Making inference with spatial extremal dependence models can be computationally burdensome since they involve intractable and/or censored likelihoods. Building on recent advances in likelihood-free inference with neural Bayes estimators, that is, neural networks that approximate Bayes estimators, we develop highly efficient estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models that encode censoring information in the neural network architecture. Our new method provides a paradigm shift that challenges traditional censored likelihood-based inference methods for spatial extremal dependence models. Our simulation studies highlight significant gains in both computational and statistical efficiency, relative to competing likelihood-based approaches, when applying our novel estimators to make inference with popular extremal dependence models, such as max-stable, $r$-Pareto, and random scale mixture process models. We also illustrate that it is possible to train a single neural Bayes estimator for a general censoring level, precluding the need to retrain the network when the censoring level is changed. We illustrate the efficacy of our estimators by making fast inference on hundreds-of-thousands of high-dimensional spatial extremal dependence models to assess extreme particulate matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5) concentration over the whole of Saudi Arabia.
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Certifying the positivity of trigonometric polynomials is of first importance for design problems in discrete-time signal processing. It is well known from the Riesz-Fej\'ez spectral factorization theorem that any trigonometric univariate polynomial positive on the unit circle can be decomposed as a Hermitian square with complex coefficients. Here we focus on the case of polynomials with Gaussian integer coefficients, i.e., with real and imaginary parts being integers. We design, analyze and compare, theoretically and practically,three hybrid numeric-symbolic algorithms computing weighted sums of Hermitian squares decompositions for trigonometric univariate polynomials positive on the unit circle with Gaussian coefficients. The numerical steps the first and second algorithm rely on are complex root isolation and semidefinite programming, respectively. An exact sum of Hermitian squares decomposition is obtained thanks to compensation techniques. The third algorithm, also based on complex semidefinite programming, is an adaptation of the rounding and projection algorithm by Peyrl and Parrilo. For all three algorithms, we prove bit complexity and output size estimates that are polynomial in the degree of the input and linear in the maximum bitsize of its coefficients. We compare their performance on randomly chosen benchmarks, and further design a certified finite impulse filter.
Recently, Sato et al. proposed an public verifiable blind quantum computation (BQC) protocol by inserting a third-party arbiter. However, it is not true public verifiable in a sense, because the arbiter is determined in advance and participates in the whole process. In this paper, a public verifiable protocol for measurement-only BQC is proposed. The fidelity between arbitrary states and the graph states of 2-colorable graphs is estimated by measuring the entanglement witnesses of the graph states,so as to verify the correctness of the prepared graph states. Compared with the previous protocol, our protocol is public verifiable in the true sense by allowing other random clients to execute the public verification. It also has greater advantages in the efficiency, where the number of local measurements is O(n^3*log {n}) and graph states' copies is O(n^2*log{n}).
Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 10 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 80% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources.
Preference-based optimization algorithms are iterative procedures that seek the optimal calibration of a decision vector based only on comparisons between couples of different tunings. At each iteration, a human decision-maker expresses a preference between two calibrations (samples), highlighting which one, if any, is better than the other. The optimization procedure must use the observed preferences to find the tuning of the decision vector that is most preferred by the decision-maker, while also minimizing the number of comparisons. In this work, we formulate the preference-based optimization problem from a utility theory perspective. Then, we propose GLISp-r, an extension of a recent preference-based optimization procedure called GLISp. The latter uses a Radial Basis Function surrogate to describe the tastes of the decision-maker. Iteratively, GLISp proposes new samples to compare with the best calibration available by trading off exploitation of the surrogate model and exploration of the decision space. In GLISp-r, we propose a different criterion to use when looking for new candidate samples that is inspired by MSRS, a popular procedure in the black-box optimization framework. Compared to GLISp, GLISp-r is less likely to get stuck on local optima of the preference-based optimization problem. We motivate this claim theoretically, with a proof of global convergence, and empirically, by comparing the performances of GLISp and GLISp-r on several benchmark optimization problems.
