Machine Learning (ML) systems are becoming instrumental in the public sector, with applications spanning areas like criminal justice, social welfare, financial fraud detection, and public health. While these systems offer great potential benefits to institutional decision-making processes, such as improved efficiency and reliability, they still face the challenge of aligning intricate and nuanced policy objectives with the precise formalization requirements necessitated by ML models. In this paper, we aim to bridge the gap between ML and public sector decision-making by presenting a comprehensive overview of key technical challenges where disjunctions between policy goals and ML models commonly arise. We concentrate on pivotal points of the ML pipeline that connect the model to its operational environment, delving into the significance of representative training data and highlighting the importance of a model setup that facilitates effective decision-making. Additionally, we link these challenges with emerging methodological advancements, encompassing causal ML, domain adaptation, uncertainty quantification, and multi-objective optimization, illustrating the path forward for harmonizing ML and public sector objectives.
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Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a crucial step for large language models (LLMs), enabling them to align with human instructions and enhance their capabilities in downstream tasks. When the models are required to align with a broader range of downstream tasks, or there is a desire to notably improve the performance on a specific task, a substantial increase in fine-tuning data often emerges as the solution. However, we find that large-scale increases in instruction data can disrupt the world knowledge previously stored in the LLMs, i.e., world knowledge forgetting. In this paper, we introduce LoRAMoE to address above challenge. The LoRAMoE is a plugin version of Mixture of Experts (MoE). The plugin-form ensures the integrity of world knowledge by freezing the backbone model during the training phase. And we propose the use of localized balancing constraints to coordinate parts of experts for task utilization, meanwhile enables other experts to to fully leverage the world knowledge stored in the models. Experimental results demonstrate that LoRAMoE can reasonly coordinate experts based on data type during inference, and even dramatically increasing instruction data does not result in knowledge forgetting. Moreover, LoRAMoE provides additional benefits for the performance of downstream tasks, indicating the potential of our approach for multi-task learning.
Explaining predictions of black-box neural networks is crucial when applied to decision-critical tasks. Thus, attribution maps are commonly used to identify important image regions, despite prior work showing that humans prefer explanations based on similar examples. To this end, ProtoPNet learns a set of class-representative feature vectors (prototypes) for case-based reasoning. During inference, similarities of latent features to prototypes are linearly classified to form predictions and attribution maps are provided to explain the similarity. In this work, we evaluate whether architectures for case-based reasoning fulfill established axioms required for faithful explanations using the example of ProtoPNet. We show that such architectures allow the extraction of faithful explanations. However, we prove that the attribution maps used to explain the similarities violate the axioms. We propose a new procedure to extract explanations for trained ProtoPNets, named ProtoPFaith. Conceptually, these explanations are Shapley values, calculated on the similarity scores of each prototype. They allow to faithfully answer which prototypes are present in an unseen image and quantify each pixel's contribution to that presence, thereby complying with all axioms. The theoretical violations of ProtoPNet manifest in our experiments on three datasets (CUB-200-2011, Stanford Dogs, RSNA) and five architectures (ConvNet, ResNet, ResNet50, WideResNet50, ResNeXt50). Our experiments show a qualitative difference between the explanations given by ProtoPNet and ProtoPFaith. Additionally, we quantify the explanations with the Area Over the Perturbation Curve, on which ProtoPFaith outperforms ProtoPNet on all experiments by a factor $>10^3$.
Using machine learning (ML) techniques to predict material properties is a crucial research topic. These properties depend on numerical data and semantic factors. Due to the limitations of small-sample datasets, existing methods typically adopt ML algorithms to regress numerical properties or transfer other pre-trained knowledge graphs (KGs) to the material. However, these methods cannot simultaneously handle semantic and numerical information. In this paper, we propose a numerical reasoning method for material KGs (NR-KG), which constructs a cross-modal KG using semantic nodes and numerical proxy nodes. It captures both types of information by projecting KG into a canonical KG and utilizes a graph neural network to predict material properties. In this process, a novel projection prediction loss is proposed to extract semantic features from numerical information. NR-KG facilitates end-to-end processing of cross-modal data, mining relationships and cross-modal information in small-sample datasets, and fully utilizes valuable experimental data to enhance material prediction. We further propose two new High-Entropy Alloys (HEA) property datasets with semantic descriptions. NR-KG outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, achieving relative improvements of 25.9% and 16.1% on two material datasets. Besides, NR-KG surpasses SOTA methods on two public physical chemistry molecular datasets, showing improvements of 22.2% and 54.3%, highlighting its potential application and generalizability. We hope the proposed datasets, algorithms, and pre-trained models can facilitate the communities of KG and AI for materials.
Anomalous sound detection (ASD) systems are usually compared by using threshold-independent performance measures such as AUC-ROC. However, for practical applications a decision threshold is needed to decide whether a given test sample is normal or anomalous. Estimating such a threshold is highly non-trivial in a semi-supervised setting where only normal training samples are available. In this work, F1-EV a novel threshold-independent performance measure for ASD systems that also includes the likelihood of estimating a good decision threshold is proposed and motivated using specific toy examples. In experimental evaluations, multiple performance measures are evaluated for all systems submitted to the ASD task of the DCASE Challenge 2023. It is shown that F1-EV is strongly correlated with AUC-ROC while having a significantly stronger correlation with the F1-score obtained with estimated and optimal decision thresholds than AUC-ROC.
