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We introduce a new approach to prediction in graphical models with latent-shift adaptation, i.e., where source and target environments differ in the distribution of an unobserved confounding latent variable. Previous work has shown that as long as "concept" and "proxy" variables with appropriate dependence are observed in the source environment, the latent-associated distributional changes can be identified, and target predictions adapted accurately. However, practical estimation methods do not scale well when the observations are complex and high-dimensional, even if the confounding latent is categorical. Here we build upon a recently proposed probabilistic unsupervised learning framework, the recognition-parametrised model (RPM), to recover low-dimensional, discrete latents from image observations. Applied to the problem of latent shifts, our novel form of RPM identifies causal latent structure in the source environment, and adapts properly to predict in the target. We demonstrate results in settings where predictor and proxy are high-dimensional images, a context to which previous methods fail to scale.

Penalized regression methods such as ridge regression heavily rely on the choice of a tuning or penalty parameter, which is often computed via cross-validation. Discrepancies in the value of the penalty parameter may lead to substantial differences in regression coefficient estimates and predictions. In this paper, we investigate the effect of single observations on the optimal choice of the tuning parameter, showing how the presence of influential points can change it dramatically. We distinguish between points as ``expanders'' and ``shrinkers'', based on their effect on the model complexity. Our approach supplies a visual exploratory tool to identify influential points, naturally implementable for high-dimensional data where traditional approaches usually fail. Applications to simulated and real data examples, both low- and high-dimensional, are presented. The visual tool is implemented in the R package influridge.

Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal queries, researchers developed polynomial programs to estimate tight bounds on causal effect. However, these are computationally difficult to optimize for variables with large support sizes. In this paper, we analyze the effect of "weak confounding" on causal estimands. More specifically, under the assumption that the unobserved confounders that render a query non-identifiable have small entropy, we propose an efficient linear program to derive the upper and lower bounds of the causal effect. We show that our bounds are consistent in the sense that as the entropy of unobserved confounders goes to zero, the gap between the upper and lower bound vanishes. Finally, we conduct synthetic and real data simulations to compare our bounds with the bounds obtained by the existing work that cannot incorporate such entropy constraints and show that our bounds are tighter for the setting with weak confounders.

Moving horizon estimation (MHE) is a widely studied state estimation approach in several practical applications. In the MHE problem, the state estimates are obtained via the solution of an approximated nonlinear optimization problem. However, this optimization step is known to be computationally complex. Given this limitation, this paper investigates the idea of iteratively preconditioned gradient-descent (IPG) to solve MHE problem with the aim of an improved performance than the existing solution techniques. To our knowledge, the preconditioning technique is used for the first time in this paper to reduce the computational cost and accelerate the crucial optimization step for MHE. The convergence guarantee of the proposed iterative approach for a class of MHE problems is presented. Additionally, sufficient conditions for the MHE problem to be convex are also derived. Finally, the proposed method is implemented on a unicycle localization example. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve better accuracy with reduced computational costs.

Long-term visual localization is an essential problem in robotics and computer vision, but remains challenging due to the environmental appearance changes caused by lighting and seasons. While many existing works have attempted to solve it by directly learning invariant sparse keypoints and descriptors to match scenes, these approaches still struggle with adverse appearance changes. Recent developments in image transformations such as neural style transfer have emerged as an alternative to address such appearance gaps. In this work, we propose to combine an image transformation network and a feature-learning network to improve long-term localization performance. Given night-to-day image pairs, the image transformation network transforms the night images into day-like conditions prior to feature matching; the feature network learns to detect keypoint locations with their associated descriptor values, which can be passed to a classical pose estimator to compute the relative poses. We conducted various experiments to examine the effectiveness of combining style transfer and feature learning and its training strategy, showing that such a combination greatly improves long-term localization performance.

In recent years, studies such as \cite{carmon2019unlabeled,gowal2021improving,xing2022artificial} have demonstrated that incorporating additional real or generated data with pseudo-labels can enhance adversarial training through a two-stage training approach. In this paper, we perform a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic behavior of this method in high-dimensional linear regression. While a double-descent phenomenon can be observed in ridgeless training, with an appropriate $\mathcal{L}_2$ regularization, the two-stage adversarial training achieves a better performance. Finally, we derive a shortcut cross-validation formula specifically tailored for the two-stage training method.

