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An important problem in causal inference is to break down the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into different causal pathways and to quantify the causal effect in each pathway. For instance, in causal fairness, the total effect of being a male employee (i.e., treatment) constitutes its direct effect on annual income (i.e., outcome) and the indirect effect via the employee's occupation (i.e., mediator). Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a formal statistical framework commonly used to reveal such underlying causal mechanisms. One major challenge of CMA in observational studies is handling confounders, variables that cause spurious causal relationships among treatment, mediator, and outcome. Conventional methods assume sequential ignorability that implies all confounders can be measured, which is often unverifiable in practice. This work aims to circumvent the stringent sequential ignorability assumptions and consider hidden confounders. Drawing upon proxy strategies and recent advances in deep learning, we propose to simultaneously uncover the latent variables that characterize hidden confounders and estimate the causal effects. Empirical evaluations using both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We further show the potentials of our approach for causal fairness analysis.

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. We used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models consistently called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

We study the problem of query evaluation on probabilistic graphs, namely, tuple-independent probabilistic databases over signatures of arity two. We focus on the class of queries closed under homomorphisms, or, equivalently, the infinite unions of conjunctive queries. Our main result states that the probabilistic query evaluation problem is #P-hard for all unbounded queries from this class. As bounded queries from this class are equivalent to a union of conjunctive queries, they are already classified by the dichotomy of Dalvi and Suciu (2012). Hence, our result and theirs imply a complete data complexity dichotomy, between polynomial time and #P-hardness, on evaluating homomorphism-closed queries over probabilistic graphs. This dichotomy covers in particular all fragments of infinite unions of conjunctive queries over arity-two signatures, such as negation-free (disjunctive) Datalog, regular path queries, and a large class of ontology-mediated queries. The dichotomy also applies to a restricted case of probabilistic query evaluation called generalized model counting, where fact probabilities must be 0, 0.5, or 1. We show the main result by reducing from the problem of counting the valuations of positive partitioned 2-DNF formulae, or from the source-to-target reliability problem in an undirected graph, depending on properties of minimal models for the query.

Surrogate modeling based on Gaussian processes (GPs) has received increasing attention in the analysis of complex problems in science and engineering. Despite extensive studies on GP modeling, the developments for functional inputs are scarce. Motivated by an inverse scattering problem in which functional inputs representing the support and material properties of the scatterer are involved in the partial differential equations, a new class of kernel functions for functional inputs is introduced for GPs. Based on the proposed GP models, the asymptotic convergence properties of the resulting mean squared prediction errors are derived and the finite sample performance is demonstrated by numerical examples. In the application to inverse scattering, a surrogate model is constructed with functional inputs, which is crucial to recover the reflective index of an inhomogeneous isotropic scattering region of interest for a given far-field pattern.

The covariance structure of multivariate functional data can be highly complex, especially if the multivariate dimension is large, making extensions of statistical methods for standard multivariate data to the functional data setting challenging. For example, Gaussian graphical models have recently been extended to the setting of multivariate functional data by applying multivariate methods to the coefficients of truncated basis expansions. However, a key difficulty compared to multivariate data is that the covariance operator is compact, and thus not invertible. The methodology in this paper addresses the general problem of covariance modeling for multivariate functional data, and functional Gaussian graphical models in particular. As a first step, a new notion of separability for the covariance operator of multivariate functional data is proposed, termed partial separability, leading to a novel Karhunen-Lo\`eve-type expansion for such data. Next, the partial separability structure is shown to be particularly useful in order to provide a well-defined functional Gaussian graphical model that can be identified with a sequence of finite-dimensional graphical models, each of identical fixed dimension. This motivates a simple and efficient estimation procedure through application of the joint graphical lasso. Empirical performance of the method for graphical model estimation is assessed through simulation and analysis of functional brain connectivity during a motor task. %Empirical performance of the method for graphical model estimation is assessed through simulation and analysis of functional brain connectivity during a motor task.

Statistical divergences (SDs), which quantify the dissimilarity between probability distributions, are a basic constituent of statistical inference and machine learning. A modern method for estimating those divergences relies on parametrizing an empirical variational form by a neural network (NN) and optimizing over parameter space. Such neural estimators are abundantly used in practice, but corresponding performance guarantees are partial and call for further exploration. In particular, there is a fundamental tradeoff between the two sources of error involved: approximation and empirical estimation. While the former needs the NN class to be rich and expressive, the latter relies on controlling complexity. We explore this tradeoff for an estimator based on a shallow NN by means of non-asymptotic error bounds, focusing on four popular $\mathsf{f}$-divergences -- Kullback-Leibler, chi-squared, squared Hellinger, and total variation. Our analysis relies on non-asymptotic function approximation theorems and tools from empirical process theory. The bounds reveal the tension between the NN size and the number of samples, and enable to characterize scaling rates thereof that ensure consistency. For compactly supported distributions, we further show that neural estimators of the first three divergences above with appropriate NN growth-rate are near minimax rate-optimal, achieving the parametric rate up to logarithmic factors.

This paper introduces a new approach to inferring the second order properties of a multivariate log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) with a complex intensity function. We assume a semi-parametric model for the multivariate intensity function containing an unspecified complex factor common to all types of points. Given this model we exploit the availability of several types of points to construct a second-order conditional composite likelihood to infer the pair correlation and cross pair correlation functions of the LGCP. Crucially this likelihood does not depend on the unspecified part of the intensity function. We also introduce a cross validation method for model selection and an algorithm for regularized inference that can be used to obtain sparse models for cross pair correlation functions. The methodology is applied to simulated data as well as data examples from microscopy and criminology. This shows how the new approach outperforms existing alternatives where the intensity functions are estimated non-parametrically.

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.

Topic models have been widely explored as probabilistic generative models of documents. Traditional inference methods have sought closed-form derivations for updating the models, however as the expressiveness of these models grows, so does the difficulty of performing fast and accurate inference over their parameters. This paper presents alternative neural approaches to topic modelling by providing parameterisable distributions over topics which permit training by backpropagation in the framework of neural variational inference. In addition, with the help of a stick-breaking construction, we propose a recurrent network that is able to discover a notionally unbounded number of topics, analogous to Bayesian non-parametric topic models. Experimental results on the MXM Song Lyrics, 20NewsGroups and Reuters News datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of these neural topic models.

Recurrent models for sequences have been recently successful at many tasks, especially for language modeling and machine translation. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to extract good representations from these models. For instance, even though language has a clear hierarchical structure going from characters through words to sentences, it is not apparent in current language models. We propose to improve the representation in sequence models by augmenting current approaches with an autoencoder that is forced to compress the sequence through an intermediate discrete latent space. In order to propagate gradients though this discrete representation we introduce an improved semantic hashing technique. We show that this technique performs well on a newly proposed quantitative efficiency measure. We also analyze latent codes produced by the model showing how they correspond to words and phrases. Finally, we present an application of the autoencoder-augmented model to generating diverse translations.