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We introduce methods to bound the mean of a discrete distribution (or finite population) based on sample data, for random variables with a known set of possible values. In particular, the methods can be applied to categorical data with known category-based values. For small sample sizes, we show how to leverage the knowledge of the set of possible values to compute bounds that are stronger than for general random variables such as standard concentration inequalities.

Joint species distribution models (JSDM) are among the most important statistical tools in community ecology. However, existing JSDMs cannot model mutual exclusion between species. We tackle this deficiency by developing a novel hierarchical JSDM with Dirichlet-Multinomial observation process for mutually exclusive species groups. We apply non-stationary multivariate Gaussian processes to describe species niche preferences and conduct Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We propose decision theoretic model comparison and validation methods to assess the goodness of the proposed model and its alternatives in a case study on modeling vegetation cover in a boreal peatland in Finland. Our results show that ignoring the interspecific interactions and competition significantly reduces models predictive performance and through that leads to biased estimates for total cover of individual species and over all species combined. Models relative predictive performance also depends on the predictive task highlighting that model comparison and assessment method should resemble the true predictive task. Our results also demonstrate that the proposed joint species distribution model can be used to simultaneously infer interspecific correlations in niche preference as well as mutual competition for space and through that provide novel insight into ecological research.

Cluster analysis requires many decisions: the clustering method and the implied reference model, the number of clusters and, often, several hyper-parameters and algorithms' tunings. In practice, one produces several partitions, and a final one is chosen based on validation or selection criteria. There exist an abundance of validation methods that, implicitly or explicitly, assume a certain clustering notion. Moreover, they are often restricted to operate on partitions obtained from a specific method. In this paper, we focus on groups that can be well separated by quadratic or linear boundaries. The reference cluster concept is defined through the quadratic discriminant score function and parameters describing clusters' size, center and scatter. We develop two cluster-quality criteria called quadratic scores. We show that these criteria are consistent with groups generated from a general class of elliptically-symmetric distributions. The quest for this type of groups is common in applications. The connection with likelihood theory for mixture models and model-based clustering is investigated. Based on bootstrap resampling of the quadratic scores, we propose a selection rule that allows choosing among many clustering solutions. The proposed method has the distinctive advantage that it can compare partitions that cannot be compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Extensive numerical experiments and the analysis of real data show that, even if some competing methods turn out to be superior in some setups, the proposed methodology achieves a better overall performance.

While current research has shown the importance of Multi-parametric MRI (mpMRI) in diagnosing prostate cancer (PCa), further investigation is needed for how to incorporate the specific structures of the mpMRI data, such as the regional heterogeneity and between-voxel correlation within a subject. This paper proposes a machine learning-based method for improved voxel-wise PCa classification by taking into account the unique structures of the data. We propose a multi-resolution modeling approach to account for regional heterogeneity, where base learners trained locally at multiple resolutions are combined using the super learner, and account for between-voxel correlation by efficient spatial Gaussian kernel smoothing. The method is flexible in that the super learner framework allows implementation of any classifier as the base learner, and can be easily extended to classifying cancer into more sub-categories. We describe detailed classification algorithm for the binary PCa status, as well as the ordinal clinical significance of PCa for which a weighted likelihood approach is implemented to enhance the detection of the less prevalent cancer categories. We illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach over conventional modeling and machine learning approaches through simulations and application to in vivo data.

Penalized likelihood models are widely used to simultaneously select variables and estimate model parameters. However, the existence of weak signals can lead to inaccurate variable selection, biased parameter estimation, and invalid inference. Thus, identifying weak signals accurately and making valid inferences are crucial in penalized likelihood models. We develop a unified approach to identify weak signals and make inferences in penalized likelihood models, including the special case when the responses are categorical. To identify weak signals, we use the estimated selection probability of each covariate as a measure of the signal strength and formulate a signal identification criterion. To construct confidence intervals, we propose a two-step inference procedure. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed procedure outperforms several existing methods. We illustrate the proposed method by applying it to the Practice Fusion diabetes data set.

We develop approximation algorithms for set-selection problems with deterministic constraints, but random objective values, i.e., stochastic probing problems. When the goal is to maximize the objective, approximation algorithms for probing problems are well-studied. On the other hand, few techniques are known for minimizing the objective, especially in the adaptive setting, where information about the random objective is revealed during the set-selection process and allowed to influence it. For minimization problems in particular, incorporating adaptivity can have a considerable effect on performance. In this work, we seek approximation algorithms that compare well to the optimal adaptive policy. We develop new techniques for adaptive minimization, applying them to a few problems of interest. The core technique we develop here is an approximate reduction from an adaptive expectation minimization problem to a set of adaptive probability minimization problems which we call threshold problems. By providing near-optimal solutions to these threshold problems, we obtain bicriteria adaptive policies. We apply this method to obtain an adaptive approximation algorithm for the MIN-ELEMENT problem, where the goal is to adaptively pick random variables to minimize the expected minimum value seen among them, subject to a knapsack constraint. This partially resolves an open problem raised in Goel et. al's "How to probe for an extreme value". We further consider three extensions on the MIN-ELEMENT problem, where our objective is the sum of the smallest k element-weights, or the weight of the min-weight basis of a given matroid, or where the constraint is not given by a knapsack but by a matroid constraint. For all three variations we explore, we develop adaptive approximation algorithms for their corresponding threshold problems, and prove their near-optimality via coupling arguments.

We introduce a flexible and scalable class of Bayesian geostatistical models for discrete data, based on the class of nearest neighbor mixture transition distribution processes (NNMP), referred to as discrete NNMP. The proposed class characterizes spatial variability by a weighted combination of first-order conditional probability mass functions (pmfs) for each one of a given number of neighbors. The approach supports flexible modeling for multivariate dependence through specification of general bivariate discrete distributions that define the conditional pmfs. Moreover, the discrete NNMP allows for construction of models given a pre-specified family of marginal distributions that can vary in space, facilitating covariate inclusion. In particular, we develop a modeling and inferential framework for copula-based NNMPs that can attain flexible dependence structures, motivating the use of bivariate copula families for spatial processes. Compared to the traditional class of spatial generalized linear mixed models, where spatial dependence is introduced through a transformation of response means, our process-based modeling approach provides both computational and inferential advantages. We illustrate the benefits with synthetic data examples and an analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey data.

The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.

RNN models have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a wide range of text mining tasks. However, these models are often regarded as black-boxes and are criticized due to the lack of interpretability. In this paper, we enhance the interpretability of RNNs by providing interpretable rationales for RNN predictions. Nevertheless, interpreting RNNs is a challenging problem. Firstly, unlike existing methods that rely on local approximation, we aim to provide rationales that are more faithful to the decision making process of RNN models. Secondly, a flexible interpretation method should be able to assign contribution scores to text segments of varying lengths, instead of only to individual words. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel attribution method, called REAT, to provide interpretations to RNN predictions. REAT decomposes the final prediction of a RNN into additive contribution of each word in the input text. This additive decomposition enables REAT to further obtain phrase-level attribution scores. In addition, REAT is generally applicable to various RNN architectures, including GRU, LSTM and their bidirectional versions. Experimental results demonstrate the faithfulness and interpretability of the proposed attribution method. Comprehensive analysis shows that our attribution method could unveil the useful linguistic knowledge captured by RNNs. Some analysis further demonstrates our method could be utilized as a debugging tool to examine the vulnerability and failure reasons of RNNs, which may lead to several promising future directions to promote generalization ability of RNNs.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.