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Goal-oriented error estimation provides the ability to approximate the discretization error in a chosen functional quantity of interest. Adaptive mesh methods provide the ability to control this discretization error to obtain accurate quantity of interest approximations while still remaining computationally feasible. Traditional discrete goal-oriented error estimates incur linearization errors in their derivation. In this paper, we investigate the role of linearization errors in adaptive goal-oriented error simulations. In particular, we develop a novel two-level goal-oriented error estimate that is free of linearization errors. Additionally, we highlight how linearization errors can facilitate the verification of the adjoint solution used in goal-oriented error estimation. We then verify the newly proposed error estimate by applying it to a model nonlinear problem for several quantities of interest and further highlight its asymptotic effectiveness as mesh sizes are reduced. In an adaptive mesh context, we then compare the newly proposed estimate to a more traditional two-level goal-oriented error estimate. We highlight that accounting for linearization errors in the error estimate can improve its effectiveness in certain situations and demonstrate that localizing linearization errors can lead to more optimal adapted meshes.

Recent works show that the data distribution in a network's latent space is useful for estimating classification uncertainty and detecting Out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. To obtain a well-regularized latent space that is conducive for uncertainty estimation, existing methods bring in significant changes to model architectures and training procedures. In this paper, we present a lightweight, fast, and high-performance regularization method for Mahalanobis distance-based uncertainty prediction, and that requires minimal changes to the network's architecture. To derive Gaussian latent representation favourable for Mahalanobis Distance calculation, we introduce a self-supervised representation learning method that separates in-class representations into multiple Gaussians. Classes with non-Gaussian representations are automatically identified and dynamically clustered into multiple new classes that are approximately Gaussian. Evaluation on standard OOD benchmarks shows that our method achieves state-of-the-art results on OOD detection with minimal inference time, and is very competitive on predictive probability calibration. Finally, we show the applicability of our method to a real-life computer vision use case on microorganism classification.

This work studies the estimation of many statistical quantiles under differential privacy. More precisely, given a distribution and access to i.i.d. samples from it, we study the estimation of the inverse of its cumulative distribution function (the quantile function) at specific points. For instance, this task is of key importance in private data generation. We present two different approaches. The first one consists in privately estimating the empirical quantiles of the samples and using this result as an estimator of the quantiles of the distribution. In particular, we study the statistical properties of the recently published algorithm introduced by Kaplan et al. 2022 that privately estimates the quantiles recursively. The second approach is to use techniques of density estimation in order to uniformly estimate the quantile function on an interval. In particular, we show that there is a tradeoff between the two methods. When we want to estimate many quantiles, it is better to estimate the density rather than estimating the quantile function at specific points.

This paper tackles the problem of missing data imputation for noisy and non-Gaussian data. A classical imputation method, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian mixture models, has shown interesting properties when compared to other popular approaches such as those based on k-nearest neighbors or on multiple imputations by chained equations. However, Gaussian mixture models are known to be non-robust to heterogeneous data, which can lead to poor estimation performance when the data is contaminated by outliers or follows non-Gaussian distributions. To overcome this issue, a new EM algorithm is investigated for mixtures of elliptical distributions with the property of handling potential missing data. This paper shows that this problem reduces to the estimation of a mixture of Angular Gaussian distributions under generic assumptions (i.e., each sample is drawn from a mixture of elliptical distributions, which is possibly different for one sample to another). In that case, the complete-data likelihood associated with mixtures of elliptical distributions is well adapted to the EM framework with missing data thanks to its conditional distribution, which is shown to be a multivariate $t$-distribution. Experimental results on synthetic data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is robust to outliers and can be used with non-Gaussian data. Furthermore, experiments conducted on real-world datasets show that this algorithm is very competitive when compared to other classical imputation methods.

The application of machine learning models can be significantly impeded by the occurrence of distributional shifts, as the assumption of homogeneity between the population of training and testing samples in machine learning and statistics may not be feasible in practical situations. One way to tackle this problem is to use invariant learning, such as invariant risk minimization (IRM), to acquire an invariant representation that aids in generalization with distributional shifts. This paper develops methods for obtaining distribution-free prediction regions to describe uncertainty estimates for invariant representations, accounting for the distribution shifts of data from different environments. Our approach involves a weighted conformity score that adapts to the specific environment in which the test sample is situated. We construct an adaptive conformal interval using the weighted conformity score and prove its conditional average under certain conditions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct several numerical experiments, including simulation studies and a practical example using real-world data.

