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Selection of covariates is crucial in the estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high or even ultra-high dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume sparse linear models for both outcome and univariate treatment, and cannot handle situations with ultra-high dimensional covariates. In this paper, we propose a new covariate selection strategy called double screening prior adaptive lasso (DSPAL) to select confounders and predictors of the outcome for multivariate treatments, which combines the adaptive lasso method with the marginal conditional (in)dependence prior information to select target covariates, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency. The distinctive features of our proposal are that it can be applied to high-dimensional or even ultra-high dimensional covariates for multivariate treatments, and can deal with the cases of both parametric and nonparametric outcome models, which makes it more robust compared to other methods. Our theoretical analyses show that the proposed procedure enjoys the sure screening property, the ranking consistency property and the variable selection consistency. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed approach selects all confounders and predictors consistently and estimates the multivariate treatment effects with smaller bias and mean squared error compared to several alternatives under various scenarios. In real data analysis, the method is applied to estimate the causal effect of a three-dimensional continuous environmental treatment on cholesterol level and enlightening results are obtained.

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: 1) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; 2) Updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and 3) Covariance kernels typically enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit infinite mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for online, distributed inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the presence of non-stationarity in time-series data. To demonstrate the utility of our proposed online Gaussian process mixture-of-experts approach in applied settings, we show that we can sucessfully implement an optimization algorithm using online Gaussian process bandits.

Score matching is an estimation procedure that has been developed for statistical models whose probability density function is known up to proportionality but whose normalizing constant is intractable. For such models, maximum likelihood estimation will be difficult or impossible to implement. To date, nearly all applications of score matching have focused on continuous IID (independent and identically distributed) models. Motivated by various data modelling problems for which the continuity assumption and/or the IID assumption are not appropriate, this article proposes three novel extensions of score matching: (i) to univariate and multivariate ordinal data (including count data); (ii) to INID (independent but not necessarily identically distributed) data models, including regression models with either a continuous or a discrete ordinal response; and (iii) to a class of dependent data models known as auto models. Under the INID assumption, a unified asymptotic approach to settings (i) and (ii) is developed and, under mild regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed score matching estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. These theoretical results provide a sound basis for score-matching-based inference and are supported by strong performance in simulation studies and a real data example involving doctoral publication data. Regarding (iii), motivated by a spatial geochemical dataset, we develop a novel auto model for spatially dependent spherical data and propose a score-matching-based Wald statistic to test for the presence of spatial dependence. Our proposed auto model exhibits a way to model spatial dependence of directions, is computationally convenient to use and is expected to be superior to composite likelihood approaches for reasons that are explained.

Deep neural networks are becoming increasingly popular in approximating arbitrary functions from noisy data. But wider adoption is being hindered by the need to explain such models and to impose additional constraints on them. Monotonicity constraint is one of the most requested properties in real-world scenarios and is the focus of this paper. One of the oldest ways to construct a monotonic fully connected neural network is to constrain its weights to be non-negative while employing a monotonic activation function. Unfortunately, this construction does not work with popular non-saturated activation functions such as ReLU, ELU, SELU etc, as it can only approximate convex functions. We show this shortcoming can be fixed by employing the original activation function for a part of the neurons in the layer, and employing its point reflection for the other part. Our experiments show this approach of building monotonic deep neural networks have matching or better accuracy when compared to other state-of-the-art methods such as deep lattice networks or monotonic networks obtained by heuristic regularization. This method is the simplest one in the sense of having the least number of parameters, not requiring any modifications to the learning procedure or steps post-learning steps.

