Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.
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Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for prognostics deep learning. This includes the state-of-the-art variational inference algorithms for Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as well as popular alternatives such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), deep ensembles (DE) and heteroscedastic neural networks (HNN). All the inference techniques share the same inception deep learning architecture as a functional model. We performed hyperparameter search to optimize the main variational and learning parameters of the algorithms. The performance of the methods is evaluated on a subset of the large NASA NCMAPSS dataset for aircraft engines. The assessment includes RUL prediction accuracy, the quality of predictive uncertainty, and the possibility to break down the total predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic parts. The results show no method clearly outperforms the others in all the situations. Although all methods are close in terms of accuracy, we find differences in the way they estimate uncertainty. Thus, DE and MCD generally provide more conservative predictive uncertainty than BNN. Surprisingly, HNN can achieve strong results without the added training complexity and extra parameters of the BNN. For tasks like active learning where a separation of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty is required, radial BNN and MCD seem the best options.
We consider the differentially private estimation of multiple quantiles (MQ) of a distribution from a dataset, a key building block in modern data analysis. We apply the recent non-smoothed Inverse Sensitivity (IS) mechanism to this specific problem. We establish that the resulting method is closely related to the recently published ad hoc algorithm JointExp. In particular, they share the same computational complexity and a similar efficiency. We prove the statistical consistency of these two algorithms for continuous distributions. Furthermore, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that this method suffers from an important lack of performance in the case of peaked distributions, which can degrade up to a potentially catastrophic impact in the presence of atoms. Its smoothed version (i.e. by applying a max kernel to its output density) would solve this problem, but remains an open challenge to implement. As a proxy, we propose a simple and numerically efficient method called Heuristically Smoothed JointExp (HSJointExp), which is endowed with performance guarantees for a broad class of distributions and achieves results that are orders of magnitude better on problematic datasets.
Off-policy evaluation is critical in a number of applications where new policies need to be evaluated offline before online deployment. Most existing methods focus on the expected return, define the target parameter through averaging and provide a point estimator only. In this paper, we develop a novel procedure to produce reliable interval estimators for a target policy's return starting from any initial state. Our proposal accounts for the variability of the return around its expectation, focuses on the individual effect and offers valid uncertainty quantification. Our main idea lies in designing a pseudo policy that generates subsamples as if they were sampled from the target policy so that existing conformal prediction algorithms are applicable to prediction interval construction. Our methods are justified by theories, synthetic data and real data from short-video platforms.
Sentiment analysis AKA opinion mining is one of the most widely used NLP applications to identify human intentions from their reviews. In the education sector, opinion mining is used to listen to student opinions and enhance their learning-teaching practices pedagogically. With advancements in sentiment annotation techniques and AI methodologies, student comments can be labelled with their sentiment orientation without much human intervention. In this review article, (1) we consider the role of emotional analysis in education from four levels: document level, sentence level, entity level, and aspect level, (2) sentiment annotation techniques including lexicon-based and corpus-based approaches for unsupervised annotations are explored, (3) the role of AI in sentiment analysis with methodologies like machine learning, deep learning, and transformers are discussed, (4) the impact of sentiment analysis on educational procedures to enhance pedagogy, decision-making, and evaluation are presented. Educational institutions have been widely invested to build sentiment analysis tools and process their student feedback to draw their opinions and insights. Applications built on sentiment analysis of student feedback are reviewed in this study. Challenges in sentiment analysis like multi-polarity, polysemous, negation words, and opinion spam detection are explored and their trends in the research space are discussed. The future directions of sentiment analysis in education are discussed.
We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.
Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient outcomes. Such safety-critical deployment does however require reliable estimation of model uncertainty, also under the wide variety of distribution shifts that might be encountered in practice. Motivated by this, we set out to investigate the reliability of regression uncertainty estimation methods under various real-world distribution shifts. To that end, we propose an extensive benchmark of 8 image-based regression datasets with different types of challenging distribution shifts. We then employ our benchmark to evaluate many of the most common uncertainty estimation methods, as well as two state-of-the-art uncertainty scores from the task of out-of-distribution detection. We find that while methods are well calibrated when there is no distribution shift, they all become highly overconfident on many of the benchmark datasets. This uncovers important limitations of current uncertainty estimation methods, and the proposed benchmark therefore serves as a challenge to the research community. We hope that our benchmark will spur more work on how to develop truly reliable regression uncertainty estimation methods. Code is available at //github.com/fregu856/regression_uncertainty.
In this paper, a novel framework is established for uncertainty quantification via information bottleneck (IB-UQ) for scientific machine learning tasks, including deep neural network (DNN) regression and neural operator learning (DeepONet). Specifically, we first employ the General Incompressible-Flow Networks (GIN) model to learn a "wide" distribution fromnoisy observation data. Then, following the information bottleneck objective, we learn a stochastic map from input to some latent representation that can be used to predict the output. A tractable variational bound on the IB objective is constructed with a normalizing flow reparameterization. Hence, we can optimize the objective using the stochastic gradient descent method. IB-UQ can provide both mean and variance in the label prediction by explicitly modeling the representation variables. Compared to most DNN regression methods and the deterministic DeepONet, the proposed model can be trained on noisy data and provide accurate predictions with reliable uncertainty estimates on unseen noisy data. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed IB-UQ framework via several representative examples, including discontinuous function regression, real-world dataset regression and learning nonlinear operators for diffusion-reaction partial differential equation.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
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