The COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has become a major global threat to human health and well-being. Thus, the development of computer-aided detection (CAD) systems that are capable to accurately distinguish COVID-19 from other diseases using chest computed tomography (CT) and X-ray data is of immediate priority. Such automatic systems are usually based on traditional machine learning or deep learning methods. Differently from most of existing studies, which used either CT scan or X-ray images in COVID-19-case classification, we present a simple but efficient deep learning feature fusion model, called UncertaintyFuseNet, which is able to classify accurately large datasets of both of these types of images. We argue that the uncertainty of the model's predictions should be taken into account in the learning process, even though most of existing studies have overlooked it. We quantify the prediction uncertainty in our feature fusion model using effective Ensemble MC Dropout (EMCD) technique. A comprehensive simulation study has been conducted to compare the results of our new model to the existing approaches, evaluating the performance of competing models in terms of Precision, Recall, F-Measure, Accuracy and ROC curves. The obtained results prove the efficiency of our model which provided the prediction accuracy of 99.08\% and 96.35\% for the considered CT scan and X-ray datasets, respectively. Moreover, our UncertaintyFuseNet model was generally robust to noise and performed well with previously unseen data. The source code of our implementation is freely available at: //github.com/moloud1987/UncertaintyFuseNet-for-COVID-19-Classification.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Epistemic uncertainty is the part of out-of-sample prediction error due to the lack of knowledge of the learner. Whereas previous work was focusing on model variance, we propose a principled approach for directly estimating epistemic uncertainty by learning to predict generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. This estimator of epistemic uncertainty includes the effect of model bias (or misspecification) and is useful in interactive learning environments arising in active learning or reinforcement learning. In addition to discussing these properties of Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP), we illustrate its advantage against existing methods for uncertainty estimation on downstream tasks including sequential model optimization and reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic classification of images and for estimating uncertainty about synergistic drug combinations.
A rising number of botnet families have been successfully detected using deep learning architectures. While the variety of attacks increases, these architectures should become more robust against attacks. They have been proven to be very sensitive to small but well constructed perturbations in the input. Botnet detection requires extremely low false-positive rates (FPR), which are not commonly attainable in contemporary deep learning. Attackers try to increase the FPRs by making poisoned samples. The majority of recent research has focused on the use of model loss functions to build adversarial examples and robust models. In this paper, two LSTM-based classification algorithms for botnet classification with an accuracy higher than 98\% are presented. Then, the adversarial attack is proposed, which reduces the accuracy to about30\%. Then, by examining the methods for computing the uncertainty, the defense method is proposed to increase the accuracy to about 70\%. By using the deep ensemble and stochastic weight averaging quantification methods it has been investigated the uncertainty of the accuracy in the proposed methods.
Methodology and optimization algorithms for sparse regression are extended to multi-model regression ensembles. In particular, we adapt optimization algorithms for l0-penalized problems to learn ensembles of sparse and diverse models. To generate an initial solution for our algorithm, we generalize forward stepwise regression to multi-model regression ensembles. The sparse and diverse models are learned jointly from the data and constitute alternative explanations for the relationship between the predictors and the response variable. Beyond the advantage of interpretability, in prediction tasks the ensembles are shown to outperform state-of-the-art competitors on both simulated and gene expression data. We study the effect of the number of models and show how the ensembles achieve excellent prediction accuracy by exploiting the accuracy-diversity tradeoff of ensembles. The optimization algorithms are implemented in publicly available R/C++ software packages.
Active learning is a promising alternative to alleviate the issue of high annotation cost in the computer vision tasks by consciously selecting more informative samples to label. Active learning for object detection is more challenging and existing efforts on it are relatively rare. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid approach to address this problem, where the instance-level uncertainty and diversity are jointly considered in a bottom-up manner. To balance the computational complexity, the proposed approach is designed as a two-stage procedure. At the first stage, an Entropy-based Non-Maximum Suppression (ENMS) is presented to estimate the uncertainty of every image, which performs NMS according to the entropy in the feature space to remove predictions with redundant information gains. At the second stage, a diverse prototype (DivProto) strategy is explored to ensure the diversity across images by progressively converting it into the intra-class and inter-class diversities of the entropy-based class-specific prototypes. Extensive experiments are conducted on MS COCO and Pascal VOC, and the proposed approach achieves state of the art results and significantly outperforms the other counterparts, highlighting its superiority.
