Continuously-observed event occurrences, often exhibit self- and mutually-exciting effects, which can be well modeled using temporal point processes. Beyond that, these event dynamics may also change over time, with certain periodic trends. We propose a novel variational auto-encoder to capture such a mixture of temporal dynamics. More specifically, the whole time interval of the input sequence is partitioned into a set of sub-intervals. The event dynamics are assumed to be stationary within each sub-interval, but could be changing across those sub-intervals. In particular, we use a sequential latent variable model to learn a dependency graph between the observed dimensions, for each sub-interval. The model predicts the future event times, by using the learned dependency graph to remove the noncontributing influences of past events. By doing so, the proposed model demonstrates its higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types for several real-world event sequences, compared with existing state of the art neural point processes.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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In autonomous driving, predicting the behavior (turning left, stopping, etc.) of target vehicles is crucial for the self-driving vehicle to make safe decisions and avoid accidents. Existing deep learning-based methods have shown excellent and accurate performance, but the black-box nature makes it untrustworthy to apply them in practical use. In this work, we explore the interpretability of behavior prediction of target vehicles by an Episodic Memory implanted Neural Decision Tree (abbrev. eMem-NDT). The structure of eMem-NDT is constructed by hierarchically clustering the text embedding of vehicle behavior descriptions. eMem-NDT is a neural-backed part of a pre-trained deep learning model by changing the soft-max layer of the deep model to eMem-NDT, for grouping and aligning the memory prototypes of the historical vehicle behavior features in training data on a neural decision tree. Each leaf node of eMem-NDT is modeled by a neural network for aligning the behavior memory prototypes. By eMem-NDT, we infer each instance in behavior prediction of vehicles by bottom-up Memory Prototype Matching (MPM) (searching the appropriate leaf node and the links to the root node) and top-down Leaf Link Aggregation (LLA) (obtaining the probability of future behaviors of vehicles for certain instances). We validate eMem-NDT on BLVD and LOKI datasets, and the results show that our model can obtain a superior performance to other methods with clear explainability. The code is available at //github.com/JWFangit/eMem-NDT.
We explore how much knowing a parametric restriction on propensity scores improves semiparametric efficiency bounds in the potential outcome framework. For stratified propensity scores, considered as a parametric model, we derive explicit formulas for the efficiency gain from knowing how the covariate space is split. Based on these, we find that the efficiency gain decreases as the partition of the stratification becomes finer. For general parametric models, where it is hard to obtain explicit representations of efficiency bounds, we propose a novel framework that enables us to see whether knowing a parametric model is valuable in terms of efficiency even when it is very high-dimensional. In addition to the intuitive fact that knowing the parametric model does not help much if it is sufficiently flexible, we reveal that the efficiency gain can be nearly zero even though the parametric assumption significantly restricts the space of possible propensity scores.
We design a Quasi-Polynomial time deterministic approximation algorithm for computing the integral of a multi-dimensional separable function, supported by some underlying hyper-graph structure, appropriately defined. Equivalently, our integral is the partition function of a graphical model with continuous potentials. While randomized algorithms for high-dimensional integration are widely known, deterministic counterparts generally do not exist. We use the correlation decay method applied to the Riemann sum of the function to produce our algorithm. For our method to work, we require that the domain is bounded and the hyper-edge potentials are positive and bounded on the domain. We further assume that upper and lower bounds on the potentials separated by a multiplicative factor of $1 + O(1/\Delta^2)$, where $\Delta$ is the maximum degree of the graph. When $\Delta = 3$, our method works provided the upper and lower bounds are separated by a factor of at most $1.0479$. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first deterministic algorithm for high-dimensional integration of a continuous function, apart from the case of trivial product form distributions.
We consider the time and space required for quantum computers to solve a wide variety of problems involving matrices, many of which have only been analyzed classically in prior work. Our main results show that for a range of linear algebra problems -- including matrix-vector product, matrix inversion, matrix multiplication and powering -- existing classical time-space tradeoffs, several of which are tight for every space bound, also apply to quantum algorithms. For example, for almost all matrices $A$, including the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) matrix, we prove that quantum circuits with at most $T$ input queries and $S$ qubits of memory require $T=\Omega(n^2/S)$ to compute matrix-vector product $Ax$ for $x \in \{0,1\}^n$. We similarly prove that matrix multiplication for $n\times n$ binary matrices requires $T=\Omega(n^3 / \sqrt{S})$. Because many of our lower bounds match deterministic algorithms with the same time and space complexity, we show that quantum computers cannot provide any asymptotic advantage for these problems with any space bound. We obtain matching lower bounds for the stronger notion of quantum cumulative memory complexity -- the sum of the space per layer of a circuit. We also consider Boolean (i.e. AND-OR) matrix multiplication and matrix-vector products, improving the previous quantum time-space tradeoff lower bounds for $n\times n$ Boolean matrix multiplication to $T=\Omega(n^{2.5}/S^{1/4})$ from $T=\Omega(n^{2.5}/S^{1/2})$. Our improved lower bound for Boolean matrix multiplication is based on a new coloring argument that extracts more from the strong direct product theorem used in prior work. Our tight lower bounds for linear algebra problems require adding a new bucketing method to the recording-query technique of Zhandry that lets us apply classical arguments to upper bound the success probability of quantum circuits.
