Predictive models for clinical outcomes that are accurate on average in a patient population may underperform drastically for some subpopulations, potentially introducing or reinforcing inequities in care access and quality. Model training approaches that aim to maximize worst-case model performance across subpopulations, such as distributionally robust optimization (DRO), attempt to address this problem without introducing additional harms. We conduct a large-scale empirical study of DRO and several variations of standard learning procedures to identify approaches for model development and selection that consistently improve disaggregated and worst-case performance over subpopulations compared to standard approaches for learning predictive models from electronic health records data. In the course of our evaluation, we introduce an extension to DRO approaches that allows for specification of the metric used to assess worst-case performance. We conduct the analysis for models that predict in-hospital mortality, prolonged length of stay, and 30-day readmission for inpatient admissions, and predict in-hospital mortality using intensive care data. We find that, with relatively few exceptions, no approach performs better, for each patient subpopulation examined, than standard learning procedures using the entire training dataset. These results imply that when it is of interest to improve model performance for patient subpopulations beyond what can be achieved with standard practices, it may be necessary to do so via data collection techniques that increase the effective sample size or reduce the level of noise in the prediction problem.
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High-capacity deep neural networks (DNNs) trained with Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) often suffer from poor worst-group accuracy despite good on-average performance, where worst-group accuracy measures a model's robustness towards certain subpopulations of the input space. Spurious correlations and memorization behaviors of ERM trained DNNs are typically attributed to this degradation in performance. We develop a method, called CRIS, that address these issues by performing robust classifier retraining on independent splits of the dataset. This results in a simple method that improves upon state-of-the-art methods, such as Group DRO, on standard datasets while relying on much fewer group labels and little additional hyperparameter tuning.
We consider the problem of training a classification model with group annotated training data. Recent work has established that, if there is distribution shift across different groups, models trained using the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) objective suffer from poor performance on minority groups and that group distributionally robust optimization (Group-DRO) objective is a better alternative. The starting point of this paper is the observation that though Group-DRO performs better than ERM on minority groups for some benchmark datasets, there are several other datasets where it performs much worse than ERM. Inspired by ideas from the closely related problem of domain generalization, this paper proposes a new and simple algorithm that explicitly encourages learning of features that are shared across various groups. The key insight behind our proposed algorithm is that while Group-DRO focuses on groups with worst regularized loss, focusing instead, on groups that enable better performance even on other groups, could lead to learning of shared/common features, thereby enhancing minority performance beyond what is achieved by Group-DRO. Empirically, we show that our proposed algorithm matches or achieves better performance compared to strong contemporary baselines including ERM and Group-DRO on standard benchmarks on both minority groups and across all groups. Theoretically, we show that the proposed algorithm is a descent method and finds first order stationary points of smooth nonconvex functions.
We introduce a new distortion measure for point processes called functional-covering distortion. It is inspired by intensity theory and is related to both the covering of point processes and logarithmic loss distortion. We obtain the distortion-rate function with feedforward under this distortion measure for a large class of point processes. For Poisson processes, the rate-distortion function is obtained under a general condition called constrained functional-covering distortion, of which both covering and functional-covering are special cases. Also for Poisson processes, we characterize the rate-distortion region for a two-encoder CEO problem and show that feedforward does not enlarge this region.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.
Developing technology and changing lifestyles have made online grocery delivery applications an indispensable part of urban life. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for such applications has dramatically increased, creating new competitors that disrupt the market. An increasing level of competition might prompt companies to frequently restructure their marketing and product pricing strategies. Therefore, identifying the change patterns in product prices and sales volumes would provide a competitive advantage for the companies in the marketplace. In this paper, we investigate alternative clustering methodologies to group the products based on the price patterns and sales volumes. We propose a novel distance metric that takes into account how product prices and sales move together rather than calculating the distance using numerical values. We compare our approach with traditional clustering algorithms, which typically rely on generic distance metrics such as Euclidean distance, and image clustering approaches that aim to group data by capturing its visual patterns. We evaluate the performances of different clustering algorithms using our custom evaluation metric as well as Calinski Harabasz and Davies Bouldin indices, which are commonly used internal validity metrics. We conduct our numerical study using a propriety price dataset from an online food and grocery delivery company, and the publicly available Favorita sales dataset. We find that our proposed clustering approach and image clustering both perform well for finding the products with similar price and sales patterns within large datasets.
Requirements engineering (RE) activities for Machine Learning (ML) are not well-established and researched in the literature. Many issues and challenges exist when specifying, designing, and developing ML-enabled systems. Adding more focus on RE for ML can help to develop more reliable ML-enabled systems. Based on insights collected from previous work and industrial experiences, we propose a catalogue of 45 concerns to be considered when specifying ML-enabled systems, covering five different perspectives we identified as relevant for such systems: objectives, user experience, infrastructure, model, and data. Examples of such concerns include the execution engine and telemetry for the infrastructure perspective, and explainability and reproducibility for the model perspective. We conducted a focus group session with eight software professionals with experience developing ML-enabled systems to validate the importance, quality and feasibility of using our catalogue. The feedback allowed us to improve the catalogue and confirmed its practical relevance. The main research contribution of this work consists in providing a validated set of concerns grouped into perspectives that can be used by requirements engineers to support the specification of ML-enabled systems.
Learning accurate classifiers for novel categories from very few examples, known as few-shot image classification, is a challenging task in statistical machine learning and computer vision. The performance in few-shot classification suffers from the bias in the estimation of classifier parameters; however, an effective underlying bias reduction technique that could alleviate this issue in training few-shot classifiers has been overlooked. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Firth bias reduction in few-shot classification. Theoretically, Firth bias reduction removes the $O(N^{-1})$ first order term from the small-sample bias of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator. Here we show that the general Firth bias reduction technique simplifies to encouraging uniform class assignment probabilities for multinomial logistic classification, and almost has the same effect in cosine classifiers. We derive an easy-to-implement optimization objective for Firth penalized multinomial logistic and cosine classifiers, which is equivalent to penalizing the cross-entropy loss with a KL-divergence between the uniform label distribution and the predictions. Then, we empirically evaluate that it is consistently effective across the board for few-shot image classification, regardless of (1) the feature representations from different backbones, (2) the number of samples per class, and (3) the number of classes. Finally, we show the robustness of Firth bias reduction, in the case of imbalanced data distribution. Our implementation is available at //github.com/ehsansaleh/firth_bias_reduction
Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.
Verifiability is one of the core editing principles in Wikipedia, where editors are encouraged to provide citations for the added statements. Statements can be any arbitrary piece of text, ranging from a sentence up to a paragraph. However, in many cases, citations are either outdated, missing, or link to non-existing references (e.g. dead URL, moved content etc.). In total, 20\% of the cases such citations refer to news articles and represent the second most cited source. Even in cases where citations are provided, there are no explicit indicators for the span of a citation for a given piece of text. In addition to issues related with the verifiability principle, many Wikipedia entity pages are incomplete, with relevant information that is already available in online news sources missing. Even for the already existing citations, there is often a delay between the news publication time and the reference time. In this thesis, we address the aforementioned issues and propose automated approaches that enforce the verifiability principle in Wikipedia, and suggest relevant and missing news references for further enriching Wikipedia entity pages.
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