem is generally known as \emph{generalized} zero-shot learning (GZSL). Thanks to the recent advances in generative models such as VAEs and GANs, sample synthesis based approaches have gained considerable attention for solving this problem. These approaches are able to handle the problem of class bias by synthesizing unseen class samples. However, these ZSL/GZSL models suffer due to the following key limitations: $(i)$ Their training stage learns a class-conditioned generator using only \emph{seen} class data and the training stage does not \emph{explicitly} learn to generate the unseen class samples; $(ii)$ They do not learn a generic optimal parameter which can easily generalize for both seen and unseen class generation; and $(iii)$ If we only have access to a very few samples per seen class, these models tend to perform poorly. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning based generative model that naturally handles these limitations. The proposed model is based on integrating model-agnostic meta learning with a Wasserstein GAN (WGAN) to handle $(i)$ and $(iii)$, and uses a novel task distribution to handle $(ii)$. Our proposed model yields significant improvements on standard ZSL as well as more challenging GZSL setting. In ZSL setting, our model yields 4.5\%, 6.0\%, 9.8\%, and 27.9\% relative improvements over the current state-of-the-art on CUB, AWA1, AWA2, and aPY datasets, respectively.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been extensively studied in the past few years. Arguably the revolutionary techniques are in the area of computer vision such as plausible image generation, image to image translation, facial attribute manipulation and similar domains. Despite the significant success achieved in computer vision field, applying GANs over real-world problems still have three main challenges: (1) High quality image generation; (2) Diverse image generation; and (3) Stable training. Considering numerous GAN-related research in the literature, we provide a study on the architecture-variants and loss-variants, which are proposed to handle these three challenges from two perspectives. We propose loss and architecture-variants for classifying most popular GANs, and discuss the potential improvements with focusing on these two aspects. While several reviews for GANs have been presented, there is no work focusing on the review of GAN-variants based on handling challenges mentioned above. In this paper, we review and critically discuss 7 architecture-variant GANs and 9 loss-variant GANs for remedying those three challenges. The objective of this review is to provide an insight on the footprint that current GANs research focuses on the performance improvement. Code related to GAN-variants studied in this work is summarized on //github.com/sheqi/GAN_Review.
Generative Adversarial Networks and Conditional Random Fields for Hyperspectral Image Classification
In this paper, we address the hyperspectral image (HSI) classification task with a generative adversarial network and conditional random field (GAN-CRF) -based framework, which integrates a semi-supervised deep learning and a probabilistic graphical model, and make three contributions. First, we design four types of convolutional and transposed convolutional layers that consider the characteristics of HSIs to help with extracting discriminative features from limited numbers of labeled HSI samples. Second, we construct semi-supervised GANs to alleviate the shortage of training samples by adding labels to them and implicitly reconstructing real HSI data distribution through adversarial training. Third, we build dense conditional random fields (CRFs) on top of the random variables that are initialized to the softmax predictions of the trained GANs and are conditioned on HSIs to refine classification maps. This semi-supervised framework leverages the merits of discriminative and generative models through a game-theoretical approach. Moreover, even though we used very small numbers of labeled training HSI samples from the two most challenging and extensively studied datasets, the experimental results demonstrated that spectral-spatial GAN-CRF (SS-GAN-CRF) models achieved top-ranking accuracy for semi-supervised HSI classification.
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theory (EVT) to capture theses effects and in particular the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep LSTM architectures with ReLU and $\tanh$ activation functions can model trends and temporal dependencies while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a pre-specified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we use hourly price and demand data from 4719 nodes of the PJM interconnection, and we construct a deep predictor. We show that DL-EVT outperforms traditional Fourier time series methods, both in-and out-of-sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
The prevalence of networked sensors and actuators in many real-world systems such as smart buildings, factories, power plants, and data centers generate substantial amounts of multivariate time series data for these systems. The rich sensor data can be continuously monitored for intrusion events through anomaly detection. However, conventional threshold-based anomaly detection methods are inadequate due to the dynamic complexities of these systems, while supervised machine learning methods are unable to exploit the large amounts of data due to the lack of labeled data. On the other hand, current unsupervised machine learning approaches have not fully exploited the spatial-temporal correlation and other dependencies amongst the multiple variables (sensors/actuators) in the system for detecting anomalies. In this work, we propose an unsupervised multivariate anomaly detection method based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Instead of treating each data stream independently, our proposed MAD-GAN framework considers the entire variable set concurrently to capture the latent interactions amongst the variables. We also fully exploit both the generator and discriminator produced by the GAN, using a novel anomaly score called DR-score to detect anomalies by discrimination and reconstruction. We have tested our proposed MAD-GAN using two recent datasets collected from real-world CPS: the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) and the Water Distribution (WADI) datasets. Our experimental results showed that the proposed MAD-GAN is effective in reporting anomalies caused by various cyber-intrusions compared in these complex real-world systems.
Dynamic topic models (DTMs) model the evolution of prevalent themes in literature, online media, and other forms of text over time. DTMs assume that word co-occurrence statistics change continuously and therefore impose continuous stochastic process priors on their model parameters. These dynamical priors make inference much harder than in regular topic models, and also limit scalability. In this paper, we present several new results around DTMs. First, we extend the class of tractable priors from Wiener processes to the generic class of Gaussian processes (GPs). This allows us to explore topics that develop smoothly over time, that have a long-term memory or are temporally concentrated (for event detection). Second, we show how to perform scalable approximate inference in these models based on ideas around stochastic variational inference and sparse Gaussian processes. This way we can train a rich family of DTMs to massive data. Our experiments on several large-scale datasets show that our generalized model allows us to find interesting patterns that were not accessible by previous approaches.
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