Automated synthesis of provably correct controllers for cyber-physical systems is crucial for deployment in safety-critical scenarios. However, hybrid features and stochastic or unknown behaviours make this problem challenging. We propose a method for synthesising controllers for Markov jump linear systems (MJLSs), a class of discrete-time models for cyber-physical systems, so that they certifiably satisfy probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) formulae. An MJLS consists of a finite set of stochastic linear dynamics and discrete jumps between these dynamics that are governed by a Markov decision process (MDP). We consider the cases where the transition probabilities of this MDP are either known up to an interval or completely unknown. Our approach is based on a finite-state abstraction that captures both the discrete (mode-jumping) and continuous (stochastic linear) behaviour of the MJLS. We formalise this abstraction as an interval MDP (iMDP) for which we compute intervals of transition probabilities using sampling techniques from the so-called 'scenario approach', resulting in a probabilistically sound approximation. We apply our method to multiple realistic benchmark problems, in particular, a temperature control and an aerial vehicle delivery problem.
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One of the fundamental steps toward understanding a complex system is identifying variation at the scale of the system's components that is most relevant to behavior on a macroscopic scale. Mutual information is a natural means of linking variation across scales of a system due to its independence of the particular functional relationship between variables. However, estimating mutual information given high-dimensional, continuous-valued data is notoriously difficult, and the desideratum -- to reveal important variation in a comprehensible manner -- is only readily achieved through exhaustive search. Here we propose a practical, efficient, and broadly applicable methodology to decompose the information contained in a set of measurements by lossily compressing each measurement with machine learning. Guided by the distributed information bottleneck as a learning objective, the information decomposition sorts variation in the measurements of the system state by relevance to specified macroscale behavior, revealing the most important subsets of measurements for different amounts of predictive information. Additional granularity is achieved by inspection of the learned compression schemes: the variation transmitted during compression is composed of distinctions among measurement values that are most relevant to the macroscale behavior. We focus our analysis on two paradigmatic complex systems: a Boolean circuit and an amorphous material undergoing plastic deformation. In both examples, specific bits of entropy are identified out of the high entropy of the system state as most related to macroscale behavior for insight about the connection between micro- and macro- in the complex system. The identification of meaningful variation in data, with the full generality brought by information theory, is made practical for the study of complex systems.
It is well known that the Euler method for approximating the solutions of a random ordinary differential equation $\mathrm{d}X_t/\mathrm{d}t = f(t, X_t, Y_t)$ driven by a stochastic process $\{Y_t\}_t$ with $\theta$-H\"older sample paths is estimated to be of strong order $\theta$ with respect to the time step, provided $f=f(t, x, y)$ is sufficiently regular and with suitable bounds. Here, it is proved that, in many typical cases, further conditions on the noise can be exploited so that the strong convergence is actually of order 1, regardless of the H\"older regularity of the sample paths. This applies for instance to additive or multiplicative It\^o process noises (such as Wiener, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, and geometric Brownian motion processes); to point-process noises (such as Poisson point processes and Hawkes self-exciting processes, which even have jump-type discontinuities); and to transport-type processes with sample paths of bounded variation. The result is based on a novel approach, estimating the global error as an iterated integral over both large and small mesh scales, and switching the order of integration to move the critical regularity to the large scale. The work is complemented with numerical simulations illustrating the strong order 1 convergence in those cases, and with an example with fractional Brownian motion noise with Hurst parameter $0 < H < 1/2$ for which the order of convergence is $H + 1/2$, hence lower than the attained order 1 in the examples above, but still higher than the order $H$ of convergence expected from previous works.
Prior knowledge and symbolic rules in machine learning are often expressed in the form of label constraints, especially in structured prediction problems. In this work, we compare two common strategies for encoding label constraints in a machine learning pipeline, regularization with constraints and constrained inference, by quantifying their impact on model performance. For regularization, we show that it narrows the generalization gap by precluding models that are inconsistent with the constraints. However, its preference for small violations introduces a bias toward a suboptimal model. For constrained inference, we show that it reduces the population risk by correcting a model's violation, and hence turns the violation into an advantage. Given these differences, we further explore the use of two approaches together and propose conditions for constrained inference to compensate for the bias introduced by regularization, aiming to improve both the model complexity and optimal risk.
Cook and Reckhow 1979 pointed out that NP is not closed under complementation iff there is no propositional proof system that admits polynomial size proofs of all tautologies. Theory of proof complexity generators aims at constructing sets of tautologies hard for strong and possibly for all proof systems. We focus at a conjecture from K.2004 in foundations of the theory that there is a proof complexity generator hard for all proof systems. This can be equivalently formulated (for p-time generators) without a reference to proof complexity notions as follows: * There exist a p-time function $g$ stretching each input by one bit such that its range intersects all infinite NP sets. We consider several facets of this conjecture, including its links to bounded arithmetic (witnessing and independence results), to time-bounded Kolmogorov complexity, to feasible disjunction property of propositional proof systems and to complexity of proof search. We argue that a specific gadget generator from K.2009 is a good candidate for $g$. We define a new hardness property of generators, the $\bigvee$-hardness, and shows that one specific gadget generator is the $\bigvee$-hardest (w.r.t. any sufficiently strong proof system). We define the class of feasibly infinite NP sets and show, assuming a hypothesis from circuit complexity, that the conjecture holds for all feasibly infinite NP sets.