Semitopologies model consensus in distributed system by equating the notion of a quorum -- a set of participants sufficient to make local progress -- with that of an open set. This yields a topology-like theory of consensus, but semitopologies generalise topologies, since the intersection of two quorums need not necessarily be a quorum. The semitopological model of consensus is naturally heterogeneous and local, just like topologies can be heterogenous and local, and for the same reasons: points may have different quorums and there is no restriction that open sets / quorums be uniformly generated (e.g. open sets can be something other than two-thirds majorities of the points in the space). Semiframes are an algebraic abstraction of semitopologies. They are to semitopologies as frames are to topologies. We give a notion of semifilter, which plays a role analogous to filters, and show how to build a semiframe out of the open sets of a semitopology, and a semitopology out of the semifilters of a semiframe. We define suitable notions of category and morphism and prove a categorical duality between (sober) semiframes and (spatial) semitopologies, and investigate well-behavedness properties on semitopologies and semiframes across the duality. Surprisingly, the structure of semiframes is not what one might initially expect just from looking at semitopologies, and the canonical structure required for the duality result -- a compatibility relation *, generalising sets intersection -- is also canonical for expressing well-behavedness properties. Overall, we deliver a new categorical, algebraic, abstract framework within which to study consensus on distributed systems, and which is also simply interesting to consider as a mathematical theory in its own right.
Network motifs are recurrent, small-scale patterns of interactions observed frequently in a system. They shed light on the interplay between the topology and the dynamics of complex networks across various domains. In this work, we focus on the problem of counting occurrences of small sub-hypergraph patterns in very large hypergraphs, where higher-order interactions connect arbitrary numbers of system units. We show how directly exploiting higher-order structures speeds up the counting process compared to traditional data mining techniques for exact motif discovery. Moreover, with hyperedge sampling, performance is further improved at the cost of small errors in the estimation of motif frequency. We evaluate our method on several real-world datasets describing face-to-face interactions, co-authorship and human communication. We show that our approximated algorithm allows us to extract higher-order motifs faster and on a larger scale, beyond the computational limits of an exact approach.
Collaborative filtering (CF) has become a popular method for developing recommender systems (RSs) where ratings of a user for new items are predicted based on her past preferences and available preference information of other users. Despite the popularity of CF-based methods, their performance is often greatly limited by the sparsity of observed entries. In this study, we explore the data augmentation and refinement aspects of Maximum Margin Matrix Factorization (MMMF), a widely accepted CF technique for rating predictions, which has not been investigated before. We exploit the inherent characteristics of CF algorithms to assess the confidence level of individual ratings and propose a semi-supervised approach for rating augmentation based on self-training. We hypothesize that any CF algorithm's predictions with low confidence are due to some deficiency in the training data and hence, the performance of the algorithm can be improved by adopting a systematic data augmentation strategy. We iteratively use some of the ratings predicted with high confidence to augment the training data and remove low-confidence entries through a refinement process. By repeating this process, the system learns to improve prediction accuracy. Our method is experimentally evaluated on several state-of-the-art CF algorithms and leads to informative rating augmentation, improving the performance of the baseline approaches.
We introduce a flexible method to simultaneously infer both the drift and volatility functions of a discretely observed scalar diffusion. We introduce spline bases to represent these functions and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer, a posteriori, the coefficients of these functions in the spline basis. A key innovation is that we use spline bases to model transformed versions of the drift and volatility functions rather than the functions themselves. The output of the algorithm is a posterior sample of plausible drift and volatility functions that are not constrained to any particular parametric family. The flexibility of this approach provides practitioners a powerful investigative tool, allowing them to posit a variety of parametric models to better capture the underlying dynamics of their processes of interest. We illustrate the versatility of our method by applying it to challenging datasets from finance, paleoclimatology, and astrophysics. In view of the parametric diffusion models widely employed in the literature for those examples, some of our results are surprising since they call into question some aspects of these models.
FP8 formats are gaining popularity to boost the computational efficiency for training and inference of large deep learning models. Their main challenge is that a careful choice of scaling is needed to prevent degradation due to the reduced dynamic range compared to higher-precision formats. Although there exists ample literature about selecting such scalings for INT formats, this critical aspect has yet to be addressed for FP8. This paper presents a methodology to select the scalings for FP8 linear layers, based on dynamically updating per-tensor scales for the weights, gradients and activations. We apply this methodology to train and validate large language models of the type of GPT and Llama 2 using FP8, for model sizes ranging from 111M to 70B. To facilitate the understanding of the FP8 dynamics, our results are accompanied by plots of the per-tensor scale distribution for weights, activations and gradients during both training and inference.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.
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