The identification of the dependent components in multiple data sets is a fundamental problem in many practical applications. The challenge in these applications is that often the data sets are high-dimensional with few observations or available samples and contain latent components with unknown probability distributions. A novel mathematical formulation of this problem is proposed, which enables the inference of the underlying correlation structure with strict false positive control. In particular, the false discovery rate is controlled at a pre-defined threshold on two levels simultaneously. The deployed test statistics originate in the sample coherence matrix. The required probability models are learned from the data using the bootstrap. Local false discovery rates are used to solve the multiple hypothesis testing problem. Compared to the existing techniques in the literature, the developed technique does not assume an a priori correlation structure and work well when the number of data sets is large while the number of observations is small. In addition, it can handle the presence of distributional uncertainties, heavy-tailed noise, and outliers.
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Since their introduction in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Synthetic Control (SC) methods have quickly become one of the leading methods for estimating causal effects in observational studies in settings with panel data. Formal discussions often motivate SC methods by the assumption that the potential outcomes were generated by a factor model. Here we study SC methods from a design-based perspective, assuming a model for the selection of the treated unit(s) and period(s). We show that the standard SC estimator is generally biased under random assignment. We propose a Modified Unbiased Synthetic Control (MUSC) estimator that guarantees unbiasedness under random assignment and derive its exact, randomization-based, finite-sample variance. We also propose an unbiased estimator for this variance. We document in settings with real data that under random assignment, SC-type estimators can have root mean-squared errors that are substantially lower than that of other common estimators. We show that such an improvement is weakly guaranteed if the treated period is similar to the other periods, for example, if the treated period was randomly selected. While our results only directly apply in settings where treatment is assigned randomly, we believe that they can complement model-based approaches even for observational studies.
The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inference. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where insufficient emphasis is placed on downstream inference. To address this gap, we evaluate seven established baseline causal discovery methods including a newly proposed method based on GFlowNets, on the downstream task of treatment effect estimation. Through the implementation of a distribution-level evaluation, we offer valuable and unique insights into the efficacy of these causal discovery methods for treatment effect estimation, considering both synthetic and real-world scenarios, as well as low-data scenarios. The results of our study demonstrate that some of the algorithms studied are able to effectively capture a wide range of useful and diverse ATE modes, while some tend to learn many low-probability modes which impacts the (unrelaxed) recall and precision.
The Number needed to treat (NNT) is an efficacy index defined as the average number of patients needed to treat to attain one additional treatment benefit. In observational studies, specifically in epidemiology, the adequacy of the populationwise NNT is questionable since the exposed group characteristics may substantially differ from the unexposed. To address this issue, groupwise efficacy indices were defined: the Exposure Impact Number (EIN) for the exposed group and the Number Needed to Expose (NNE) for the unexposed. Each defined index answers a unique research question since it targets a unique sub-population. In observational studies, the group allocation is typically affected by confounders that might be unmeasured. The available estimation methods that rely either on randomization or the sufficiency of the measured covariates for confounding control will result in inconsistent estimators of the true NNT (EIN, NNE) in such settings. Using Rubin's potential outcomes framework, we explicitly define the NNT and its derived indices as causal contrasts. Next, we introduce a novel method that uses instrumental variables to estimate the three aforementioned indices in observational studies. We present two analytical examples and a corresponding simulation study. The simulation study illustrates that the novel estimators are consistent, unlike the previously available methods, and their confidence intervals meet the nominal coverage rates. Finally, a real-world data example of the effect of vitamin D deficiency on the mortality rate is presented.
Time evolving surfaces can be modeled as two-dimensional Functional time series, exploiting the tools of Functional data analysis. Leveraging this approach, a forecasting framework for such complex data is developed. The main focus revolves around Conformal Prediction, a versatile nonparametric paradigm used to quantify uncertainty in prediction problems. Building upon recent variations of Conformal Prediction for Functional time series, a probabilistic forecasting scheme for two-dimensional functional time series is presented, while providing an extension of Functional Autoregressive Processes of order one to this setting. Estimation techniques for the latter process are introduced and their performance are compared in terms of the resulting prediction regions. Finally, the proposed forecasting procedure and the uncertainty quantification technique are applied to a real dataset, collecting daily observations of Sea Level Anomalies of the Black Sea
In this paper, we focus on the high-dimensional double sparse structure, where the parameter of interest simultaneously encourages group-wise sparsity and element-wise sparsity in each group. By combining the Gilbert-Varshamov bound and its variants, we develop a novel lower bound technique for the metric entropy of the parameter space, specifically tailored for the double sparse structure over $\ell_u(\ell_q)$-balls with $u,q \in [0,1]$. We prove lower bounds on the estimation error using an information-theoretic approach, leveraging our proposed lower bound technique and Fano's inequality. To complement the lower bounds, we establish matching upper bounds through a direct analysis of constrained least-squares estimators and utilize results from empirical processes. A significant finding of our study is the discovery of a phase transition phenomenon in the minimax rates for $u,q \in (0, 1]$. Furthermore, we extend the theoretical results to the double sparse regression model and determine its minimax rate for estimation error. To tackle double sparse linear regression, we develop the DSIHT (Double Sparse Iterative Hard Thresholding) algorithm, demonstrating its optimality in the minimax sense. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of our method through numerical experiments.