Robust fine-tuning aims to ensure performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, which is sometimes compromised by pursuing adaptation on in-distribution (ID) samples. However, another criterion for reliable machine learning -- confidence calibration has been overlooked despite its increasing demand for real-world high-stakes applications, e.g., autonomous driving. We raise concerns about the calibration of fine-tuned vision-language models (VLMs) under distribution shift by showing that naive fine-tuning and even state-of-the-art robust fine-tuning hurt the calibration of pre-trained VLMs, especially on OOD datasets. We first show the OOD calibration error is bounded from above with ID calibration errors and domain discrepancy between ID and OOD. From this analysis, we propose CaRot, a calibrated robust fine-tuning method that incentivizes ID calibration and robust prediction across domains to reduce the upper bound of OOD calibration error. Extensive experiments on three types of distribution shifts (natural, synthetic, and adversarial) on ImageNet-1K classification demonstrate the effectiveness of CaRot across diverse environments. We justify the empirical success of CaRot through our theoretical analysis.
We present a distributed quasi-Newton (DQN) method, which enables a group of agents to compute an optimal solution of a separable multi-agent optimization problem locally using an approximation of the curvature of the aggregate objective function. Each agent computes a descent direction from its local estimate of the aggregate Hessian, obtained from quasi-Newton approximation schemes using the gradient of its local objective function. Moreover, we introduce a distributed quasi-Newton method for equality-constrained optimization (EC-DQN), where each agent takes Karush-Kuhn-Tucker-like update steps to compute an optimal solution. In our algorithms, each agent communicates with its one-hop neighbors over a peer-to-peer communication network to compute a common solution. We prove convergence of our algorithms to a stationary point of the optimization problem. In addition, we demonstrate the competitive empirical convergence of our algorithm in both well-conditioned and ill-conditioned optimization problems, in terms of the computation time and communication cost incurred by each agent for convergence, compared to existing distributed first-order and second-order methods. Particularly, in ill-conditioned problems, our algorithms achieve a faster computation time for convergence, while requiring a lower communication cost, across a range of communication networks with different degrees of connectedness, by leveraging information on the curvature of the problem.
Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have been widely and successfully applied to solve multi-objective optimization problems, due to their nature of population-based search. Population update, a key component in multi-objective EAs (MOEAs), is usually performed in a greedy, deterministic manner. That is, the next-generation population is formed by selecting the best solutions from the current population and newly-generated solutions (irrespective of the selection criteria used such as Pareto dominance, crowdedness and indicators). In this paper, we question this practice. We analytically present that stochastic population update can be beneficial for the search of MOEAs. Specifically, we prove that the expected running time of two well-established MOEAs, SMS-EMOA and NSGA-II, for solving two bi-objective problems, OneJumpZeroJump and bi-objective RealRoyalRoad, can be exponentially decreased if replacing its deterministic population update mechanism by a stochastic one. Empirical studies also verify the effectiveness of the proposed population update method. This work is an attempt to challenge a common practice in the design of existing MOEAs. Its positive results, which might hold more generally, should encourage the exploration of developing new MOEAs in the area.
Knowledge graph embedding, which aims to represent entities and relations as low dimensional vectors (or matrices, tensors, etc.), has been shown to be a powerful technique for predicting missing links in knowledge graphs. Existing knowledge graph embedding models mainly focus on modeling relation patterns such as symmetry/antisymmetry, inversion, and composition. However, many existing approaches fail to model semantic hierarchies, which are common in real-world applications. To address this challenge, we propose a novel knowledge graph embedding model---namely, Hierarchy-Aware Knowledge Graph Embedding (HAKE)---which maps entities into the polar coordinate system. HAKE is inspired by the fact that concentric circles in the polar coordinate system can naturally reflect the hierarchy. Specifically, the radial coordinate aims to model entities at different levels of the hierarchy, and entities with smaller radii are expected to be at higher levels; the angular coordinate aims to distinguish entities at the same level of the hierarchy, and these entities are expected to have roughly the same radii but different angles. Experiments demonstrate that HAKE can effectively model the semantic hierarchies in knowledge graphs, and significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets for the link prediction task.
Collaborative filtering often suffers from sparsity and cold start problems in real recommendation scenarios, therefore, researchers and engineers usually use side information to address the issues and improve the performance of recommender systems. In this paper, we consider knowledge graphs as the source of side information. We propose MKR, a Multi-task feature learning approach for Knowledge graph enhanced Recommendation. MKR is a deep end-to-end framework that utilizes knowledge graph embedding task to assist recommendation task. The two tasks are associated by cross&compress units, which automatically share latent features and learn high-order interactions between items in recommender systems and entities in the knowledge graph. We prove that cross&compress units have sufficient capability of polynomial approximation, and show that MKR is a generalized framework over several representative methods of recommender systems and multi-task learning. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that MKR achieves substantial gains in movie, book, music, and news recommendation, over state-of-the-art baselines. MKR is also shown to be able to maintain a decent performance even if user-item interactions are sparse.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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