Combinatorial Optimization (CO) problems over graphs appear routinely in many applications such as in optimizing traffic, viral marketing in social networks, and matching for job allocation. Due to their combinatorial nature, these problems are often NP-hard. Existing approximation algorithms and heuristics rely on the search space to find the solutions and become time-consuming when this space is large. In this paper, we design a neural method called COMBHelper to reduce this space and thus improve the efficiency of the traditional CO algorithms based on node selection. Specifically, it employs a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to identify promising nodes for the solution set. This pruned search space is then fed to the traditional CO algorithms. COMBHelper also uses a Knowledge Distillation (KD) module and a problem-specific boosting module to bring further efficiency and efficacy. Our extensive experiments show that the traditional CO algorithms with COMBHelper are at least 2 times faster than their original versions.
Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their estimation using real data has remained a challenge. The approach we introduce in this article attempts to overcome this limitation. Using likelihood-free inference techniques, we show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of a simple but demographically interpretable individual-level model of the reproductive process from a set of aggregate fertility rates. By estimating individual-level quantities from widely available aggregate data, this approach can contribute to a better understanding of reproductive behavior and its driving mechanisms. It also allows for a more direct link between individual-level and population-level processes. We illustrate our approach using data from three natural fertility populations.
Thompson sampling (TS) has been known for its outstanding empirical performance supported by theoretical guarantees across various reward models in the classical stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. Nonetheless, its optimality is often restricted to specific priors due to the common observation that TS is fairly insensitive to the choice of the prior when it comes to asymptotic regret bounds. However, when the model contains multiple parameters, the optimality of TS highly depends on the choice of priors, which casts doubt on the generalizability of previous findings to other models. To address this gap, this study explores the impact of selecting noninformative priors, offering insights into the performance of TS when dealing with new models that lack theoretical understanding. We first extend the regret analysis of TS to the model of uniform distributions with unknown supports, which would be the simplest non-regular model. Our findings reveal that changing noninformative priors can significantly affect the expected regret, aligning with previously known results in other multiparameter bandit models. Although the uniform prior is shown to be optimal, we highlight the inherent limitation of its optimality, which is limited to specific parameterizations and emphasizes the significance of the invariance property of priors. In light of this limitation, we propose a slightly modified TS-based policy, called TS with Truncation (TS-T), which can achieve the asymptotic optimality for the Gaussian models and the uniform models by using the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior that are invariant under one-to-one reparameterizations. This policy provides an alternative approach to achieving optimality by employing fine-tuned truncation, which would be much easier than hunting for optimal priors in practice.
The open-source publishing of large language models (LLMs) has created many possibilities for how anyone who understands language and has access to a computer can interact with significant tools of artificial intelligence, particularly in the context of learning and knowledge dissemination. However, the utility of these models in specialized fields like Classics is still largely unexplored. This project is an attempt to merge the knowledge of Classics with the capabilities of artificial intelligence by finetuning an LLM to cater to the specific needs of learners and professionals. The goal of this project is to develop an LLM that not only reproduces contextual knowledge accurately but also exhibits a consistent "personality" - and, indeed, has consistent propriety - to appeal to a diverse audience who possess differing levels of knowledge. A significant portion of this project was dedicated to refining the dataset, following the principle of "garbage in, garbage out," to ensure the model generates relevant, useful, and creative responses when given a prompt (a statement, question, or single word). After training and evaluation, my model's ability to handle a vast array of different types of inputs and prompting exceeded expectations for a 355M parameter model, though its occasional hallucinations (especially when set with a high temperature), particularly in its assertions about historical events or its own identity, make it seem somewhat capricious and more work in the form of continuous finetuning will be undertaken.
This paper presents a large-scale analysis of the cryptocurrency community on Reddit, shedding light on the intricate relationship between the evolution of their activity, emotional dynamics, and price movements. We analyze over 130M posts on 122 cryptocurrency-related subreddits using temporal analysis, statistical modeling, and emotion detection. While /r/CryptoCurrency and /r/dogecoin are the most active subreddits, we find an overall surge in cryptocurrency-related activity in 2021, followed by a sharp decline. We also uncover a strong relationship in terms of cross-correlation between online activity and the price of various coins, with the changes in the number of posts mostly leading the price changes. Backtesting analysis shows that a straightforward strategy based on the cross-correlation where one buys/sells a coin if the daily number of posts about it is greater/less than the previous would have led to a 3x return on investment. Finally, we shed light on the emotional dynamics of the cryptocurrency communities, finding that joy becomes a prominent indicator during upward market performance, while a decline in the market manifests an increase in anger.
Deep Learning algorithms have achieved the state-of-the-art performance for Image Classification and have been used even in security-critical applications, such as biometric recognition systems and self-driving cars. However, recent works have shown those algorithms, which can even surpass the human capabilities, are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In Computer Vision, adversarial examples are images containing subtle perturbations generated by malicious optimization algorithms in order to fool classifiers. As an attempt to mitigate these vulnerabilities, numerous countermeasures have been constantly proposed in literature. Nevertheless, devising an efficient defense mechanism has proven to be a difficult task, since many approaches have already shown to be ineffective to adaptive attackers. Thus, this self-containing paper aims to provide all readerships with a review of the latest research progress on Adversarial Machine Learning in Image Classification, however with a defender's perspective. Here, novel taxonomies for categorizing adversarial attacks and defenses are introduced and discussions about the existence of adversarial examples are provided. Further, in contrast to exisiting surveys, it is also given relevant guidance that should be taken into consideration by researchers when devising and evaluating defenses. Finally, based on the reviewed literature, it is discussed some promising paths for future research.
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