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The conditional survival function of a time-to-event outcome subject to censoring and truncation is a common target of estimation in survival analysis. This parameter may be of scientific interest and also often appears as a nuisance in nonparametric and semiparametric problems. In addition to classical parametric and semiparametric methods (e.g., based on the Cox proportional hazards model), flexible machine learning approaches have been developed to estimate the conditional survival function. However, many of these methods are either implicitly or explicitly targeted toward risk stratification rather than overall survival function estimation. Others apply only to discrete-time settings or require inverse probability of censoring weights, which can be as difficult to estimate as the outcome survival function itself. Here, we employ a decomposition of the conditional survival function in terms of observable regression models in which censoring and truncation play no role. This allows application of an array of flexible regression and classification methods rather than only approaches that explicitly handle the complexities inherent to survival data. We outline estimation procedures based on this decomposition, empirically assess their performance, and demonstrate their use on data from an HIV vaccine trial.

Core-periphery detection aims to separate the nodes of a complex network into two subsets: a core that is densely connected to the entire network and a periphery that is densely connected to the core but sparsely connected internally. The definition of core-periphery structure in multiplex networks that record different types of interactions between the same set of nodes but on different layers is nontrivial since a node may belong to the core in some layers and to the periphery in others. The current state-of-the-art approach relies on linear combinations of individual layer degree vectors whose layer weights need to be chosen a-priori. We propose a nonlinear spectral method for multiplex networks that simultaneously optimizes a node and a layer coreness vector by maximizing a suitable nonconvex homogeneous objective function by an alternating fixed point iteration. We prove global optimality and convergence guarantees for admissible hyper-parameter choices and convergence to local optima for the remaining cases. We derive a quantitative measure for the quality of a given multiplex core-periphery structure that allows the determination of the optimal core size. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world networks illustrate that our approach is robust against noisy layers and outperforms baseline methods with respect to a variety of core-periphery quality measures. In particular, all methods based on layer aggregation are improved when used in combination with the novel optimized layer coreness vector weights. As the runtime of our method depends linearly on the number of edges of the network it is scalable to large-scale multiplex networks.

Estimating quantiles of an outcome conditional on covariates is of fundamental interest in statistics with broad application in probabilistic prediction and forecasting. We propose an ensemble method for conditional quantile estimation, Quantile Super Learning, that combines predictions from multiple candidate algorithms based on their empirical performance measured with respect to a cross-validated empirical risk of the quantile loss function. We present theoretical guarantees for both iid and online data scenarios. The performance of our approach for quantile estimation and in forming prediction intervals is tested in simulation studies. Two case studies related to solar energy are used to illustrate Quantile Super Learning: in an iid setting, we predict the physical properties of perovskite materials for photovoltaic cells, and in an online setting we forecast ground solar irradiance based on output from dynamic weather ensemble models.

Latent variable models (LVMs) are commonly used to capture the underlying dependencies, patterns, and hidden structure in observed data. Source duplication is a by-product of the data hankelisation pre-processing step common to single channel LVM applications, which hinders practical LVM utilisation. In this article, a Python package titled spectrally-regularised-LVMs is presented. The proposed package addresses the source duplication issue via the addition of a novel spectral regularisation term. This package provides a framework for spectral regularisation in single channel LVM applications, thereby making it easier to investigate and utilise LVMs with spectral regularisation. This is achieved via the use of symbolic or explicit representations of potential LVM objective functions which are incorporated into a framework that uses spectral regularisation during the LVM parameter estimation process. The objective of this package is to provide a consistent linear LVM optimisation framework which incorporates spectral regularisation and caters to single channel time-series applications.

For multi-scale problems, the conventional physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) face some challenges in obtaining available predictions. In this paper, based on PINNs, we propose a practical deep learning framework for multi-scale problems by reconstructing the loss function and associating it with special neural network architectures. New PINN methods derived from the improved PINN framework differ from the conventional PINN method mainly in two aspects. First, the new methods use a novel loss function by modifying the standard loss function through a (grouping) regularization strategy. The regularization strategy implements a different power operation on each loss term so that all loss terms composing the loss function are of approximately the same order of magnitude, which makes all loss terms be optimized synchronously during the optimization process. Second, for the multi-frequency or high-frequency problems, in addition to using the modified loss function, new methods upgrade the neural network architecture from the common fully-connected neural network to special network architectures such as the Fourier feature architecture, and the integrated architecture developed by us. The combination of the above two techniques leads to a significant improvement in the computational accuracy of multi-scale problems. Several challenging numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The proposed methods not only significantly outperform the conventional PINN method in terms of computational efficiency and computational accuracy, but also compare favorably with the state-of-the-art methods in the recent literature. The improved PINN framework facilitates better application of PINNs to multi-scale problems.