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular modeling paradigms for multivariate heavy-tail analysis. Despite being a practical choice, results on parameter estimation and inference under such models remain limited. In this article, consistent estimates for both marginal tail indices and the Gaussian correlation parameters for such models are provided and asymptotic normality of these estimators are established. The efficacy of the estimation methods are exhibited using extensive simulations and then they are applied to real data sets from insurance claims, internet traffic, and, online networks.

This study examines the identifiability of interaction kernels in mean-field equations of interacting particles or agents, an area of growing interest across various scientific and engineering fields. The main focus is identifying data-dependent function spaces where a quadratic loss functional possesses a unique minimizer. We consider two data-adaptive $L^2$ spaces: one weighted by a data-adaptive measure and the other using the Lebesgue measure. In each $L^2$ space, we show that the function space of identifiability is the closure of the RKHS associated with the integral operator of inversion. Alongside prior research, our study completes a full characterization of identifiability in interacting particle systems with either finite or infinite particles, highlighting critical differences between these two settings. Moreover, the identifiability analysis has important implications for computational practice. It shows that the inverse problem is ill-posed, necessitating regularization. Our numerical demonstrations show that the weighted $L^2$ space is preferable over the unweighted $L^2$ space, as it yields more accurate regularized estimators.

Model substructure learning aims to find an invariant network substructure that can have better out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization than the original full structure. Existing works usually search the invariant substructure using modular risk minimization (MRM) with fully exposed out-domain data, which may bring about two drawbacks: 1) Unfairness, due to the dependence of the full exposure of out-domain data; and 2) Sub-optimal OOD generalization, due to the equally feature-untargeted pruning on the whole data distribution. Based on the idea that in-distribution (ID) data with spurious features may have a lower experience risk, in this paper, we propose a novel Spurious Feature-targeted model Pruning framework, dubbed SFP, to automatically explore invariant substructures without referring to the above drawbacks. Specifically, SFP identifies spurious features within ID instances during training using our theoretically verified task loss, upon which, SFP attenuates the corresponding feature projections in model space to achieve the so-called spurious feature-targeted pruning. This is typically done by removing network branches with strong dependencies on identified spurious features, thus SFP can push the model learning toward invariant features and pull that out of spurious features and devise optimal OOD generalization. Moreover, we also conduct detailed theoretical analysis to provide the rationality guarantee and a proof framework for OOD structures via model sparsity, and for the first time, reveal how a highly biased data distribution affects the model's OOD generalization. Experiments on various OOD datasets show that SFP can significantly outperform both structure-based and non-structure-based OOD generalization SOTAs, with accuracy improvement up to 4.72% and 23.35%, respectively

For effective decision support in scenarios with conflicting objectives, sets of potentially optimal solutions can be presented to the decision maker. We explore both what policies these sets should contain and how such sets can be computed efficiently. With this in mind, we take a distributional approach and introduce a novel dominance criterion relating return distributions of policies directly. Based on this criterion, we present the distributional undominated set and show that it contains optimal policies otherwise ignored by the Pareto front. In addition, we propose the convex distributional undominated set and prove that it comprises all policies that maximise expected utility for multivariate risk-averse decision makers. We propose a novel algorithm to learn the distributional undominated set and further contribute pruning operators to reduce the set to the convex distributional undominated set. Through experiments, we demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of these methods, making this a valuable new approach for decision support in real-world problems.

The paper introduces DiSProD, an online planner developed for environments with probabilistic transitions in continuous state and action spaces. DiSProD builds a symbolic graph that captures the distribution of future trajectories, conditioned on a given policy, using independence assumptions and approximate propagation of distributions. The symbolic graph provides a differentiable representation of the policy's value, enabling efficient gradient-based optimization for long-horizon search. The propagation of approximate distributions can be seen as an aggregation of many trajectories, making it well-suited for dealing with sparse rewards and stochastic environments. An extensive experimental evaluation compares DiSProD to state-of-the-art planners in discrete-time planning and real-time control of robotic systems. The proposed method improves over existing planners in handling stochastic environments, sensitivity to search depth, sparsity of rewards, and large action spaces. Additional real-world experiments demonstrate that DiSProD can control ground vehicles and surface vessels to successfully navigate around obstacles.