Neural processes (NPs) have brought the representation power of parametric deep neural networks and the reliable uncertainty estimation of non-parametric Gaussian processes together. Although recent development of NPs has shown success in both regression and classification, how to adapt NPs to multimodal data has not be carefully studied. For the first time, we propose a new model of NP family for multimodal uncertainty estimation, namely Multimodal Neural Processes. In a holistic and principled way, we develop a dynamic context memory updated by the classification error, a multimodal Bayesian aggregation mechanism to aggregate multimodal representations, and a new attention mechanism for calibrated predictions. In extensive empirical evaluation, our method achieves the state-of-the-art multimodal uncertainty estimation performance, showing its appealing ability of being robust against noisy samples and reliable in out-of-domain detection.
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Neural collapse (NC) refers to the surprising structure of the last layer of deep neural networks in the terminal phase of gradient descent training. Recently, an increasing amount of experimental evidence has pointed to the propagation of NC to earlier layers of neural networks. However, while the NC in the last layer is well studied theoretically, much less is known about its multi-layered counterpart - deep neural collapse (DNC). In particular, existing work focuses either on linear layers or only on the last two layers at the price of an extra assumption. Our paper fills this gap by generalizing the established analytical framework for NC - the unconstrained features model - to multiple non-linear layers. Our key technical contribution is to show that, in a deep unconstrained features model, the unique global optimum for binary classification exhibits all the properties typical of DNC. This explains the existing experimental evidence of DNC. We also empirically show that (i) by optimizing deep unconstrained features models via gradient descent, the resulting solution agrees well with our theory, and (ii) trained networks recover the unconstrained features suitable for the occurrence of DNC, thus supporting the validity of this modeling principle.
Word sense disambiguation (WSD), which aims to determine an appropriate sense for a target word given its context, is crucial for natural language understanding. Existing supervised methods treat WSD as a classification task and have achieved remarkable performance. However, they ignore uncertainty estimation (UE) in the real-world setting, where the data is always noisy and out of distribution. This paper extensively studies UE on the benchmark designed for WSD. Specifically, we first compare four uncertainty scores for a state-of-the-art WSD model and verify that the conventional predictive probabilities obtained at the end of the model are inadequate to quantify uncertainty. Then, we examine the capability of capturing data and model uncertainties by the model with the selected UE score on well-designed test scenarios and discover that the model reflects data uncertainty satisfactorily but underestimates model uncertainty. Furthermore, we explore numerous lexical properties that intrinsically affect data uncertainty and provide a detailed analysis of four critical aspects: the syntactic category, morphology, sense granularity, and semantic relations.
Uncertainty estimation is critical for numerous applications of deep neural networks and draws growing attention from researchers. Here, we demonstrate an uncertainty quantification approach for deep neural networks used in inverse problems based on cycle consistency. We build forward-backward cycles using the physical forward model available and a trained deep neural network solving the inverse problem at hand, and accordingly derive uncertainty estimators through regression analysis on the consistency of these forward-backward cycles. We theoretically analyze cycle consistency metrics and derive their relationship with respect to uncertainty, bias, and robustness of the neural network inference. To demonstrate the effectiveness of these cycle consistency-based uncertainty estimators, we classified corrupted and out-of-distribution input image data using some of the widely used image deblurring and super-resolution neural networks as testbeds. The blind testing of our method outperformed other models in identifying unseen input data corruption and distribution shifts. This work provides a simple-to-implement and rapid uncertainty quantification method that can be universally applied to various neural networks used for solving inverse problems.
Conventional Gaussian process regression exclusively assumes the existence of noise in the output data of model observations. In many scientific and engineering applications, however, the input locations of observational data may also be compromised with uncertainties owing to modeling assumptions, measurement errors, etc. In this work, we propose a Bayesian method that integrates the variability of input data into Gaussian process regression. Considering two types of observables -- noise-corrupted outputs with fixed inputs and those with prior-distribution-defined uncertain inputs, a posterior distribution is estimated via a Bayesian framework to infer the uncertain data locations. Thereafter, such quantified uncertainties of inputs are incorporated into Gaussian process predictions by means of marginalization. The effectiveness of this new regression technique is demonstrated through several numerical examples, in which a consistently good performance of generalization is observed, while a substantial reduction in the predictive uncertainties is achieved by the Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs.
The study of robustness has received much attention due to its inevitability in data-driven settings where many systems face uncertainty. One such example of concern is Bayesian Optimization (BO), where uncertainty is multi-faceted, yet there only exists a limited number of works dedicated to this direction. In particular, there is the work of Kirschner et al. (2020), which bridges the existing literature of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) by casting the BO problem from the lens of DRO. While this work is pioneering, it admittedly suffers from various practical shortcomings such as finite contexts assumptions, leaving behind the main question Can one devise a computationally tractable algorithm for solving this DRO-BO problem? In this work, we tackle this question to a large degree of generality by considering robustness against data-shift in $\phi$-divergences, which subsumes many popular choices, such as the $\chi^2$-divergence, Total Variation, and the extant Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that the DRO-BO problem in this setting is equivalent to a finite-dimensional optimization problem which, even in the continuous context setting, can be easily implemented with provable sublinear regret bounds. We then show experimentally that our method surpasses existing methods, attesting to the theoretical results.
An in-depth understanding of uncertainty is the first step to making effective decisions under uncertainty. Deep/machine learning (ML/DL) has been hugely leveraged to solve complex problems involved with processing high-dimensional data. However, reasoning and quantifying different types of uncertainties to achieve effective decision-making have been much less explored in ML/DL than in other Artificial Intelligence (AI) domains. In particular, belief/evidence theories have been studied in KRR since the 1960s to reason and measure uncertainties to enhance decision-making effectiveness. We found that only a few studies have leveraged the mature uncertainty research in belief/evidence theories in ML/DL to tackle complex problems under different types of uncertainty. In this survey paper, we discuss several popular belief theories and their core ideas dealing with uncertainty causes and types and quantifying them, along with the discussions of their applicability in ML/DL. In addition, we discuss three main approaches that leverage belief theories in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), including Evidential DNNs, Fuzzy DNNs, and Rough DNNs, in terms of their uncertainty causes, types, and quantification methods along with their applicability in diverse problem domains. Based on our in-depth survey, we discuss insights, lessons learned, limitations of the current state-of-the-art bridging belief theories and ML/DL, and finally, future research directions.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.
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