Computer model calibration involves using partial and imperfect observations of the real world to learn which values of a model's input parameters lead to outputs that are consistent with real-world observations. When calibrating models with high-dimensional output (e.g. a spatial field), it is common to represent the output as a linear combination of a small set of basis vectors. Often, when trying to calibrate to such output, what is important to the credibility of the model is that key emergent physical phenomena are represented, even if not faithfully or in the right place. In these cases, comparison of model output and data in a linear subspace is inappropriate and will usually lead to poor model calibration. To overcome this, we present kernel-based history matching (KHM), generalising the meaning of the technique sufficiently to be able to project model outputs and observations into a higher-dimensional feature space, where patterns can be compared without their location necessarily being fixed. We develop the technical methodology, present an expert-driven kernel selection algorithm, and then apply the techniques to the calibration of boundary layer clouds for the French climate model IPSL-CM.

Since their initial introduction, score-based diffusion models (SDMs) have been successfully applied to solve a variety of linear inverse problems in finite-dimensional vector spaces due to their ability to efficiently approximate the posterior distribution. However, using SDMs for inverse problems in infinite-dimensional function spaces has only been addressed recently, primarily through methods that learn the unconditional score. While this approach is advantageous for some inverse problems, it is mostly heuristic and involves numerous computationally costly forward operator evaluations during posterior sampling. To address these limitations, we propose a theoretically grounded method for sampling from the posterior of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems based on amortized conditional SDMs. In particular, we prove that one of the most successful approaches for estimating the conditional score in finite dimensions - the conditional denoising estimator - can also be applied in infinite dimensions. A significant part of our analysis is dedicated to demonstrating that extending infinite-dimensional SDMs to the conditional setting requires careful consideration, as the conditional score typically blows up for small times, contrarily to the unconditional score. We conclude by presenting stylized and large-scale numerical examples that validate our approach, offer additional insights, and demonstrate that our method enables large-scale, discretization-invariant Bayesian inference.

In an era where scientific experiments can be very costly, multi-fidelity emulators provide a useful tool for cost-efficient predictive scientific computing. For scientific applications, the experimenter is often limited by a tight computational budget, and thus wishes to (i) maximize predictive power of the multi-fidelity emulator via a careful design of experiments, and (ii) ensure this model achieves a desired error tolerance with some notion of confidence. Existing design methods, however, do not jointly tackle objectives (i) and (ii). We propose a novel stacking design approach that addresses both goals. A multi-level reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) interpolator is first introduced to build the emulator, under which our stacking design provides a sequential approach for designing multi-fidelity runs such that a desired prediction error of $\epsilon > 0$ is met under regularity assumptions. We then prove a novel cost complexity theorem that, under this multi-level interpolator, establishes a bound on the computation cost (for training data simulation) needed to achieve a prediction bound of $\epsilon$. This result provides novel insights on conditions under which the proposed multi-fidelity approach improves upon a conventional RKHS interpolator which relies on a single fidelity level. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of stacking designs in a suite of simulation experiments and an application to finite element analysis.

In many applications of machine learning, a large number of variables are considered. Motivated by machine learning of interacting particle systems, we consider the situation when the number of input variables goes to infinity. First, we continue the recent investigation of the mean field limit of kernels and their reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, completing the existing theory. Next, we provide results relevant for approximation with such kernels in the mean field limit, including a representer theorem. Finally, we use these kernels in the context of statistical learning in the mean field limit, focusing on Support Vector Machines. In particular, we show mean field convergence of empirical and infinite-sample solutions as well as the convergence of the corresponding risks. On the one hand, our results establish rigorous mean field limits in the context of kernel methods, providing new theoretical tools and insights for large-scale problems. On the other hand, our setting corresponds to a new form of limit of learning problems, which seems to have not been investigated yet in the statistical learning theory literature.

The main goal of this work is to improve the efficiency of training binary neural networks, which are low latency and low energy networks. The main contribution of this work is the proposal of two solutions comprised of topology changes and strategy training that allow the network to achieve near the state-of-the-art performance and efficient training. The time required for training and the memory required in the process are two factors that contribute to efficient training.