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Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) are psychometric models designed to classify examinees according to their proficiency or non-proficiency of specified latent characteristics. These models are well-suited for providing diagnostic and actionable feedback to support formative assessment efforts. Several DCMs have been developed and applied in different settings. This study proposes a DCM with functional form similar to the 1-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using data from a large-scale mathematics education research study, we demonstrate that the proposed DCM has measurement properties akin to the Rasch and 1-parameter logistic item response theory models, including test score sufficiency, item-free and person-free measurement, and invariant item and person ordering. We discuss the implications and limitations of these developments, as well as directions for future research.

Application for semantic segmentation models in areas such as autonomous vehicles and human computer interaction require real-time predictive capabilities. The challenges of addressing real-time application is amplified by the need to operate on resource constrained hardware. Whilst development of real-time methods for these platforms has increased, these models are unable to sufficiently reason about uncertainty present when applied on embedded real-time systems. This paper addresses this by combining deep feature extraction from pre-trained models with Bayesian regression and moment propagation for uncertainty aware predictions. We demonstrate how the proposed method can yield meaningful epistemic uncertainty on embedded hardware in real-time whilst maintaining predictive performance.

An ultimate objective in continual learning is to preserve knowledge learned in preceding tasks while learning new tasks. To mitigate forgetting prior knowledge, we propose a novel knowledge distillation technique that takes into the account the manifold structure of the latent/output space of a neural network in learning novel tasks. To achieve this, we propose to approximate the data manifold up-to its first order, hence benefiting from linear subspaces to model the structure and maintain the knowledge of a neural network while learning novel concepts. We demonstrate that the modeling with subspaces provides several intriguing properties, including robustness to noise and therefore effective for mitigating Catastrophic Forgetting in continual learning. We also discuss and show how our proposed method can be adopted to address both classification and segmentation problems. Empirically, we observe that our proposed method outperforms various continual learning methods on several challenging datasets including Pascal VOC, and Tiny-Imagenet. Furthermore, we show how the proposed method can be seamlessly combined with existing learning approaches to improve their performances. The codes of this article will be available at //github.com/csiro-robotics/SDCL.

It is widely believed that a joint factor analysis of item responses and response time (RT) may yield more precise ability scores that are conventionally predicted from responses only. For this purpose, a simple-structure factor model is often preferred as it only requires specifying an additional measurement model for item-level RT while leaving the original item response theory (IRT) model for responses intact. The added speed factor indicated by item-level RT correlates with the ability factor in the IRT model, allowing RT data to carry additional information about respondents' ability. However, parametric simple-structure factor models are often restrictive and fit poorly to empirical data, which prompts under-confidence in the suitablity of a simple factor structure. In the present paper, we analyze the 2015 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) mathematics data using a semiparametric simple-structure model. We conclude that a simple factor structure attains a decent fit after further parametric assumptions in the measurement model are sufficiently relaxed. Furthermore, our semiparametric model implies that the association between latent ability and speed/slowness is strong in the population, but the form of association is nonlinear. It follows that scoring based on the fitted model can substantially improve the precision of ability scores.

Integrating multiple observational studies to make unconfounded causal or descriptive comparisons of group potential outcomes in a large natural population is challenging. Moreover, retrospective cohorts, being convenience samples, are usually unrepresentative of the natural population of interest and have groups with unbalanced covariates. We propose a general covariate-balancing framework based on pseudo-populations that extends established weighting methods to the meta-analysis of multiple retrospective cohorts with multiple groups. Additionally, by maximizing the effective sample sizes of the cohorts, we propose a FLEXible, Optimized, and Realistic (FLEXOR) weighting method appropriate for integrative analyses. We develop new weighted estimators for unconfounded inferences on wide-ranging population-level features and estimands relevant to group comparisons of quantitative, categorical, or multivariate outcomes. The asymptotic properties of these estimators are examined, and accurate small-sample procedures are devised for quantifying estimation uncertainty. Through simulation studies and meta-analyses of TCGA datasets, we discover the differential biomarker patterns of the two major breast cancer subtypes in the United States and demonstrate the versatility and reliability of the proposed weighting strategy, especially for the FLEXOR pseudo-population.