We suggested a unified system with core components of data augmentation, ImageNet-pretrained ResNet-50, cost-sensitive loss, deep ensemble learning, and uncertainty estimation to quickly and consistently detect COVID-19 using acoustic evidence. To increase the model's capacity to identify a minority class, data augmentation and cost-sensitive loss are incorporated (infected samples). In the COVID-19 detection challenge, ImageNet-pretrained ResNet-50 has been found to be effective. The unified framework also integrates deep ensemble learning and uncertainty estimation to integrate predictions from various base classifiers for generalisation and reliability. We ran a series of tests using the DiCOVA2021 challenge dataset to assess the efficacy of our proposed method, and the results show that our method has an AUC-ROC of 85.43 percent, making it a promising method for COVID-19 detection. The unified framework also demonstrates that audio may be used to quickly diagnose different respiratory disorders.
The increase and rapid growth of data produced by scientific instruments, the Internet of Things (IoT), and social media is causing data transfer performance and resource consumption to garner much attention in the research community. The network infrastructure and end systems that enable this extensive data movement use a substantial amount of electricity, measured in terawatt-hours per year. Managing energy consumption within the core networking infrastructure is an active research area, but there is a limited amount of work on reducing power consumption at the end systems during active data transfers. This paper presents a novel two-phase dynamic throughput and energy optimization model that utilizes an offline decision-search-tree based clustering technique to encapsulate and categorize historical data transfer log information and an online search optimization algorithm to find the best application and kernel layer parameter combination to maximize the achieved data transfer throughput while minimizing the energy consumption. Our model also incorporates an ensemble method to reduce aleatoric uncertainty in finding optimal application and kernel layer parameters during the offline analysis phase. The experimental evaluation results show that our decision-tree based model outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions in this area by achieving 117% higher throughput on average and also consuming 19% less energy at the end systems during active data transfers.
We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates model uncertainty and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods and neural network). In particular, for a learned nonlinear model $f(\mathbf{x})$, we consider quantifying the importance of an input variable $\mathbf{x}^j$ using the integrated gradient measure $\psi_j = \Vert \frac{\partial}{\partial \mathbf{x}^j} f(\mathbf{x})\Vert^2_2$. We then (1) provide a principled approach for quantifying variable selection uncertainty by deriving its posterior distribution, and (2) show that the approach is generalizable even to non-differentiable models such as tree ensembles. Rigorous Bayesian nonparametric theorems are derived to guarantee the posterior consistency and asymptotic uncertainty of the proposed approach. Extensive simulation confirms that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing classic and recent variable selection methods.
Imposing consistency through proxy tasks has been shown to enhance data-driven learning and enable self-supervision in various tasks. This paper introduces novel and effective consistency strategies for optical flow estimation, a problem where labels from real-world data are very challenging to derive. More specifically, we propose occlusion consistency and zero forcing in the forms of self-supervised learning and transformation consistency in the form of semi-supervised learning. We apply these consistency techniques in a way that the network model learns to describe pixel-level motions better while requiring no additional annotations. We demonstrate that our consistency strategies applied to a strong baseline network model using the original datasets and labels provide further improvements, attaining the state-of-the-art results on the KITTI-2015 scene flow benchmark in the non-stereo category. Our method achieves the best foreground accuracy (4.33% in Fl-all) over both the stereo and non-stereo categories, even though using only monocular image inputs.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
The time and effort involved in hand-designing deep neural networks is immense. This has prompted the development of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) techniques to automate this design. However, NAS algorithms tend to be slow and expensive; they need to train vast numbers of candidate networks to inform the search process. This could be alleviated if we could partially predict a network's trained accuracy from its initial state. In this work, we examine the overlap of activations between datapoints in untrained networks and motivate how this can give a measure which is usefully indicative of a network's trained performance. We incorporate this measure into a simple algorithm that allows us to search for powerful networks without any training in a matter of seconds on a single GPU, and verify its effectiveness on NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-201, NATS-Bench, and Network Design Spaces. Our approach can be readily combined with more expensive search methods; we examine a simple adaptation of regularised evolutionary search. Code for reproducing our experiments is available at //github.com/BayesWatch/nas-without-training.
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