Recent works have explored the fundamental role of depth estimation in multi-view stereo (MVS) and semantic scene completion (SSC). They generally construct 3D cost volumes to explore geometric correspondence in depth, and estimate such volumes in a single step relying directly on the ground truth approximation. However, such problem cannot be thoroughly handled in one step due to complex empirical distributions, especially in challenging regions like occlusions, reflections, etc. In this paper, we formulate the depth estimation task as a multi-step distribution approximation process, and introduce a new paradigm of modeling the Volumetric Probability Distribution progressively (step-by-step) following a Markov chain with Diffusion models (VPDD). Specifically, to constrain the multi-step generation of volume in VPDD, we construct a meta volume guidance and a confidence-aware contextual guidance as conditional geometry priors to facilitate the distribution approximation. For the sampling process, we further investigate an online filtering strategy to maintain consistency in volume representations for stable training. Experiments demonstrate that our plug-and-play VPDD outperforms the state-of-the-arts for tasks of MVS and SSC, and can also be easily extended to different baselines to get improvement. It is worth mentioning that we are the first camera-based work that surpasses LiDAR-based methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset.
Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.
Time-series datasets are central in numerous fields of science and engineering, such as biomedicine, Earth observation, and network analysis. Extensive research exists on state-space models (SSMs), which are powerful mathematical tools that allow for probabilistic and interpretable learning on time series. Estimating the model parameters in SSMs is arguably one of the most complicated tasks, and the inclusion of prior knowledge is known to both ease the interpretation but also to complicate the inferential tasks. Very recent works have attempted to incorporate a graphical perspective on some of those model parameters, but they present notable limitations that this work addresses. More generally, existing graphical modeling tools are designed to incorporate either static information, focusing on statistical dependencies among independent random variables (e.g., graphical Lasso approach), or dynamic information, emphasizing causal relationships among time series samples (e.g., graphical Granger approaches). However, there are no joint approaches combining static and dynamic graphical modeling within the context of SSMs. This work proposes a novel approach to fill this gap by introducing a joint graphical modeling framework that bridges the static graphical Lasso model and a causal-based graphical approach for the linear-Gaussian SSM. We present DGLASSO (Dynamic Graphical Lasso), a new inference method within this framework that implements an efficient block alternating majorization-minimization algorithm. The algorithm's convergence is established by departing from modern tools from nonlinear analysis. Experimental validation on synthetic and real weather variability data showcases the effectiveness of the proposed model and inference algorithm.
Transition amplitudes and transition probabilities are relevant to many areas of physics simulation, including the calculation of response properties and correlation functions. These quantities can also be related to solving linear systems of equations. Here we present three related algorithms for calculating transition probabilities. First, we extend a previously published short-depth algorithm, allowing for the two input states to be non-orthogonal. Building on this first procedure, we then derive a higher-depth algorithm based on Trotterization and Richardson extrapolation that requires fewer circuit evaluations. Third, we introduce a tunable algorithm that allows for trading off circuit depth and measurement complexity, yielding an algorithm that can be tailored to specific hardware characteristics. Finally, we implement proof-of-principle numerics for models in physics and chemistry and for a subroutine in variational quantum linear solving (VQLS). The primary benefits of our approaches are that (a) arbitrary non-orthogonal states may now be used with small increases in quantum resources, (b) we (like another recently proposed method) entirely avoid subroutines such as the Hadamard test that may require three-qubit gates to be decomposed, and (c) in some cases fewer quantum circuit evaluations are required as compared to the previous state-of-the-art in NISQ algorithms for transition probabilities.
Gaussian variational inference and the Laplace approximation are popular alternatives to Markov chain Monte Carlo that formulate Bayesian posterior inference as an optimization problem, enabling the use of simple and scalable stochastic optimization algorithms. However, a key limitation of both methods is that the solution to the optimization problem is typically not tractable to compute; even in simple settings the problem is nonconvex. Thus, recently developed statistical guarantees -- which all involve the (data) asymptotic properties of the global optimum -- are not reliably obtained in practice. In this work, we provide two major contributions: a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic convexity properties of variational inference with a Gaussian family and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem required by the Laplace approximation; and two algorithms -- consistent Laplace approximation (CLA) and consistent stochastic variational inference (CSVI) -- that exploit these properties to find the optimal approximation in the asymptotic regime. Both CLA and CSVI involve a tractable initialization procedure that finds the local basin of the optimum, and CSVI further includes a scaled gradient descent algorithm that provably stays locally confined to that basin. Experiments on nonconvex synthetic and real-data examples show that compared with standard variational and Laplace approximations, both CSVI and CLA improve the likelihood of obtaining the global optimum of their respective optimization problems.
Many food products involve mixtures of ingredients, where the mixtures can be expressed as combinations of ingredient proportions. In many cases, the quality and the consumer preference may also depend on the way in which the mixtures are processed. The processing is generally defined by the settings of one or more process variables. Experimental designs studying the joint impact of the mixture ingredient proportions and the settings of the process variables are called mixture-process variable experiments. In this article, we show how to combine mixture-process variable experiments and discrete choice experiments, to quantify and model consumer preferences for food products that can be viewed as processed mixtures. First, we describe the modeling of data from such combined experiments. Next, we describe how to generate D- and I-optimal designs for choice experiments involving mixtures and process variables, and we compare the two kinds of designs using two examples.
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