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In survival analysis, complex machine learning algorithms have been increasingly used for predictive modeling. Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. In particular, in HIV vaccine trials, participant baseline characteristics are used to predict the probability of infection over the intended follow-up period, and investigators may wish to understand how much certain types of predictors, such as behavioral factors, contribute toward overall predictiveness. Time-to-event outcomes such as time to infection are often subject to right censoring, and existing methods for assessing variable importance are typically not intended to be used in this setting. We describe a broad class of algorithm-agnostic variable importance measures for prediction in the context of survival data. We propose a nonparametric efficient estimation procedure that incorporates flexible learning of nuisance parameters, yields asymptotically valid inference, and enjoys double-robustness. We assess the performance of our proposed procedure via numerical simulations and analyze data from the HVTN 702 study to inform enrollment strategies for future HIV vaccine trials.

In several branches of the social sciences and humanities, surveys based on standardized questionnaires are a prominent research tool. While there are a variety of ways to analyze the data, some standard procedures have become established. When those surveys want to analyze differences in the answer patterns of different groups (e.g., countries, gender, age, ...), these procedures can only be carried out in a meaningful way if there is measurement invariance, i.e., the measured construct has psychometric equivalence across groups. As recently raised as an open problem by Sauerwein et al. (2021), new evaluation methods that work in the absence of measurement invariance are needed. This paper promotes an unsupervised learning-based approach to such research data by proposing a procedure that works in three phases: data preparation, clustering of questionnaires, and measuring similarity based on the obtained clustering and the properties of each group. We generate synthetic data in three data sets, which allows us to compare our approach with the PCA approach under measurement invariance and under violated measurement invariance. As a main result, we obtain that the approach provides a natural comparison between groups and a natural description of the response patterns of the groups. Moreover, it can be safely applied to a wide variety of data sets, even in the absence of measurement invariance. Finally, this approach allows us to translate (violations of) measurement invariance into a meaningful measure of similarity.

This study elaborates a text-based metric to quantify the unique position of stylized scientific research, characterized by its innovative integration of diverse knowledge components and potential to pivot established scientific paradigms. Our analysis reveals a concerning decline in stylized research, highlighted by its comparative undervaluation in terms of citation counts and protracted peer-review duration. Despite facing these challenges, the disruptive potential of stylized research remains robust, consistently introducing groundbreaking questions and theories. This paper posits that substantive reforms are necessary to incentivize and recognize the value of stylized research, including optimizations to the peer-review process and the criteria for evaluating scientific impact. Embracing these changes may be imperative to halt the downturn in stylized research and ensure enduring scholarly exploration in endless frontiers.

Deep learning methods are emerging as popular computational tools for solving forward and inverse problems in traffic flow. In this paper, we study a neural operator framework for learning solutions to nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations with applications in macroscopic traffic flow models. In this framework, an operator is trained to map heterogeneous and sparse traffic input data to the complete macroscopic traffic state in a supervised learning setting. We chose a physics-informed Fourier neural operator ($\pi$-FNO) as the operator, where an additional physics loss based on a discrete conservation law regularizes the problem during training to improve the shock predictions. We also propose to use training data generated from random piecewise constant input data to systematically capture the shock and rarefied solutions. From experiments using the LWR traffic flow model, we found superior accuracy in predicting the density dynamics of a ring-road network and urban signalized road. We also found that the operator can be trained using simple traffic density dynamics, e.g., consisting of $2-3$ vehicle queues and $1-2$ traffic signal cycles, and it can predict density dynamics for heterogeneous vehicle queue distributions and multiple traffic signal cycles $(\geq 2)$ with an acceptable error. The extrapolation error grew sub-linearly with input complexity for a proper choice of the model architecture and training data. Adding a physics regularizer aided in learning long-term traffic density dynamics, especially for problems with periodic boundary data.

We introduce a general framework for active learning in regression problems. Our framework extends the standard setup by allowing for general types of data, rather than merely pointwise samples of the target function. This generalization covers many cases of practical interest, such as data acquired in transform domains (e.g., Fourier data), vector-valued data (e.g., gradient-augmented data), data acquired along continuous curves, and, multimodal data (i.e., combinations of different types of measurements). Our framework considers random sampling according to a finite number of sampling measures and arbitrary nonlinear approximation spaces (model classes). We introduce the concept of generalized Christoffel functions and show how these can be used to optimize the sampling measures. We prove that this leads to near-optimal sample complexity in various important cases. This paper focuses on applications in scientific computing, where active learning is often desirable, since it is usually expensive to generate data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework for gradient-augmented learning with polynomials, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) using generative models and adaptive sampling for solving PDEs using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs).

We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.

When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.