Scoring function (SF) measures the plausibility of triplets in knowledge graphs. Different scoring functions can lead to huge differences in link prediction performances on different knowledge graphs. In this report, we describe a weird scoring function found by random search on the open graph benchmark (OGB). This scoring function, called AutoWeird, only uses tail entity and relation in a triplet to compute its plausibility score. Experimental results show that AutoWeird achieves top-1 performance on ogbl-wikikg2 data set, but has much worse performance than other methods on ogbl-biokg data set. By analyzing the tail entity distribution and evaluation protocol of these two data sets, we attribute the unexpected success of AutoWeird on ogbl-wikikg2 to inappropriate evaluation and concentrated tail entity distribution. Such results may motivate further research on how to accurately evaluate the performance of different link prediction methods for knowledge graphs.
The use of neural networks has been very successful in a wide variety of applications. However, it has recently been observed that it is difficult to generalize the performance of neural networks under the condition of distributional shift. Several efforts have been made to identify potential out-of-distribution inputs. Although existing literature has made significant progress with regard to images and textual data, finance has been overlooked. The aim of this paper is to investigate the distribution shift in the credit scoring problem, one of the most important applications of finance. For the potential distribution shift problem, we propose a novel two-stage model. Using the out-of-distribution detection method, data is first separated into confident and unconfident sets. As a second step, we utilize the domain knowledge with a mean-variance optimization in order to provide reliable bounds for unconfident samples. Using empirical results, we demonstrate that our model offers reliable predictions for the vast majority of datasets. It is only a small portion of the dataset that is inherently difficult to judge, and we leave them to the judgment of human beings. Based on the two-stage model, highly confident predictions have been made and potential risks associated with the model have been significantly reduced.
Building query graphs from natural language questions is an important step in complex question answering over knowledge graph (Complex KGQA). In general, a question can be correctly answered if its query graph is built correctly and the right answer is then retrieved by issuing the query graph against the KG. Therefore, this paper focuses on query graph generation from natural language questions. Existing approaches for query graph generation ignore the semantic structure of a question, resulting in a large number of noisy query graph candidates that undermine prediction accuracies. In this paper, we define six semantic structures from common questions in KGQA and develop a novel Structure-BERT to predict the semantic structure of a question. By doing so, we can first filter out noisy candidate query graphs, and then rank the remaining candidates with a BERT-based ranking model. Extensive experiments on two popular benchmarks MetaQA and WebQuestionsSP (WSP) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method as compared to state-of-the-arts.
Efficient inference is often possible in a streaming context using Rao-Blackwellized particle filters (RBPFs), which exactly solve inference problems when possible and fall back on sampling approximations when necessary. While RBPFs can be implemented by hand to provide efficient inference, the goal of streaming probabilistic programming is to automatically generate such efficient inference implementations given input probabilistic programs. In this work, we propose semi-symbolic inference, a technique for executing probabilistic programs using a runtime inference system that automatically implements Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering. To perform exact and approximate inference together, the semi-symbolic inference system manipulates symbolic distributions to perform exact inference when possible and falls back on approximate sampling when necessary. This approach enables the system to implement the same RBPF a developer would write by hand. To ensure this, we identify closed families of distributions -- such as linear-Gaussian and finite discrete models -- on which the inference system guarantees exact inference. We have implemented the runtime inference system in the ProbZelus streaming probabilistic programming language. Despite an average $1.6\times$ slowdown compared to the state of the art on existing benchmarks, our evaluation shows that speedups of $3\times$-$87\times$ are obtainable on a new set of challenging benchmarks we have designed to exploit closed families.
The number of Knowledge Graphs (KGs) generated with automatic and manual approaches is constantly growing. For an integrated view and usage, an alignment between these KGs is necessary on the schema as well as instance level. While there are approaches that try to tackle this multi source knowledge graph matching problem, large gold standards are missing to evaluate their effectiveness and scalability. We close this gap by presenting Gollum -- a gold standard for large-scale multi source knowledge graph matching with over 275,000 correspondences between 4,149 different KGs. They originate from knowledge graphs derived by applying the DBpedia extraction framework to a large wiki farm. Three variations of the gold standard are made available: (1) a version with all correspondences for evaluating unsupervised matching approaches, and two versions for evaluating supervised matching: (2) one where each KG is contained both in the train and test set, and (3) one where each KG is exclusively contained in the train or the test set.
Stochastic kriging has been widely employed for simulation metamodeling to predict the response surface of complex simulation models. However, its use is limited to cases where the design space is low-dimensional because, in general, the sample complexity (i.e., the number of design points required for stochastic kriging to produce an accurate prediction) grows exponentially in the dimensionality of the design space. The large sample size results in both a prohibitive sample cost for running the simulation model and a severe computational challenge due to the need to invert large covariance matrices. Based on tensor Markov kernels and sparse grid experimental designs, we develop a novel methodology that dramatically alleviates the curse of dimensionality. We show that the sample complexity of the proposed methodology grows only slightly in the dimensionality, even under model misspecification. We also develop fast algorithms that compute stochastic kriging in its exact form without any approximation schemes. We demonstrate via extensive numerical experiments that our methodology can handle problems with a design space of more than 10,000 dimensions, improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency by orders of magnitude relative to typical alternative methods in practice.
This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website //pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.
Reasoning with knowledge expressed in natural language and Knowledge Bases (KBs) is a major challenge for Artificial Intelligence, with applications in machine reading, dialogue, and question answering. General neural architectures that jointly learn representations and transformations of text are very data-inefficient, and it is hard to analyse their reasoning process. These issues are addressed by end-to-end differentiable reasoning systems such as Neural Theorem Provers (NTPs), although they can only be used with small-scale symbolic KBs. In this paper we first propose Greedy NTPs (GNTPs), an extension to NTPs addressing their complexity and scalability limitations, thus making them applicable to real-world datasets. This result is achieved by dynamically constructing the computation graph of NTPs and including only the most promising proof paths during inference, thus obtaining orders of magnitude more efficient models. Then, we propose a novel approach for jointly reasoning over KBs and textual mentions, by embedding logic facts and natural language sentences in a shared embedding space. We show that GNTPs perform on par with NTPs at a fraction of their cost while achieving competitive link prediction results on large datasets, providing explanations for predictions, and inducing interpretable models. Source code, datasets, and supplementary material are available online at //github.com/uclnlp/gntp.
Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.
In this paper, we propose Latent Relation Language Models (LRLMs), a class of language models that parameterizes the joint distribution over the words in a document and the entities that occur therein via knowledge graph relations. This model has a number of attractive properties: it not only improves language modeling performance, but is also able to annotate the posterior probability of entity spans for a given text through relations. Experiments demonstrate empirical improvements over both a word-based baseline language model and a previous approach that incorporates knowledge graph information. Qualitative analysis further demonstrates the proposed model's ability to learn to predict appropriate relations in context.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.