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Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising performance averaged over the predicted window. We observe that this can lead to disparate distributions of errors across forecasting steps, especially for recent transformer architectures trained on popular forecasting benchmarks. That is, optimising performance on average can lead to undesirably large errors at specific time-steps. In this work, we present a Constrained Learning approach for long-term time series forecasting that aims to find the best model in terms of average performance that respects a user-defined upper bound on the loss at each time-step. We call our approach loss shaping constraints because it imposes constraints on the loss at each time step, and leverage recent duality results to show that despite its non-convexity, the resulting problem has a bounded duality gap. We propose a practical Primal-Dual algorithm to tackle it, and demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits competitive average performance in time series forecasting benchmarks, while shaping the distribution of errors across the predicted window.

Facial video inpainting plays a crucial role in a wide range of applications, including but not limited to the removal of obstructions in video conferencing and telemedicine, enhancement of facial expression analysis, privacy protection, integration of graphical overlays, and virtual makeup. This domain presents serious challenges due to the intricate nature of facial features and the inherent human familiarity with faces, heightening the need for accurate and persuasive completions. In addressing challenges specifically related to occlusion removal in this context, our focus is on the progressive task of generating complete images from facial data covered by masks, ensuring both spatial and temporal coherence. Our study introduces a network designed for expression-based video inpainting, employing generative adversarial networks (GANs) to handle static and moving occlusions across all frames. By utilizing facial landmarks and an occlusion-free reference image, our model maintains the user's identity consistently across frames. We further enhance emotional preservation through a customized facial expression recognition (FER) loss function, ensuring detailed inpainted outputs. Our proposed framework exhibits proficiency in eliminating occlusions from facial videos in an adaptive form, whether appearing static or dynamic on the frames, while providing realistic and coherent results.

Humans can quickly learn new behaviors by leveraging background world knowledge. In contrast, agents trained with reinforcement learning (RL) typically learn behaviors from scratch. We thus propose a novel approach that uses the vast amounts of general and indexable world knowledge encoded in vision-language models (VLMs) pre-trained on Internet-scale data for embodied RL. We initialize policies with VLMs by using them as promptable representations: embeddings that are grounded in visual observations and encode semantic features based on the VLM's internal knowledge, as elicited through prompts that provide task context and auxiliary information. We evaluate our approach on visually-complex, long horizon RL tasks in Minecraft and robot navigation in Habitat. We find that our policies trained on embeddings extracted from general-purpose VLMs outperform equivalent policies trained on generic, non-promptable image embeddings. We also find our approach outperforms instruction-following methods and performs comparably to domain-specific embeddings.

Prompt tuning, in which prompts are optimized to adapt large-scale pre-trained language models to downstream tasks instead of fine-tuning the full model parameters, has been shown to be particularly effective when the prompts are trained in a multi-task transfer learning setting. These methods generally involve individually training prompts for each source task and then aggregating them to provide the initialization of the prompt for the target task. However, this approach critically ignores the fact that some of the source tasks could be negatively or positively interfering with each other. We argue that when we extract knowledge from source tasks via training source prompts, we need to consider this correlation among source tasks for better transfer to target tasks. To this end, we propose a Bayesian approach where we work with the posterior distribution of prompts across source tasks. We obtain representative source prompts corresponding to the samples from the posterior utilizing Stein Variational Gradient Descent, which are then aggregated to constitute the initial target prompt. We show extensive experimental results on the standard benchmark NLP tasks, where our Bayesian multi-task transfer learning approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in many settings. Furthermore, our approach requires no auxiliary models other than the prompt itself, achieving a high degree of parameter efficiency.

Digital twin (DT) platforms are increasingly regarded as a promising technology for controlling, optimizing, and monitoring complex engineering systems such as next-generation wireless networks. An important challenge in adopting DT solutions is their reliance on data collected offline, lacking direct access to the physical environment. This limitation is particularly severe in multi-agent systems, for which conventional multi-agent reinforcement (MARL) requires online interactions with the environment. A direct application of online MARL schemes to an offline setting would generally fail due to the epistemic uncertainty entailed by the limited availability of data. In this work, we propose an offline MARL scheme for DT-based wireless networks that integrates distributional RL and conservative Q-learning to address the environment's inherent aleatoric uncertainty and the epistemic uncertainty arising from limited data. To further exploit the offline data, we adapt the proposed scheme to the centralized training decentralized execution framework, allowing joint training of the agents' policies. The proposed MARL scheme, referred to as multi-agent conservative quantile regression (MA-CQR) addresses general risk-sensitive design criteria and is applied to the trajectory planning problem in drone networks, showcasing its advantages.