In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based model of COVID-19 in Sweden. From national hospital statistics we derive parameter priors, and we develop linear filtering techniques to drive the simulations given data in the form of daily healthcare demands. We additionally propose a posterior marginal estimator which provides for an improved temporal resolution of the reproduction number estimate as well as supports robustness checks via a parametric bootstrap procedure. From our computational approach we obtain a Bayesian model of predictive value which provides important insight into the progression of the disease, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, the infection fatality rate, and the regional-level immunity. We successfully validate our posterior model against several different sources, including outputs from extensive screening programs. Since our required data in comparison is easy and non-sensitive to collect, we argue that our approach is particularly promising as a tool to support monitoring and decisions within public health.

Quantile regression is increasingly encountered in modern big data applications due to its robustness and flexibility. We consider the scenario of learning the conditional quantiles of a specific target population when the available data may go beyond the target and be supplemented from other sources that possibly share similarities with the target. A crucial question is how to properly distinguish and utilize useful information from other sources to improve the quantile estimation and inference at the target. We develop transfer learning methods for high-dimensional quantile regression by detecting informative sources whose models are similar to the target and utilizing them to improve the target model. We show that under reasonable conditions, the detection of the informative sources based on sample splitting is consistent. Compared to the naive estimator with only the target data, the transfer learning estimator achieves a much lower error rate as a function of the sample sizes, the signal-to-noise ratios, and the similarity measures among the target and the source models. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach. We apply our methods to tackle the problem of detecting hard-landing risk for flight safety and show the benefits and insights gained from transfer learning of three different types of airplanes: Boeing 737, Airbus A320, and Airbus A380.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced natural language processing (NLP) with their impressive language understanding and generation capabilities. However, their performance may be suboptimal for long-tail or domain-specific tasks due to limited exposure to domain-specific knowledge and vocabulary. Additionally, the lack of transparency of most state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs, which can only be accessed via APIs, impedes further fine-tuning with custom data. Moreover, data privacy is a significant concern. To address these challenges, we propose the novel Parametric Knowledge Guiding (PKG) framework, which equips LLMs with a knowledge-guiding module to access relevant knowledge at runtime without altering the LLMs' parameters. Our PKG is based on open-source "white-box" small language models, allowing offline storage of any knowledge that LLMs require. We demonstrate that our PKG framework can enhance the performance of "black-box" LLMs on a range of long-tail and domain-specific downstream tasks requiring factual, tabular, medical, and multimodal knowledge.

Recently, contrastive learning (CL) has emerged as a successful method for unsupervised graph representation learning. Most graph CL methods first perform stochastic augmentation on the input graph to obtain two graph views and maximize the agreement of representations in the two views. Despite the prosperous development of graph CL methods, the design of graph augmentation schemes -- a crucial component in CL -- remains rarely explored. We argue that the data augmentation schemes should preserve intrinsic structures and attributes of graphs, which will force the model to learn representations that are insensitive to perturbation on unimportant nodes and edges. However, most existing methods adopt uniform data augmentation schemes, like uniformly dropping edges and uniformly shuffling features, leading to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose a novel graph contrastive representation learning method with adaptive augmentation that incorporates various priors for topological and semantic aspects of the graph. Specifically, on the topology level, we design augmentation schemes based on node centrality measures to highlight important connective structures. On the node attribute level, we corrupt node features by adding more noise to unimportant node features, to enforce the model to recognize underlying semantic information. We perform extensive experiments of node classification on a variety of real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines and even surpasses some supervised counterparts, which validates the effectiveness of the proposed contrastive framework with adaptive augmentation.

A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.