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Because physics-based building models are difficult to obtain as each building is individual, there is an increasing interest in generating models suitable for building MPC directly from measurement data. Machine learning methods have been widely applied to this problem and validated mostly in simulation; there are, however, few studies on a direct comparison of different models or validation in real buildings to be found in the literature. Methods that are indeed validated in application often lead to computationally complex non-convex optimization problems. Here we compare physics-informed Autoregressive-Moving-Average with Exogenous Inputs (ARMAX) models to Machine Learning models based on Random Forests and Input Convex Neural Networks and the resulting convex MPC schemes in experiments on a practical building application with the goal of minimizing energy consumption while maintaining occupant comfort, and in a numerical case study. We demonstrate that Predictive Control in general leads to savings between 26% and 49% of heating and cooling energy, compared to the building's baseline hysteresis controller. Moreover, we show that all model types lead to satisfactory control performance in terms of constraint satisfaction and energy reduction. However, we also see that the physics-informed ARMAX models have a lower computational burden, and a superior sample efficiency compared to the Machine Learning based models. Moreover, even if abundant training data is available, the ARMAX models have a significantly lower prediction error than the Machine Learning models, which indicates that the encoded physics-based prior of the former cannot independently be found by the latter.

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. However, even for linear regression models, conjugate priors and closed-form posteriors are typically unavailable, thereby necessitating approximations or Markov chain Monte Carlo for posterior inference. For a broad class of count and rounded data regression models, we introduce conjugate priors that enable closed-form posterior inference. Key posterior and predictive functionals are computable analytically or via direct Monte Carlo simulation. Crucially, the predictive distributions are discrete to match the support of the data and can be evaluated or simulated jointly across multiple covariate values. These tools are broadly useful for linear regression, nonlinear models via basis expansions, and model and variable selection. Multiple simulation studies demonstrate significant advantages in computing, predictive modeling, and selection relative to existing alternatives.

Normalizing flows are inevitable neural networks with tractable change-of-volume terms, which allow optimization of their parameters to be efficiently performed via maximum likelihood. However, data of interest are typically assumed to live in some (often unknown) low-dimensional manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient space. The result is a modelling mismatch since -- by construction -- the invertibility requirement implies high-dimensional support of the learned distribution. Injective flows, mappings from low- to high-dimensional spaces, aim to fix this discrepancy by learning distributions on manifolds, but the resulting volume-change term becomes more challenging to evaluate. Current approaches either avoid computing this term entirely using various heuristics, or assume the manifold is known beforehand and therefore are not widely applicable. Instead, we propose two methods to tractably calculate the gradient of this term with respect to the parameters of the model, relying on careful use of automatic differentiation and techniques from numerical linear algebra. Both approaches perform end-to-end nonlinear manifold learning and density estimation for data projected onto this manifold. We study the trade-offs between our proposed methods, empirically verify that we outperform approaches ignoring the volume-change term by more accurately learning manifolds and the corresponding distributions on them, and show promising results on out-of-distribution detection. Our code is available at //github.com/layer6ai-labs/rectangular-flows.

Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC is sensitive to poor covariate overlap and cannot extrapolate beyond the observed covariate space. Current outcome regression-based alternatives can extrapolate but target a conditional treatment effect that is incompatible in the indirect comparison. When adjusting for covariates, one must integrate or average the conditional estimate over the population of interest to recover a compatible marginal treatment effect. We propose a marginalization method based on parametric G-computation that can be easily applied where the outcome regression is a generalized linear model or a Cox model. In addition, we introduce a novel general-purpose method based on multiple imputation, which we term multiple imputation marginalization (MIM) and is applicable to a wide range of models. Both methods can accommodate a Bayesian statistical framework, which naturally integrates the analysis into a probabilistic framework. A simulation study provides proof-of-principle for the methods and benchmarks their performance against MAIC and the conventional outcome regression. The marginalized outcome regression approaches achieve more precise and more accurate estimates than MAIC, particularly when covariate overlap is poor, and yield unbiased marginal treatment effect estimates under no failures of assumptions. Furthermore, the marginalized covariate-adjusted estimates provide greater precision and accuracy than the conditional estimates produced by the conventional outcome regression, which are systematically biased because the measure of effect is non-collapsible.

