The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric, particle-based DA algorithms have superior accuracy, but their application to high-dimensional models still poses operational challenges. Drawing inspiration from recent advances in the field of generative artificial intelligence (AI), this article introduces a new nonlinear estimation theory which attempts to bridge the existing gap in DA methodology. Specifically, a Conjugate Transform Filter (CTF) is derived and shown to generalize the celebrated Kalman filter to arbitrarily non-Gaussian distributions. The new filter has several desirable properties, such as its ability to preserve statistical relationships in the prior state and convergence to highly accurate observations. An ensemble approximation of the new theory (ECTF) is also presented and validated using idealized statistical experiments that feature bounded quantities with non-Gaussian distributions, a prevalent challenge in Earth system models. Results from these experiments indicate that the greatest benefits from ECTF occur when observation errors are small relative to the forecast uncertainty and when state variables exhibit strong nonlinear dependencies. Ultimately, the new filtering theory offers exciting avenues for improving conventional DA algorithms through their principled integration with AI techniques.
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In this paper, two novel classes of implicit exponential Runge-Kutta (ERK) methods are studied for solving highly oscillatory systems. First of all, we analyze the symplectic conditions of two kinds of exponential integrators, and present a first-order symplectic method. In order to solve highly oscillatory problems, the highly accurate implicit ERK integrators (up to order four) are formulated by comparing the Taylor expansions of numerical and exact solutions, it is shown that the order conditions of two new kinds of exponential methods are identical to the order conditions of classical Runge-Kutta (RK) methods. Moreover, we investigate the linear stability properties of these exponential methods. Finally, numerical results not only present the long time energy preservation of the first-order symplectic method, but also illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of these formulated methods in comparison with standard ERK methods.
We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman Inversion becomes computationally infeasible as the data misfit needs to be evaluated for each particle in each iteration. Here, randomised algorithms like stochastic gradient descent have been demonstrated to successfully overcome this issue by using only a random subset of the data in each iteration, so-called subsampling techniques. Based on a recent analysis of a continuous-time representation of stochastic gradient methods, we propose, analyse, and apply subsampling-techniques within Ensemble Kalman Inversion. Indeed, we propose two different subsampling techniques: either every particle observes the same data subset (single subsampling) or every particle observes a different data subset (batch subsampling).
The Horvitz-Thompson (H-T) estimator is widely used for estimating various types of average treatment effects under network interference. We systematically investigate the optimality properties of H-T estimator under network interference, by embedding it in the class of all linear estimators. In particular, we show that in presence of any kind of network interference, H-T estimator is in-admissible in the class of all linear estimators when using a completely randomized and a Bernoulli design. We also show that the H-T estimator becomes admissible under certain restricted randomization schemes termed as ``fixed exposure designs''. We give examples of such fixed exposure designs. It is well known that the H-T estimator is unbiased when correct weights are specified. Here, we derive the weights for unbiased estimation of various causal effects, and illustrate how they depend not only on the design, but more importantly, on the assumed form of interference (which in many real world situations is unknown at design stage), and the causal effect of interest.
We consider the application of the generalized Convolution Quadrature (gCQ) to approximate the solution of an important class of sectorial problems. The gCQ is a generalization of Lubich's Convolution Quadrature (CQ) that allows for variable steps. The available stability and convergence theory for the gCQ requires non realistic regularity assumptions on the data, which do not hold in many applications of interest, such as the approximation of subdiffusion equations. It is well known that for non smooth enough data the original CQ, with uniform steps, presents an order reduction close to the singularity. We generalize the analysis of the gCQ to data satisfying realistic regularity assumptions and provide sufficient conditions for stability and convergence on arbitrary sequences of time points. We consider the particular case of graded meshes and show how to choose them optimally, according to the behaviour of the data. An important advantage of the gCQ method is that it allows for a fast and memory reduced implementation. We describe how the fast and oblivious gCQ can be implemented and illustrate our theoretical results with several numerical experiments.
Academic challenges comprise effective means for (i) advancing the state of the art, (ii) putting in the spotlight of a scientific community specific topics and problems, as well as (iii) closing the gap for under represented communities in terms of accessing and participating in the shaping of research fields. Competitions can be traced back for centuries and their achievements have had great influence in our modern world. Recently, they (re)gained popularity, with the overwhelming amounts of data that is being generated in different domains, as well as the need of pushing the barriers of existing methods, and available tools to handle such data. This chapter provides a survey of academic challenges in the context of machine learning and related fields. We review the most influential competitions in the last few years and analyze challenges per area of knowledge. The aims of scientific challenges, their goals, major achievements and expectations for the next few years are reviewed.
Experimental and observational studies often lead to spurious association between the outcome and independent variables describing the intervention, because of confounding to third-party factors. Even in randomized clinical trials, confounding might be unavoidable due to small sample sizes. Practically, this poses a problem, because it is either expensive to re-design and conduct a new study or even impossible to alleviate the contribution of some confounders due to e.g. ethical concerns. Here, we propose a method to consistently derive hypothetical studies that retain as many of the dependencies in the original study as mathematically possible, while removing any association of observed confounders to the independent variables. Using historic studies, we illustrate how the confounding-free scenario re-estimates the effect size of the intervention. The new effect size estimate represents a concise prediction in the hypothetical scenario which paves a way from the original data towards the design of future studies.
Agricultural robotics and automation are facing some challenges rooted in the high variability 9 of products, task complexity, crop quality requirement, and dense vegetation. Such a set of 10 challenges demands a more versatile and safe robotic system. Soft robotics is a young yet 11 promising field of research aimed to enhance these aspects of current rigid robots which 12 makes it a good candidate solution for that challenge. In general, it aimed to provide robots 13 and machines with adaptive locomotion (Ansari et al., 2015), safe and adaptive manipulation 14 (Arleo et al., 2020) and versatile grasping (Langowski et al., 2020). But in agriculture, soft 15 robots have been mainly used in harvesting tasks and more specifically in grasping. In this 16 chapter, we review a candidate group of soft grippers that were used for handling and 17 harvesting crops regarding agricultural challenges i.e. safety in handling and adaptability to 18 the high variation of crops. The review is aimed to show why and to what extent soft grippers 19 have been successful in handling agricultural tasks. The analysis carried out on the results 20 provides future directions for the systematic design of soft robots in agricultural tasks.
High-dimensional, higher-order tensor data are gaining prominence in a variety of fields, including but not limited to computer vision and network analysis. Tensor factor models, induced from noisy versions of tensor decomposition or factorization, are natural potent instruments to study a collection of tensor-variate objects that may be dependent or independent. However, it is still in the early stage of developing statistical inferential theories for estimation of various low-rank structures, which are customary to play the role of signals of tensor factor models. In this paper, starting from tensor matricization, we aim to ``decode" estimation of a higher-order tensor factor model in the sense that, we recast it into mode-wise traditional high-dimensional vector/fiber factor models so as to deploy the conventional estimation of principle components analysis (PCA). Demonstrated by the Tucker tensor factor model (TuTFaM), which is induced from most popular Tucker decomposition, we summarize that estimations on signal components are essentially mode-wise PCA techniques, and the involvement of projection and iteration will enhance the signal-to-noise ratio to various extend. We establish the inferential theory of the proposed estimations and conduct rich simulation experiments under TuTFaM, and illustrate how the proposed estimations can work in tensor reconstruction, clustering for video and economic datasets, respectively.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
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