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This paper focuses on stochastic saddle point problems with decision-dependent distributions. These are problems whose objective is the expected value of a stochastic payoff function, where random variables are drawn from a distribution induced by a distributional map. For general distributional maps, the problem of finding saddle points is in general computationally burdensome, even if the distribution is known. To enable a tractable solution approach, we introduce the notion of equilibrium points -- which are saddle points for the stationary stochastic minimax problem that they induce -- and provide conditions for their existence and uniqueness. We demonstrate that the distance between the two solution types is bounded provided that the objective has a strongly-convex-strongly-concave payoff and a Lipschitz continuous distributional map. We develop deterministic and stochastic primal-dual algorithms and demonstrate their convergence to the equilibrium point. In particular, by modeling errors emerging from a stochastic gradient estimator as sub-Weibull random variables, we provide error bounds in expectation and in high probability that hold for each iteration. Moreover, we show convergence to a neighborhood almost surely. Finally, we investigate a condition on the distributional map -- which we call opposing mixture dominance -- that ensures that the objective is strongly-convex-strongly-concave. We tailor the convergence results for the primal-dual algorithms to this opposing mixture dominance setup.

The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.

We consider M-estimation problems, where the target value is determined using a minimizer of an expected functional of a Levy process. With discrete observations from the Levy process, we can produce a "quasi-path" by shuffling increments of the Levy process, we call it a quasi-process. Under a suitable sampling scheme, a quasi-process can converge weakly to the true process according to the properties of the stationary and independent increments. Using this resampling technique, we can estimate objective functionals similar to those estimated using the Monte Carlo simulations, and it is available as a contrast function. The M-estimator based on these quasi-processes can be consistent and asymptotically normal.

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.

The Koopman operator is beneficial for analyzing nonlinear and stochastic dynamics; it is linear but infinite-dimensional, and it governs the evolution of observables. The extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is one of the famous methods in the Koopman operator approach. The EDMD employs a data set of snapshot pairs and a specific dictionary to evaluate an approximation for the Koopman operator, i.e., the Koopman matrix. In this study, we focus on stochastic differential equations, and a method to obtain the Koopman matrix is proposed. The proposed method does not need any data set, which employs the original system equations to evaluate some of the targeted elements of the Koopman matrix. The proposed method comprises combinatorics, an approximation of the resolvent, and extrapolations. Comparisons with the EDMD are performed for a noisy van der Pol system. The proposed method yields reasonable results even in cases wherein the EDMD exhibits a slow convergence behavior.

In large scale dynamic wireless networks, the amount of overhead caused by channel estimation (CE) is becoming one of the main performance bottlenecks. This is due to the large number users whose channels should be estimated, the user mobility, and the rapid channel change caused by the usage of the high-frequency spectrum (e.g. millimeter wave). In this work, we propose a new hybrid channel estimation/prediction (CEP) scheme to reduce overhead in time-division duplex (TDD) wireless cell-free massive multiple-input-multiple-output (mMIMO) systems. The scheme proposes sending a pilot signal from each user only once in a given number (window) of coherence intervals (CIs). Then minimum mean-square error (MMSE) estimation is used to estimate the channel of this CI, while a deep neural network (DNN) is used to predict the channels of the remaining CIs in the window. The DNN exploits the temporal correlation between the consecutive CIs and the received pilot signals to improve the channel prediction accuracy. By doing so, CE overhead is reduced by at least 50 percent at the expense of negligible CE error for practical user mobility settings. Consequently, the proposed CEP scheme improves the spectral efficiency compared to the conventional MMSE CE approach, especially when the number of users is large, which is demonstrated numerically.

The stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics is one of the most fundamental algorithms to solve sampling problems and non-convex optimization appearing in several machine learning applications. Especially, its variance reduced versions have nowadays gained particular attention. In this paper, we study two variants of this kind, namely, the Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the Stochastic Recursive Gradient Langevin Dynamics. We prove their convergence to the objective distribution in terms of KL-divergence under the sole assumptions of smoothness and Log-Sobolev inequality which are weaker conditions than those used in prior works for these algorithms. With the batch size and the inner loop length set to $\sqrt{n}$, the gradient complexity to achieve an $\epsilon$-precision is $\tilde{O}((n+dn^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})\gamma^2 L^2\alpha^{-2})$, which is an improvement from any previous analyses. We also show some essential applications of our result to non-convex optimization.

The numerical solution of singular eigenvalue problems is complicated by the fact that small perturbations of the coefficients may have an arbitrarily bad effect on eigenvalue accuracy. However, it has been known for a long time that such perturbations are exceptional and standard eigenvalue solvers, such as the QZ algorithm, tend to yield good accuracy despite the inevitable presence of roundoff error. Recently, Lotz and Noferini quantified this phenomenon by introducing the concept of $\delta$-weak eigenvalue condition numbers. In this work, we consider singular quadratic eigenvalue problems and two popular linearizations. Our results show that a correctly chosen linearization increases $\delta$-weak eigenvalue condition numbers only marginally, justifying the use of these linearizations in numerical solvers also in the singular case. We propose a very simple but often effective algorithm for computing well-conditioned eigenvalues of a singular quadratic eigenvalue problems by adding small random perturbations to the coefficients. We prove that the eigenvalue condition number is, with high probability, a reliable criterion for detecting and excluding spurious eigenvalues created from the singular part.

We present a new sublinear time algorithm for approximating the spectral density (eigenvalue distribution) of an $n\times n$ normalized graph adjacency or Laplacian matrix. The algorithm recovers the spectrum up to $\epsilon$ accuracy in the Wasserstein-1 distance in $O(n\cdot \text{poly}(1/\epsilon))$ time given sample access to the graph. This result compliments recent work by David Cohen-Steiner, Weihao Kong, Christian Sohler, and Gregory Valiant (2018), which obtains a solution with runtime independent of $n$, but exponential in $1/\epsilon$. We conjecture that the trade-off between dimension dependence and accuracy is inherent. Our method is simple and works well experimentally. It is based on a Chebyshev polynomial moment matching method that employees randomized estimators for the matrix trace. We prove that, for any Hermitian $A$, this moment matching method returns an $\epsilon$ approximation to the spectral density using just $O({1}/{\epsilon})$ matrix-vector products with $A$. By leveraging stability properties of the Chebyshev polynomial three-term recurrence, we then prove that the method is amenable to the use of coarse approximate matrix-vector products. Our sublinear time algorithm follows from combining this result with a novel sampling algorithm for approximating matrix-vector products with a normalized graph adjacency matrix. Of independent interest, we show a similar result for the widely used \emph{kernel polynomial method} (KPM), proving that this practical algorithm nearly matches the theoretical guarantees of our moment matching method. Our analysis uses tools from Jackson's seminal work on approximation with positive polynomial kernels.

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'