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In settings ranging from weather forecasts to political prognostications to financial projections, probability estimates of future binary outcomes often evolve over time. For example, the estimated likelihood of rain on a specific day changes by the hour as new information becomes available. Given a collection of such probability paths, we introduce a Bayesian framework -- which we call the Gaussian latent information martingale, or GLIM -- for modeling the structure of dynamic predictions over time. Suppose, for example, that the likelihood of rain in a week is 50 %, and consider two hypothetical scenarios. In the first, one expects the forecast to be equally likely to become either 25 % or 75 % tomorrow; in the second, one expects the forecast to stay constant for the next several days. A time-sensitive decision-maker might select a course of action immediately in the latter scenario, but may postpone their decision in the former, knowing that new information is imminent. We model these trajectories by assuming predictions update according to a latent process of information flow, which is inferred from historical data. In contrast to general methods for time series analysis, this approach preserves important properties of probability paths such as the martingale structure and appropriate amount of volatility and better quantifies future uncertainties around probability paths. We show that GLIM outperforms three popular baseline methods, producing better estimated posterior probability path distributions measured by three different metrics. By elucidating the dynamic structure of predictions over time, we hope to help individuals make more informed choices.

So far, most research on recommender systems focused on maintaining long-term user engagement and satisfaction, by promoting relevant and personalized content. However, it is still very challenging to evaluate the quality and the reliability of this content. In this paper, we propose FEBR (Expert-Based Recommendation Framework), an apprenticeship learning framework to assess the quality of the recommended content on online platforms. The framework exploits the demonstrated trajectories of an expert (assumed to be reliable) in a recommendation evaluation environment, to recover an unknown utility function. This function is used to learn an optimal policy describing the expert's behavior, which is then used in the framework to provide high-quality and personalized recommendations. We evaluate the performance of our solution through a user interest simulation environment (using RecSim). We simulate interactions under the aforementioned expert policy for videos recommendation, and compare its efficiency with standard recommendation methods. The results show that our approach provides a significant gain in terms of content quality, evaluated by experts and watched by users, while maintaining almost the same watch time as the baseline approaches.

Runtime monitoring plays a key role in the assurance of modern intelligent cyber-physical systems, which are frequently data-intensive and safety-critical. While graph queries can serve as an expressive yet formally precise specification language to capture the safety properties of interest, there are no timeliness guarantees for such auto-generated runtime monitoring programs, which prevents their use in a real-time setting. While worst-case execution time (WCET) bounds derived by existing static WCET estimation techniques are safe, they may not be tight as they are unable to exploit domain-specific (semantic) information about the input models. This paper presents a semantic-aware WCET analysis method for data-driven monitoring programs derived from graph queries. The method incorporates results obtained from low-level timing analysis into the objective function of a modern graph solver. This allows the systematic generation of input graph models up to a specified size (referred to as witness models) for which the monitor is expected to take the most time to complete. Hence the estimated execution time of the monitors on these graphs can be considered as safe and tight WCET. Additionally, we perform a set of experiments with query-based programs running on a real-time platform over a set of generated models to investigate the relationship between execution times and their estimates, and compare WCET estimates produced by our approach with results from two well-known timing analyzers, aiT and OTAWA.

User-generated content from social media is produced in many languages, making it technically challenging to compare the discussed themes from one domain across different cultures and regions. It is relevant for domains in a globalized world, such as market research, where people from two nations and markets might have different requirements for a product. We propose a simple, modern, and effective method for building a single topic model with sentiment analysis capable of covering multiple languages simultanteously, based on a pre-trained state-of-the-art deep neural network for natural language understanding. To demonstrate its feasibility, we apply the model to newspaper articles and user comments of a specific domain, i.e., organic food products and related consumption behavior. The themes match across languages. Additionally, we obtain an high proportion of stable and domain-relevant topics, a meaningful relation between topics and their respective textual contents, and an interpretable representation for social media documents. Marketing can potentially benefit from our method, since it provides an easy-to-use means of addressing specific customer interests from different market regions around the globe. For reproducibility, we provide the code, data, and results of our study.

