A class of stochastic Besov spaces $B^p L^2(\Omega;\dot H^\alpha(\mathcal{O}))$, $1\le p\le\infty$ and $\alpha\in[-2,2]$, is introduced to characterize the regularity of the noise in the semilinear stochastic heat equation \begin{equation*} {\rm d} u -\Delta u {\rm d} t =f(u) {\rm d} t + {\rm d} W(t) , \end{equation*} under the following conditions for some $\alpha\in(0,1]$: $$ \Big\| \int_0^te^{-(t-s)A}{\rm d} W(s) \Big\|_{L^2(\Omega;L^2(\mathcal{O}))} \le C t^{\frac{\alpha}{2}} \quad\mbox{and}\quad \Big\| \int_0^te^{-(t-s)A}{\rm d} W(s) \Big\|_{B^\infty L^2(\Omega;\dot H^\alpha(\mathcal{O}))}\le C. $$ The conditions above are shown to be satisfied by both trace-class noises (with $\alpha=1$) and one-dimensional space-time white noises (with $\alpha=\frac12$). The latter would fail to satisfy the conditions with $\alpha=\frac12$ if the stochastic Besov norm $\|\cdot\|_{B^\infty L^2(\Omega;\dot H^\alpha(\mathcal{O}))}$ is replaced by the classical Sobolev norm $\|\cdot\|_{L^2(\Omega;\dot H^\alpha(\mathcal{O}))}$, and this often causes reduction of the convergence order in the numerical analysis of the semilinear stochastic heat equation. In this article, the convergence of a modified exponential Euler method, with a spectral method for spatial discretization, is proved to have order $\alpha$ in both time and space for possibly nonsmooth initial data in $L^4(\Omega;\dot{H}^{\beta}(\mathcal{O}))$ with $\beta>-1$, by utilizing the real interpolation properties of the stochastic Besov spaces and a class of locally refined stepsizes to resolve the singularity of the solution at $t=0$.
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Gaussianization is a simple generative model that can be trained without backpropagation. It has shown compelling performance on low dimensional data. As the dimension increases, however, it has been observed that the convergence speed slows down. We show analytically that the number of required layers scales linearly with the dimension for Gaussian input. We argue that this is because the model is unable to capture dependencies between dimensions. Empirically, we find the same linear increase in cost for arbitrary input $p(x)$, but observe favorable scaling for some distributions. We explore potential speed-ups and formulate challenges for further research.
We consider the numerical approximation of second-order semi-linear parabolic stochastic partial differential equations interpreted in the mild sense which we solve on general two-dimensional domains with a $\mathcal{C}^2$ boundary with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. The equations are driven by Gaussian additive noise, and several Lipschitz-like conditions are imposed on the nonlinear function. We discretize in space with a spectral Galerkin method and in time using an explicit Euler-like scheme. For irregular shapes, the necessary Dirichlet eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are obtained from a boundary integral equation method. This yields a nonlinear eigenvalue problem, which is discretized using a boundary element collocation method and is solved with the Beyn contour integral algorithm. We present an error analysis as well as numerical results on an exemplary asymmetric shape, and point out limitations of the approach.
This paper presents a novel generic asymptotic expansion formula of expectations of multidimensional Wiener functionals through a Malliavin calculus technique. The uniform estimate of the asymptotic expansion is shown under a weaker condition on the Malliavin covariance matrix of the target Wiener functional. In particular, the method provides a tractable expansion for the expectation of an irregular functional of the solution to a multidimensional rough differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H<1/2$, without using complicated fractional integral calculus for the singular kernel. In a numerical experiment, our expansion shows a much better approximation for a probability distribution function than its normal approximation, which demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.
Considering that both the entropy-based market information and the Hurst exponent are useful tools for determining whether the efficient market hypothesis holds for a given asset, we study the link between the two approaches. We thus provide a theoretical expression for the market information when log-prices follow either a fractional Brownian motion or its stationary extension using the Lamperti transform. In the latter model, we show that a Hurst exponent close to 1/2 can lead to a very high informativeness of the time series, because of the stationarity mechanism. In addition, we introduce a multiscale method to get a deeper interpretation of the entropy and of the market information, depending on the size of the information set. Applications to Bitcoin, CAC 40 index, Nikkei 225 index, and EUR/USD FX rate, using daily or intraday data, illustrate the methodological content.
In this paper, we consider the problem of joint parameter estimation for drift and diffusion coefficients of a stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation and for the associated system of interacting particles. The analysis is provided in a general framework, as both coefficients depend on the solution of the process and on the law of the solution itself. Starting from discrete observations of the interacting particle system over a fixed interval $[0, T]$, we propose a contrast function based on a pseudo likelihood approach. We show that the associated estimator is consistent when the discretization step ($\Delta_n$) and the number of particles ($N$) satisfy $\Delta_n \rightarrow 0$ and $N \rightarrow \infty$, and asymptotically normal when additionally the condition $\Delta_n N \rightarrow 0$ holds.
We propose a model to flexibly estimate joint tail properties by exploiting the convergence of an appropriately scaled point cloud onto a compact limit set. Characteristics of the shape of the limit set correspond to key tail dependence properties. We directly model the shape of the limit set using B\'ezier splines, which allow flexible and parsimonious specification of shapes in two dimensions. We then fit the B\'ezier splines to data in pseudo-polar coordinates using Markov chain Monte Carlo, utilizing a limiting approximation to the conditional likelihood of the radii given angles. By imposing appropriate constraints on the parameters of the B\'ezier splines, we guarantee that each posterior sample is a valid limit set boundary, allowing direct posterior analysis of any quantity derived from the shape of the curve. Furthermore, we obtain interpretable inference on the asymptotic dependence class by using mixture priors with point masses on the corner of the unit box. Finally, we apply our model to bivariate datasets of extremes of variables related to fire risk and air pollution.
The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.
Many multivariate data sets exhibit a form of positive dependence, which can either appear globally between all variables or only locally within particular subgroups. A popular notion of positive dependence that allows for localized positivity is positive association. In this work we introduce the notion of extremal positive association for multivariate extremes from threshold exceedances. Via a sufficient condition for extremal association, we show that extremal association generalizes extremal tree models. For H\"usler--Reiss distributions the sufficient condition permits a parametric description that we call the metric property. As the parameter of a H\"usler--Reiss distribution is a Euclidean distance matrix, the metric property relates to research in electrical network theory and Euclidean geometry. We show that the metric property can be localized with respect to a graph and study surrogate likelihood inference. This gives rise to a two-step estimation procedure for locally metrical H\"usler--Reiss graphical models. The second step allows for a simple dual problem, which is implemented via a gradient descent algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate our results on simulated and real data.
We present implicit and explicit versions of a numerical algorithm for solving a Volterra integro-differential equation. These algorithms are an extension of our previous work, and cater for a kernel of general form. We use an appropriate test equation to study the stability of both algorithms,, numerically deriving stability regions. The region for the implicit method appears to be unbounded, while the explicit has a bounded region close to the origin. We perform a few calculations to demonstrate our results.
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge of the tail of the distribution. Therefore, tools from Extreme Value Theory are usually employed, considering that the tail data follow a Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Using the existing relations from the parameters of the baseline distribution and the limit GPD's parameters, we define highly informative priors that incorporate all the information available for the whole set of observations. We show how to perform Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to estimate VaR and CVaR employing the highly informative priors, in the case of exponential, stable and Gamma distributions. Afterwards, we perform a thorough simulation study to compare the accuracy and precision provided by three different methods. Finally, data from a real example is analyzed to show the practical application of the methods.
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