We present a novel technique to estimate the 6D pose of objects from single images where the 3D geometry of the object is only given approximately and not as a precise 3D model. To achieve this, we employ a dense 2D-to-3D correspondence predictor that regresses 3D model coordinates for every pixel. In addition to the 3D coordinates, our model also estimates the pixel-wise coordinate error to discard correspondences that are likely wrong. This allows us to generate multiple 6D pose hypotheses of the object, which we then refine iteratively using a highly efficient region-based approach. We also introduce a novel pixel-wise posterior formulation by which we can estimate the probability for each hypothesis and select the most likely one. As we show in experiments, our approach is capable of dealing with extreme visual conditions including overexposure, high contrast, or low signal-to-noise ratio. This makes it a powerful technique for the particularly challenging task of estimating the pose of tumbling satellites for in-orbit robotic applications. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the SPEED+ dataset and has won the SPEC2021 post-mortem competition.

State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are obtained. The linear-Gaussian state-space model is widely used, since it allows for exact inference when all model parameters are known, however this is rarely the case. The estimation of these parameters is a very challenging but essential task to perform inference and prediction. In the linear-Gaussian model, the state dynamics are described via a state transition matrix. This model parameter is known to behard to estimate, since it encodes the relationships between the state elements, which are never observed. In many applications, this transition matrix is sparse since not all state components directly affect all other state components. However, most parameter estimation methods do not exploit this feature. In this work we propose SpaRJ, a fully probabilistic Bayesian approach that obtains sparse samples from the posterior distribution of the transition matrix. Our method explores sparsity by traversing a set of models that exhibit differing sparsity patterns in the transition matrix. Moreover, we also design new effective rules to explore transition matrices within the same level of sparsity. This novel methodology has strong theoretical guarantees, and unveils the latent structure of the data generating process, thereby enhancing interpretability. The performance of SpaRJ is showcased in example with dimension 144 in the parameter space, and in a numerical example with real data.

In recent years, promising statistical modeling approaches to tensor data analysis have been rapidly developed. Traditional multivariate analysis tools, such as multivariate regression and discriminant analysis, are generalized from modeling random vectors and matrices to higher-order random tensors. One of the biggest challenges to statistical tensor models is the non-Gaussian nature of many real-world data. Unfortunately, existing approaches are either restricted to normality or implicitly using least squares type objective functions that are computationally efficient but sensitive to data contamination. Motivated by this, we adopt a simple tensor t-distribution that is, unlike the commonly used matrix t-distributions, compatible with tensor operators and reshaping of the data. We study the tensor response regression with tensor t-error, and develop penalized likelihood-based estimation and a novel one-step estimation. We study the asymptotic relative efficiency of various estimators and establish the one-step estimator's oracle properties and near-optimal asymptotic efficiency. We further propose a high-dimensional modification to the one-step estimation procedure and show that it attains the minimax optimal rate in estimation. Numerical studies show the excellent performance of the one-step estimator.

Classic algorithms and machine learning systems like neural networks are both abundant in everyday life. While classic computer science algorithms are suitable for precise execution of exactly defined tasks such as finding the shortest path in a large graph, neural networks allow learning from data to predict the most likely answer in more complex tasks such as image classification, which cannot be reduced to an exact algorithm. To get the best of both worlds, this thesis explores combining both concepts leading to more robust, better performing, more interpretable, more computationally efficient, and more data efficient architectures. The thesis formalizes the idea of algorithmic supervision, which allows a neural network to learn from or in conjunction with an algorithm. When integrating an algorithm into a neural architecture, it is important that the algorithm is differentiable such that the architecture can be trained end-to-end and gradients can be propagated back through the algorithm in a meaningful way. To make algorithms differentiable, this thesis proposes a general method for continuously relaxing algorithms by perturbing variables and approximating the expectation value in closed form, i.e., without sampling. In addition, this thesis proposes differentiable algorithms, such as differentiable sorting networks, differentiable renderers, and differentiable logic gate networks. Finally, this thesis presents alternative training strategies for learning with algorithms.