Sequential Monte Carlo methods have been a major breakthrough in the field of numerical signal processing for stochastic dynamical state-space systems with partial and noisy observations. However, these methods still present certain weaknesses. One of the most fundamental is the degeneracy of the filter due to the impoverishment of the particles: the prediction step allows the particles to explore the state-space and can lead to the impoverishment of the particles if this exploration is poorly conducted or when it conflicts with the following observation that will be used in the evaluation of the likelihood of each particle. In this article, in order to improve this last step within the framework of the classic bootstrap particle filter, we propose a simple approximation of the one step fixed-lag smoother. At each time iteration, we propose to perform additional simulations during the prediction step in order to improve the likelihood of the selected particles.
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Motivated by the desire to understand stochastic algorithms for nonconvex optimization that are robust to their hyperparameter choices, we analyze a mini-batched prox-linear iterative algorithm for the problem of recovering an unknown rank-1 matrix from rank-1 Gaussian measurements corrupted by noise. We derive a deterministic recursion that predicts the error of this method and show, using a non-asymptotic framework, that this prediction is accurate for any batch-size and a large range of step-sizes. In particular, our analysis reveals that this method, though stochastic, converges linearly from a local initialization with a fixed step-size to a statistical error floor. Our analysis also exposes how the batch-size, step-size, and noise level affect the (linear) convergence rate and the eventual statistical estimation error, and we demonstrate how to use our deterministic predictions to perform hyperparameter tuning (e.g. step-size and batch-size selection) without ever running the method. On a technical level, our analysis is enabled in part by showing that the fluctuations of the empirical iterates around our deterministic predictions scale with the error of the previous iterate.
A rectangulation is a decomposition of a rectangle into finitely many rectangles. Via natural equivalence relations, rectangulations can be seen as combinatorial objects with a rich structure, with links to lattice congruences, flip graphs, polytopes, lattice paths, Hopf algebras, etc. In this paper, we first revisit the structure of the respective equivalence classes: weak rectangulations that preserve rectangle-segment adjacencies, and strong rectangulations that preserve rectangle-rectangle adjacencies. We thoroughly investigate posets defined by adjacency in rectangulations of both kinds, and unify and simplify known bijections between rectangulations and permutation classes. This yields a uniform treatment of mappings between permutations and rectangulations that unifies the results from earlier contributions, and emphasizes parallelism and differences between the weak and the strong cases. Then, we consider the special case of guillotine rectangulations, and prove that they can be characterized - under all known mappings between permutations and rectangulations - by avoidance of two mesh patterns that correspond to "windmills" in rectangulations. This yields new permutation classes in bijection with weak guillotine rectangulations, and the first known permutation class in bijection with strong guillotine rectangulations. Finally, we address enumerative issues and prove asymptotic bounds for several families of strong rectangulations.
We propose a model for the coupling of flow and transport equations with porous membrane-type conditions on part of the boundary. The governing equations consist of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations coupled with an advection-diffusion equation, and we employ a Lagrange multiplier to enforce the coupling between penetration velocity and transport on the membrane, while mixed boundary conditions are considered in the remainder of the boundary. We show existence and uniqueness of the continuous problem using a fixed-point argument. Next, an H(div)-conforming finite element formulation is proposed, and we address its a priori error analysis. The method uses an upwind approach that provides stability in the convection-dominated regime. We showcase a set of numerical examples validating the theory and illustrating the use of the new methods in the simulation of reverse osmosis processes.
The growth pattern of an invasive cell-to-cell propagation (called the successive coronas) on the square grid is a tilted square. On the triangular and hexagonal grids, it is an hexagon. It is remarkable that, on the aperiodic structure of Penrose tilings, this cell-to-cell diffusion process tends to a regular decagon (at the limit). In this article we generalize this result to any regular multigrid dual tiling, by defining the characteristic polygon of a multigrid and its dual tiling. Exploiting this elegant duality allows to fully understand why such surprising phenomena, of seeing highly regular polygonal shapes emerge from aperiodic underlying structures, happen.
Recently, there has been a growing interest in mixed-categorical metamodels based on Gaussian Process (GP) for Bayesian optimization. In this context, different approaches can be used to build the mixed-categorical GP. Many of these approaches involve a high number of hyperparameters; in fact, the more general and precise the strategy used to build the GP, the greater the number of hyperparameters to estimate. This paper introduces an innovative dimension reduction algorithm that relies on partial least squares regression to reduce the number of hyperparameters used to build a mixed-variable GP. Our goal is to generalize classical dimension reduction techniques commonly used within GP (for continuous inputs) to handle mixed-categorical inputs. The good potential of the proposed method is demonstrated in both structural and multidisciplinary application contexts. The targeted applications include the analysis of a cantilever beam as well as the optimization of a green aircraft, resulting in a significant 439-kilogram reduction in fuel consumption during a single mission.
Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the forecasters are skillful enough to forecast the future values of those variables. Here a method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables is introduced. The method is simple to use and does not rely on complicated assumptions required by the conventional statistical methods for measuring accuracy of directional forecast. The data on GDP growth and inflation forecasts of three organizations from Thailand, namely, the Bank of Thailand, the Fiscal Policy Office, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council as well as the actual data on GDP growth and inflation of Thailand between 2001 and 2021 are employed in order to demonstrate how the method could be used to evaluate the skills of forecasters in practice. The overall results indicate that these three organizations are somewhat skillful in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation when no band and a band of +/- 1 standard deviation of the forecasted outcome are considered. However, when a band of +/- 0.5% of the forecasted outcome is introduced, the skills in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation of these three organizations are, at best, little better than intelligent guess work.
We present a complete numerical analysis for a general discretization of a coupled flow-mechanics model in fractured porous media, considering single-phase flows and including frictionless contact at matrix-fracture interfaces, as well as nonlinear poromechanical coupling. Fractures are described as planar surfaces, yielding the so-called mixed- or hybrid-dimensional models. Small displacements and a linear elastic behavior are considered for the matrix. The model accounts for discontinuous fluid pressures at matrix-fracture interfaces in order to cover a wide range of normal fracture conductivities. The numerical analysis is carried out in the Gradient Discretization framework, encompassing a large family of conforming and nonconforming discretizations. The convergence result also yields, as a by-product, the existence of a weak solution to the continuous model. A numerical experiment in 2D is presented to support the obtained result, employing a Hybrid Finite Volume scheme for the flow and second-order finite elements ($\mathbb P_2$) for the mechanical displacement coupled with face-wise constant ($\mathbb P_0$) Lagrange multipliers on fractures, representing normal stresses, to discretize the contact conditions.
We introduce a predictor-corrector discretisation scheme for the numerical integration of a class of stochastic differential equations and prove that it converges with weak order 1.0. The key feature of the new scheme is that it builds up sequentially (and recursively) in the dimension of the state space of the solution, hence making it suitable for approximations of high-dimensional state space models. We show, using the stochastic Lorenz 96 system as a test model, that the proposed method can operate with larger time steps than the standard Euler-Maruyama scheme and, therefore, generate valid approximations with a smaller computational cost. We also introduce the theoretical analysis of the error incurred by the new predictor-corrector scheme when used as a building block for discrete-time Bayesian filters for continuous-time systems. Finally, we assess the performance of several ensemble Kalman filters that incorporate the proposed sequential predictor-corrector Euler scheme and the standard Euler-Maruyama method. The numerical experiments show that the filters employing the new sequential scheme can operate with larger time steps, smaller Monte Carlo ensembles and noisier systems.
We propose an adaptive iteratively linearized finite element method (AILFEM) in the context of strongly monotone nonlinear operators in Hilbert spaces. The approach combines adaptive mesh-refinement with an energy-contractive linearization scheme (e.g., the Ka\v{c}anov method) and a norm-contractive algebraic solver (e.g., an optimal geometric multigrid method). Crucially, a novel parameter-free algebraic stopping criterion is designed and we prove that it leads to a uniformly bounded number of algebraic solver steps. Unlike available results requiring sufficiently small adaptivity parameters to ensure even plain convergence, the new AILFEM algorithm guarantees full R-linear convergence for arbitrary adaptivity parameters. Thus, parameter-robust convergence is guaranteed. Moreover, for sufficiently small adaptivity parameters, the new adaptive algorithm guarantees optimal complexity, i.e., optimal convergence rates with respect to the overall computational cost and, hence, time.
It is well-known that decision-making problems from stochastic control can be formulated by means of forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). Recently, the authors of Ji et al. 2022 proposed an efficient deep learning-based algorithm which was based on the stochastic maximum principle (SMP). In this paper, we provide a convergence result for this deep SMP-BSDE algorithm and compare its performance with other existing methods. In particular, by adopting a similar strategy as in Han and Long 2020, we derive a posteriori error estimate, and show that the total approximation error can be bounded by the value of the loss functional and the discretization error. We present numerical examples for high-dimensional stochastic control problems, both in case of drift- and diffusion control, which showcase superior performance compared to existing algorithms.
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