The introduction of the European Union's (EU) set of comprehensive regulations relating to technology, the General Data Protection Regulation, grants EU citizens the right to explanations for automated decisions that have significant effects on their life. This poses a substantial challenge, as many of today's state-of-the-art algorithms are generally unexplainable black boxes. Simultaneously, we have seen an emergence of the fields of quantum computation and quantum AI. Due to the fickle nature of quantum information, the problem of explainability is amplified, as measuring a quantum system destroys the information. As a result, there is a need for post-hoc explanations for quantum AI algorithms. In the classical context, the cooperative game theory concept of the Shapley value has been adapted for post-hoc explanations. However, this approach does not translate to use in quantum computing trivially and can be exponentially difficult to implement if not handled with care. We propose a novel algorithm which reduces the problem of accurately estimating the Shapley values of a quantum algorithm into a far simpler problem of estimating the true average of a binomial distribution in polynomial time.

Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) is a popular method for flexibly estimating models that may have complex relationships between variables. However, its usefulness to many researchers is limited for two reasons. First, existing approaches are inflexible and do not allow KRLS to be combined with theoretically-motivated extensions such as random effects, unregularized fixed effects, or non-Gaussian outcomes. Second, estimation is extremely computationally intensive for even modestly sized datasets. Our paper addresses both concerns by introducing generalized KRLS (gKRLS). We note that KRLS can be re-formulated as a hierarchical model thereby allowing easy inference and modular model construction where KRLS can be used alongside random effects, splines, and unregularized fixed effects. Computationally, we also implement random sketching to dramatically accelerate estimation while incurring a limited penalty in estimation quality. We demonstrate that gKRLS can be fit on datasets with tens of thousands of observations in under one minute. Further, state-of-the-art techniques that require fitting the model over a dozen times (e.g. meta-learners) can be estimated quickly.

When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some model-derived marginal quantity, rather than directly pertaining to the natural parameters in our model. We propose a method for translating available prior information, in the form of an elicited distribution for the observable or model-derived marginal quantity, into an informative joint prior. Our approach proceeds given a parametric class of prior distributions with as yet undetermined hyperparameters, and minimises the difference between the supplied elicited distribution and corresponding prior predictive distribution. We employ a global, multi-stage Bayesian optimisation procedure to locate optimal values for the hyperparameters. Three examples illustrate our approach: a nonlinear regression model; a setting in which prior information pertains to $R^{2}$ -- a model-derived quantity; and a cure-fraction survival model, where censoring implies that the observable quantity is a priori a mixed discrete/continuous quantity.

Dependence is undoubtedly a central concept in statistics. Though, it proves difficult to locate in the literature a formal definition which goes beyond the self-evident 'dependence = non-independence'. This absence has allowed the term 'dependence' and its declination to be used vaguely and indiscriminately for qualifying a variety of disparate notions, leading to numerous incongruities. For example, the classical Pearson's, Spearman's or Kendall's correlations are widely regarded as 'dependence measures' of major interest, in spite of returning 0 in some cases of deterministic relationships between the variables at play, evidently not measuring dependence at all. Arguing that research on such a fundamental topic would benefit from a slightly more rigid framework, this paper suggests a general definition of the dependence between two random variables defined on the same probability space. Natural enough for aligning with intuition, that definition is still sufficiently precise for allowing unequivocal identification of a 'universal' representation of the dependence structure of any bivariate distribution. Links between this representation and familiar concepts are highlighted, and ultimately, the idea of a dependence measure based on that universal representation is explored and shown to satisfy Renyi's postulates.

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and extendability. The conditional quantile function is modeled by a mixture (weighted sum) of basis quantile functions, with the weights depending on factors. The calibration problem is formulated as a convex optimization problem. It can be viewed as conducting quantile regressions for all confidence levels simultaneously while avoiding quantile crossing by definition. The calibration problem is equivalent to minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Based on the canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition of tensors, we propose a dimensionality reduction method that reduces the rank of the parameter tensor and propose an alternating algorithm for estimation. Additionally, based on Risk Quadrangle framework, we generalize the approach to conditional distributions defined by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), expectile and other functions of uncertainty measures. Although this paper focuses on using splines as the weight functions, it can be extended to neural networks. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.