Learning graphs from sets of nodal observations represents a prominent problem formally known as graph topology inference. However, current approaches are limited by typically focusing on inferring single networks, and they assume that observations from all nodes are available. First, many contemporary setups involve multiple related networks, and second, it is often the case that only a subset of nodes is observed while the rest remain hidden. Motivated by these facts, we introduce a joint graph topology inference method that models the influence of the hidden variables. Under the assumptions that the observed signals are stationary on the sought graphs and the graphs are closely related, the joint estimation of multiple networks allows us to exploit such relationships to improve the quality of the learned graphs. Moreover, we confront the challenging problem of modeling the influence of the hidden nodes to minimize their detrimental effect. To obtain an amenable approach, we take advantage of the particular structure of the setup at hand and leverage the similarity between the different graphs, which affects both the observed and the hidden nodes. To test the proposed method, numerical simulations over synthetic and real-world graphs are provided.
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Estimating individualized treatment effects (ITEs) from observational data is crucial for decision-making. In order to obtain unbiased ITE estimates, a common assumption is that all confounders are observed. However, in practice, it is unlikely that we observe these confounders directly. Instead, we often observe noisy measurements of true confounders, which can serve as valid proxies. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating ITE in the longitudinal setting where we observe noisy proxies instead of true confounders. To this end, we develop the Deconfounding Temporal Autoencoder, a novel method that leverages observed noisy proxies to learn a hidden embedding that reflects the true hidden confounders. In particular, the DTA combines a long short-term memory autoencoder with a causal regularization penalty that renders the potential outcomes and treatment assignment conditionally independent given the learned hidden embedding. Once the hidden embedding is learned via DTA, state-of-the-art outcome models can be used to control for it and obtain unbiased estimates of ITE. Using synthetic and real-world medical data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DTA by improving over state-of-the-art benchmarks by a substantial margin.
Efficient Bayesian inference remains a computational challenge in hierarchical models. Simulation-based approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are still popular but have a large computational cost. When dealing with the large class of Latent Gaussian Models, the INLA methodology embedded in the R-INLA software provides accurate Bayesian inference by computing deterministic mixture representation to approximate the joint posterior, from which marginals are computed. The INLA approach has from the beginning been targeting to approximate univariate posteriors. In this paper we lay out the development foundation of the tools for also providing joint approximations for subsets of the latent field. These approximations inherit Gaussian copula structure and additionally provide corrections for skewness. The same idea is carried forward also to sampling from the mixture representation, which we now can adjust for skewness.
We consider the optimal decision-making problem in a primary sample of interest with multiple auxiliary sources available. The outcome of interest is limited in the sense that it is only observed in the primary sample. In reality, such multiple data sources may belong to heterogeneous studies and thus cannot be combined directly. This paper proposes a new framework to handle heterogeneous studies and address the limited outcome simultaneously through a novel calibrated optimal decision making (CODA) method, by leveraging the common intermediate outcomes in multiple data sources. Specifically, CODA allows the baseline covariates across different samples to have either homogeneous or heterogeneous distributions. Under a mild and testable assumption that the conditional means of intermediate outcomes in different samples are equal given baseline covariates and the treatment information, we show that the proposed CODA estimator of the conditional mean outcome is asymptotically normal and more efficient than using the primary sample solely. In addition, the variance of the CODA estimator can be easily obtained using the simple plug-in method due to the rate double robustness. Extensive experiments on simulated datasets demonstrate empirical validity and improved efficiency using CODA, followed by a real application to a MIMIC-III dataset as the primary sample with the auxiliary data from eICU.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Many representative graph neural networks, $e.g.$, GPR-GNN and ChebyNet, approximate graph convolutions with graph spectral filters. However, existing work either applies predefined filter weights or learns them without necessary constraints, which may lead to oversimplified or ill-posed filters. To overcome these issues, we propose $\textit{BernNet}$, a novel graph neural network with theoretical support that provides a simple but effective scheme for designing and learning arbitrary graph spectral filters. In particular, for any filter over the normalized Laplacian spectrum of a graph, our BernNet estimates it by an order-$K$ Bernstein polynomial approximation and designs its spectral property by setting the coefficients of the Bernstein basis. Moreover, we can learn the coefficients (and the corresponding filter weights) based on observed graphs and their associated signals and thus achieve the BernNet specialized for the data. Our experiments demonstrate that BernNet can learn arbitrary spectral filters, including complicated band-rejection and comb filters, and it achieves superior performance in real-world graph modeling tasks.
This paper is concerned with data-driven unsupervised domain adaptation, where it is unknown in advance how the joint distribution changes across domains, i.e., what factors or modules of the data distribution remain invariant or change across domains. To develop an automated way of domain adaptation with multiple source domains, we propose to use a graphical model as a compact way to encode the change property of the joint distribution, which can be learned from data, and then view domain adaptation as a problem of Bayesian inference on the graphical models. Such a graphical model distinguishes between constant and varied modules of the distribution and specifies the properties of the changes across domains, which serves as prior knowledge of the changing modules for the purpose of deriving the posterior of the target variable $Y$ in the target domain. This provides an end-to-end framework of domain adaptation, in which additional knowledge about how the joint distribution changes, if available, can be directly incorporated to improve the graphical representation. We discuss how causality-based domain adaptation can be put under this umbrella. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework for domain adaptation. The code is available at //github.com/mgong2/DA_Infer .
We study the link between generalization and interference in temporal-difference (TD) learning. Interference is defined as the inner product of two different gradients, representing their alignment. This quantity emerges as being of interest from a variety of observations about neural networks, parameter sharing and the dynamics of learning. We find that TD easily leads to low-interference, under-generalizing parameters, while the effect seems reversed in supervised learning. We hypothesize that the cause can be traced back to the interplay between the dynamics of interference and bootstrapping. This is supported empirically by several observations: the negative relationship between the generalization gap and interference in TD, the negative effect of bootstrapping on interference and the local coherence of targets, and the contrast between the propagation rate of information in TD(0) versus TD($\lambda$) and regression tasks such as Monte-Carlo policy evaluation. We hope that these new findings can guide the future discovery of better bootstrapping methods.
We aim to better understand attention over nodes in graph neural networks (GNNs) and identify factors influencing its effectiveness. We particularly focus on the ability of attention GNNs to generalize to larger, more complex or noisy graphs. Motivated by insights from the work on Graph Isomorphism Networks, we design simple graph reasoning tasks that allow us to study attention in a controlled environment. We find that under typical conditions the effect of attention is negligible or even harmful, but under certain conditions it provides an exceptional gain in performance of more than 60% in some of our classification tasks. Satisfying these conditions in practice is challenging and often requires optimal initialization or supervised training of attention. We propose an alternative recipe and train attention in a weakly-supervised fashion that approaches the performance of supervised models, and, compared to unsupervised models, improves results on several synthetic as well as real datasets. Source code and datasets are available at //github.com/bknyaz/graph_attention_pool.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exist underlying latent variables (assemble of all paths connecting these two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relation. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and cope with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on NELL-995 and FB15K datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
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