We consider an input-to-response (ItR) system characterized by (1) parameterized input with a known probability distribution and (2) stochastic ItR function with heteroscedastic randomness. Our purpose is to efficiently quantify the extreme response probability when the ItR function is expensive to evaluate. The problem setup arises often in physics and engineering problems, with randomness in ItR coming from either intrinsic uncertainties (say, as a solution to a stochastic equation) or additional (critical) uncertainties that are not incorporated in a low-dimensional input parameter space (as a result of dimension reduction applied to the original high-dimensional input space). To reduce the required sampling numbers, we develop a sequential Bayesian experimental design method leveraging the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression (VHGPR) to account for the stochastic ItR, along with a new criterion to select the next-best samples sequentially. The validity of our new method is first tested in two synthetic problems with the stochastic ItR functions defined artificially. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method to an engineering problem of estimating the extreme ship motion probability in irregular waves, where the uncertainty in ItR naturally originates from standard wave group parameterization, which reduces the original high-dimensional wave field into a two-dimensional parameter space.

We analyse the recovery of different roles in a network modelled by a directed graph, based on the so-called Neighbourhood Pattern Similarity approach. Our analysis uses results from random matrix theory to show that when assuming the graph is generated as a particular Stochastic Block Model with Bernoulli probability distributions for the different blocks, then the recovery is asymptotically correct when the graph has a sufficiently large dimension. Under these assumptions there is a sufficient gap between the dominant and dominated eigenvalues of the similarity matrix, which guarantees the asymptotic correct identification of the number of different roles. We also comment on the connections with the literature on Stochastic Block Models, including the case of probabilities of order log(n)/n where n is the graph size. We provide numerical experiments to assess the effectiveness of the method when applied to practical networks of finite size.

Time series modeling has attracted extensive research efforts; however, achieving both reliable efficiency and interpretability from a unified model still remains a challenging problem. Among the literature, shapelets offer interpretable and explanatory insights in the classification tasks, while most existing works ignore the differing representative power at different time slices, as well as (more importantly) the evolution pattern of shapelets. In this paper, we propose to extract time-aware shapelets by designing a two-level timing factor. Moreover, we define and construct the shapelet evolution graph, which captures how shapelets evolve over time and can be incorporated into the time series embeddings by graph embedding algorithms. To validate whether the representations obtained in this way can be applied effectively in various scenarios, we conduct experiments based on three public time series datasets, and two real-world datasets from different domains. Experimental results clearly show the improvements achieved by our approach compared with 17 state-of-the-art baselines.

To drive purchase in online advertising, it is of the advertiser's great interest to optimize the sequential advertising strategy whose performance and interpretability are both important. The lack of interpretability in existing deep reinforcement learning methods makes it not easy to understand, diagnose and further optimize the strategy. In this paper, we propose our Deep Intents Sequential Advertising (DISA) method to address these issues. The key part of interpretability is to understand a consumer's purchase intent which is, however, unobservable (called hidden states). In this paper, we model this intention as a latent variable and formulate the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the underlying intents are inferred based on the observable behaviors. Large-scale industrial offline and online experiments demonstrate our method's superior performance over several baselines. The inferred hidden states are analyzed, and the results prove the rationality of our inference.

Sentiment analysis is a widely studied NLP task where the goal is to determine opinions, emotions, and evaluations of users towards a product, an entity or a service that they are reviewing. One of the biggest challenges for sentiment analysis is that it is highly language dependent. Word embeddings, sentiment lexicons, and even annotated data are language specific. Further, optimizing models for each language is very time consuming and labor intensive especially for recurrent neural network models. From a resource perspective, it is very challenging to collect data for different languages. In this paper, we look for an answer to the following research question: can a sentiment analysis model trained on a language be reused for sentiment analysis in other languages, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, and Dutch, where the data is more limited? Our goal is to build a single model in the language with the largest dataset available for the task, and reuse it for languages that have limited resources. For this purpose, we train a sentiment analysis model using recurrent neural networks with reviews in English. We then translate reviews in other languages and reuse this model to evaluate the sentiments. Experimental results show that our robust approach of single model trained on English reviews statistically significantly outperforms the baselines in several different languages.