Recently text-to-image models have gained widespread attention in the community due to their controllable and high-quality generation ability. However, the robustness of such models and their potential ethical issues have not been fully explored. In this paper, we introduce Universal Semantic Trigger, a meaningless token sequence that can be added at any location within the input text yet can induce generated images towards a preset semantic target.To thoroughly investigate it, we propose Semantic Gradient-based Search (SGS) framework. SGS automatically discovers the potential universal semantic triggers based on the given semantic targets. Furthermore, we design evaluation metrics to comprehensively evaluate semantic shift of images caused by these triggers. And our empirical analyses reveal that the mainstream open-source text-to-image models are vulnerable to our triggers, which could pose significant ethical threats. Our work contributes to a further understanding of text-to-image synthesis and helps users to automatically auditing their models before deployment.

We describe a class of tasks called decision-oriented dialogues, in which AI assistants must collaborate with one or more humans via natural language to help them make complex decisions. We formalize three domains in which users face everyday decisions: (1) choosing an assignment of reviewers to conference papers, (2) planning a multi-step itinerary in a city, and (3) negotiating travel plans for a group of friends. In each of these settings, AI assistants and users have disparate abilities that they must combine to arrive at the best decision: assistants can access and process large amounts of information, while users have preferences and constraints external to the system. For each task, we build a dialogue environment where agents receive a reward based on the quality of the final decision they reach. Using these environments, we collect human-human dialogues with humans playing the role of assistant. To compare how current AI assistants communicate in these settings, we present baselines using large language models in self-play. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges models face in decision-oriented dialogues, ranging from efficient communication to reasoning and optimization, and release our environments as a testbed for future modeling work.

The development of autonomous agents which can interact with other agents to accomplish a given task is a core area of research in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Towards this goal, the Autonomous Agents Research Group develops novel machine learning algorithms for autonomous systems control, with a specific focus on deep reinforcement learning and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Research problems include scalable learning of coordinated agent policies and inter-agent communication; reasoning about the behaviours, goals, and composition of other agents from limited observations; and sample-efficient learning based on intrinsic motivation, curriculum learning, causal inference, and representation learning. This article provides a broad overview of the ongoing research portfolio of the group and discusses open problems for future directions.

With the rise of powerful pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP, it becomes essential to investigate ways to adapt these models to downstream datasets. A recently proposed method named Context Optimization (CoOp) introduces the concept of prompt learning -- a recent trend in NLP -- to the vision domain for adapting pre-trained vision-language models. Specifically, CoOp turns context words in a prompt into a set of learnable vectors and, with only a few labeled images for learning, can achieve huge improvements over intensively-tuned manual prompts. In our study we identify a critical problem of CoOp: the learned context is not generalizable to wider unseen classes within the same dataset, suggesting that CoOp overfits base classes observed during training. To address the problem, we propose Conditional Context Optimization (CoCoOp), which extends CoOp by further learning a lightweight neural network to generate for each image an input-conditional token (vector). Compared to CoOp's static prompts, our dynamic prompts adapt to each instance and are thus less sensitive to class shift. Extensive experiments show that CoCoOp generalizes much better than CoOp to unseen classes, even showing promising transferability beyond a single dataset; and yields stronger domain generalization performance as well. Code is available at //github.com/KaiyangZhou/CoOp.

Image-to-image translation aims to learn the mapping between two visual domains. There are two main challenges for many applications: 1) the lack of aligned training pairs and 2) multiple possible outputs from a single input image. In this work, we present an approach based on disentangled representation for producing diverse outputs without paired training images. To achieve diversity, we propose to embed images onto two spaces: a domain-invariant content space capturing shared information across domains and a domain-specific attribute space. Our model takes the encoded content features extracted from a given input and the attribute vectors sampled from the attribute space to produce diverse outputs at test time. To handle unpaired training data, we introduce a novel cross-cycle consistency loss based on disentangled representations. Qualitative results show that our model can generate diverse and realistic images on a wide range of tasks without paired training data. For quantitative comparisons, we measure realism with user study and diversity with a perceptual distance metric. We apply the proposed model to domain adaptation and show competitive performance when compared to the state-of-the-art on the MNIST-M and the LineMod datasets.