We propose a general purpose confidence interval procedure (CIP) for statistical functionals constructed using data from a stationary time series. The procedures we propose are based on derived distribution-free analogues of the $\chi^2$ and Student's $t$ random variables for the statistical functional context, and hence apply in a wide variety of settings including quantile estimation, gradient estimation, M-estimation, CVAR-estimation, and arrival process rate estimation, apart from more traditional statistical settings. Like the method of subsampling, we use overlapping batches of time series data to estimate the underlying variance parameter; unlike subsampling and the bootstrap, however, we assume that the implied point estimator of the statistical functional obeys a central limit theorem (CLT) to help identify the weak asymptotics (called OB-x limits, x=I,II,III) of batched Studentized statistics. The OB-x limits, certain functionals of the Wiener process parameterized by the size of the batches and the extent of their overlap, form the essential machinery for characterizing dependence, and consequently the correctness of the proposed CIPs. The message from extensive numerical experimentation is that in settings where a functional CLT on the point estimator is in effect, using \emph{large overlapping batches} alongside OB-x critical values yields confidence intervals that are often of significantly higher quality than those obtained from more generic methods like subsampling or the bootstrap. We illustrate using examples from CVaR estimation, ARMA parameter estimation, and NHPP rate estimation; R and MATLAB code for OB-x critical values is available at~\texttt{web.ics.purdue.edu/~pasupath/}.
We study the validity of the Neumann or Born series approach in solving the Helmholtz equation and coefficient identification in related inverse scattering problems. Precisely, we derive a sufficient and necessary condition under which the series is strongly convergent. We also investigate the rate of convergence of the series. The obtained condition is optimal and it can be much weaker than the traditional requirement for the convergence of the series. Our approach makes use of reduction space techniques proposed by Suzuki \cite{Suzuki-1976}. Furthermore we propose an interpolation method that allows the use of the Neumann series in all cases. Finally, we provide several numerical tests with different medium functions and frequency values to validate our theoretical results.
Deep learning has grown tremendously over recent years, yielding state-of-the-art results in various fields. However, training such models requires huge amounts of data, increasing the computational time and cost. To address this, dataset distillation was proposed to compress a large training dataset into a smaller synthetic one that retains its performance -- this is usually done by (1) uniformly initializing a synthetic set and (2) iteratively updating/learning this set according to a predefined loss by uniformly sampling instances from the full data. In this paper, we improve both phases of dataset distillation: (1) we present a provable, sampling-based approach for initializing the distilled set by identifying important and removing redundant points in the data, and (2) we further merge the idea of data subset selection with dataset distillation, by training the distilled set on ``important'' sampled points during the training procedure instead of randomly sampling the next batch. To do so, we define the notion of importance based on the relative contribution of instances with respect to two different loss functions, i.e., one for the initialization phase (a kernel fitting function for kernel ridge regression and $K$-means based loss function for any other distillation method), and the relative cross-entropy loss (or any other predefined loss) function for the training phase. Finally, we provide experimental results showing how our method can latch on to existing dataset distillation techniques and improve their performance.
This paper discusses and evaluates ideas of data balancing and data augmentation in the context of mathematical objects: an important topic for both the symbolic computation and satisfiability checking communities, when they are making use of machine learning techniques to optimise their tools. We consider a dataset of non-linear polynomial problems and the problem of selecting a variable ordering for cylindrical algebraic decomposition to tackle these with. By swapping the variable names in already labelled problems, we generate new problem instances that do not require any further labelling when viewing the selection as a classification problem. We find this augmentation increases the accuracy of ML models by 63% on average. We study what part of this improvement is due to the balancing of the dataset and what is achieved thanks to further increasing the size of the dataset, concluding that both have a very significant effect. We finish the paper by reflecting on how this idea could be applied in other uses of machine learning in mathematics.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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