Much of the micro data used for epidemiological studies contain sensitive measurements on real individuals. As a result, such micro data cannot be published out of privacy concerns, rendering any published statistical analyses on them nearly impossible to reproduce. To promote the dissemination of key datasets for analysis without jeopardizing the privacy of individuals, we introduce a cohesive Bayesian framework for the generation of fully synthetic, high dimensional micro datasets of mixed categorical, binary, count, and continuous variables. This process centers around a joint Bayesian model that is simultaneously compatible with all of these data types, enabling the creation of mixed synthetic datasets through posterior predictive sampling. Furthermore, a focal point of epidemiological data analysis is the study of conditional relationships between various exposures and key outcome variables through regression analysis. We design a modified data synthesis strategy to target and preserve these conditional relationships, including both nonlinearities and interactions. The proposed techniques are deployed to create a synthetic version of a confidential dataset containing dozens of health, cognitive, and social measurements on nearly 20,000 North Carolina children.

We consider the problem of testing for long-range dependence for time-varying coefficient regression models. The covariates and errors are assumed to be locally stationary, which allows complex temporal dynamics and heteroscedasticity. We develop KPSS, R/S, V/S, and K/S-type statistics based on the nonparametric residuals, and propose bootstrap approaches equipped with a difference-based long-run covariance matrix estimator for practical implementation. Under the null hypothesis, the local alternatives as well as the fixed alternatives, we derive the limiting distributions of the test statistics, establish the uniform consistency of the difference-based long-run covariance estimator, and justify the bootstrap algorithms theoretically. In particular, the exact local asymptotic power of our testing procedure enjoys the order $O( \log^{-1} n)$, the same as that of the classical KPSS test for long memory in strictly stationary series without covariates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tests by extensive simulation studies. The proposed tests are applied to a COVID-19 dataset in favor of long-range dependence in the cumulative confirmed series of COVID-19 in several countries, and to the Hong Kong circulatory and respiratory dataset, identifying a new type of 'spurious long memory'.

In data analysis problems where we are not able to rely on distributional assumptions, what types of inference guarantees can still be obtained? Many popular methods, such as holdout methods, cross-validation methods, and conformal prediction, are able to provide distribution-free guarantees for predictive inference, but the problem of providing inference for the underlying regression function (for example, inference on the conditional mean $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$) is more challenging. In the setting where the features $X$ are continuously distributed, recent work has established that any confidence interval for $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ must have non-vanishing width, even as sample size tends to infinity. At the other extreme, if $X$ takes only a small number of possible values, then inference on $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ is trivial to achieve. In this work, we study the problem in settings in between these two extremes. We find that there are several distinct regimes in between the finite setting and the continuous setting, where vanishing-width confidence intervals are achievable if and only if the effective support size of the distribution of $X$ is smaller than the square of the sample size.

In this paper we study properties of the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution arising in nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. Our work is motivated by Schillings et al. (2020), where it is shown that in such a setting the Laplace approximation error in Hellinger distance converges to zero in the order of the noise level. Here, we prove novel error estimates for a given noise level that also quantify the effect due to the nonlinearity of the forward mapping and the dimension of the problem. In particular, we are interested in settings in which a linear forward mapping is perturbed by a small nonlinear mapping. Our results indicate that in this case, the Laplace approximation error is of the size of the perturbation. The paper provides insight into Bayesian inference in nonlinear inverse problems, where linearization of the forward mapping has suitable approximation properties.

Much stringent reliability and processing latency requirements in ultra-reliable-low-latency-communication (URLLC) traffic make the design of linear massive multiple-input-multiple-output (M-MIMO) receivers becomes very challenging. Recently, Bayesian concept has been used to increase the detection reliability in minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) linear receivers. However, the latency processing time is a major concern due to the exponential complexity of matrix inversion operations in MMSE schemes. This paper proposes an iterative M-MIMO receiver that is developed by using a Bayesian concept and a parallel interference cancellation (PIC) scheme, referred to as a linear Bayesian learning (LBL) receiver. PIC has a linear complexity as it uses a combination of maximum ratio combining (MRC) and decision statistic combining (DSC) schemes to avoid matrix inversion operations. Simulation results show that the bit-error-rate (BER) and latency processing performances of the proposed receiver outperform the ones of MMSE and best Bayesian-based receivers by minimum $2$ dB and $19$ times for various M-MIMO system configurations.

In two-phase image segmentation, convex relaxation has allowed global minimisers to be computed for a variety of data fitting terms. Many efficient approaches exist to compute a solution quickly. However, we consider whether the nature of the data fitting in this formulation allows for reasonable assumptions to be made about the solution that can improve the computational performance further. In particular, we employ a well known dual formulation of this problem and solve the corresponding equations in a restricted domain. We present experimental results that explore the dependence of the solution on this restriction and quantify imrovements in the computational performance. This approach can be extended to analogous methods simply and could provide an efficient alternative for problems of this type.