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While multimodal foundation models can now natively work with data beyond text, they remain underutilized in analyzing the considerable amounts of multi-dimensional time-series data in fields like healthcare, finance, and social sciences, representing a missed opportunity for richer, data-driven insights. This paper proposes a simple but effective method that leverages the existing vision encoders of these models to "see" time-series data via plots, avoiding the need for additional, potentially costly, model training. Our empirical evaluations show that this approach outperforms providing the raw time-series data as text, with the additional benefit that visual time-series representations demonstrate up to a 90% reduction in model API costs. We validate our hypothesis through synthetic data tasks of increasing complexity, progressing from simple functional form identification on clean data, to extracting trends from noisy scatter plots. To demonstrate generalizability from synthetic tasks with clear reasoning steps to more complex, real-world scenarios, we apply our approach to consumer health tasks - specifically fall detection, activity recognition, and readiness assessment - which involve heterogeneous, noisy data and multi-step reasoning. The overall success in plot performance over text performance (up to an 120% performance increase on zero-shot synthetic tasks, and up to 150% performance increase on real-world tasks), across both GPT and Gemini model families, highlights our approach's potential for making the best use of the native capabilities of foundation models.

We introduce $5/2$- and $7/2$-order $L^2$-accurate randomized Runge-Kutta-Nystr\"{o}m methods, tailored for approximating Hamiltonian flows within non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers, such as unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and unadjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo. We establish quantitative $5/2$-order $L^2$-accuracy upper bounds under gradient and Hessian Lipschitz assumptions on the potential energy function. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior efficiency of the proposed unadjusted samplers on a variety of well-behaved, high-dimensional target distributions.

A major reason behind the recent success of large language models (LLMs) is their \textit{in-context learning} capability, which makes it possible to rapidly adapt them to downstream text-based tasks by prompting them with a small number of relevant demonstrations. While large vision-language models (VLMs) have recently been developed for tasks requiring both text and images, they largely lack in-context learning over visual information, especially in understanding and generating text about videos. In this work, we implement \textbf{E}mergent \textbf{I}n-context \textbf{Le}arning on \textbf{V}ideos (\eilev{}), a novel training paradigm that induces in-context learning over video and text by capturing key properties of pre-training data found by prior work to be essential for in-context learning in transformers. In our experiments, we show that \eilev-trained models outperform other off-the-shelf VLMs in few-shot video narration for novel, rare actions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these key properties of bursty distributions, skewed marginal distributions, and dynamic meaning each contribute to varying degrees to VLMs' in-context learning capability in narrating procedural videos. Our results, analysis, and \eilev{}-trained models yield numerous insights about the emergence of in-context learning over video and text, creating a foundation for future work to optimize and scale VLMs for open-domain video understanding and reasoning. Our code and demo are available at \url{//github.com/yukw777/EILEV}.

Nutrient load simulators are large, deterministic, models that simulate the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical processes in aquatic ecosystems. They are central tools for planning cost efficient actions to fight eutrophication since they allow scenario predictions on impacts of nutrient load reductions to, e.g., harmful algal biomass growth. Due to being computationally heavy, the uncertainties related to these predictions are typically not rigorously assessed though. In this work, we developed a novel Bayesian computational approach for estimating the uncertainties in predictions of the Finnish coastal nutrient load model FICOS. First, we constructed a likelihood function for the multivariate spatiotemporal outputs of the FICOS model. Then, we used Bayes optimization to locate the posterior mode for the model parameters conditional on long term monitoring data. After that, we constructed a space filling design for FICOS model runs around the posterior mode and used it to train a Gaussian process emulator for the (log) posterior density of the model parameters. We then integrated over this (approximate) parameter posterior to produce probabilistic predictions for algal biomass and chlorophyll a concentration under alternative nutrient load reduction scenarios. Our computational algorithm allowed for fast posterior inference and the Gaussian process emulator had good predictive accuracy within the highest posterior probability mass region. The posterior predictive scenarios showed that the probability to reach the EUs Water Framework Directive objectives in the Finnish Archipelago Sea is generally low even under large load reductions.

We present the first polynomial-time algorithm to exactly compute the number of labeled chordal graphs on $n$ vertices. Our algorithm solves a more general problem: given $n$ and $\omega$ as input, it computes the number of $\omega$-colorable labeled chordal graphs on $n$ vertices, using $O(n^7)$ arithmetic operations. A standard sampling-to-counting reduction then yields a polynomial-time exact sampler that generates an $\omega$-colorable labeled chordal graph on $n$ vertices uniformly at random. Our counting algorithm improves upon the previous best result by Wormald (1985), which computes the number of labeled chordal graphs on $n$ vertices in time exponential in $n$. An implementation of the polynomial-time counting algorithm gives the number of labeled chordal graphs on up to $30$ vertices in less than three minutes on a standard desktop computer. Previously, the number of labeled chordal graphs was only known for graphs on up to $15$ vertices. In addition, we design two approximation algorithms: (1) an approximate counting algorithm that computes a $(1\pm\varepsilon)$-approximation of the number of $n$-vertex labeled chordal graphs, and (2) an approximate sampling algorithm that generates a random labeled chordal graph according to a distribution whose total variation distance from the uniform distribution is at most $\varepsilon$. The approximate counting algorithm runs in $O(n^3\log{n}\log^7(1/\varepsilon))$ time, and the approximate sampling algorithm runs in $O(n^3\log{n}\log^7(1/\varepsilon))$ expected time.

Semiring semantics of first-order logic generalises classical Boolean semantics by permitting truth values from a commutative semiring, which can model information such as costs or access restrictions. This raises the question to what extent classical model theoretic properties still apply, and how this depends on the algebraic properties of the semiring. In this paper, we study this question for the classical locality theorems due to Hanf and Gaifman. We prove that Hanf's Locality Theorem generalises to all semirings with idempotent operations, but fails for many non-idempotent semirings. We then consider Gaifman normal forms and show that for formulae with free variables, Gaifman's Theorem does not generalise beyond the Boolean semiring. Also for sentences, it fails in the natural semiring and the tropical semiring. Our main result, however, is a constructive proof of the existence of Gaifman normal forms for min-max and lattice semirings. The proof implies a stronger version of Gaifman's classical theorem in Boolean semantics: every sentence has a Gaifman normal form which does not add negations.

We study the estimation of distributional parameters when samples are shown only if they fall in some unknown set $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$. Kontonis, Tzamos, and Zampetakis (FOCS'19) gave a $d^{\mathrm{poly}(1/\varepsilon)}$ time algorithm for finding $\varepsilon$-accurate parameters for the special case of Gaussian distributions with diagonal covariance matrix. Recently, Diakonikolas, Kane, Pittas, and Zarifis (COLT'24) showed that this exponential dependence on $1/\varepsilon$ is necessary even when $S$ belongs to some well-behaved classes. These works leave the following open problems which we address in this work: Can we estimate the parameters of any Gaussian or even extend beyond Gaussians? Can we design $\mathrm{poly}(d/\varepsilon)$ time algorithms when $S$ is a simple set such as a halfspace? We make progress on both of these questions by providing the following results: 1. Toward the first question, we give a $d^{\mathrm{poly}(\ell/\varepsilon)}$ time algorithm for any exponential family that satisfies some structural assumptions and any unknown set $S$ that is $\varepsilon$-approximable by degree-$\ell$ polynomials. This result has two important applications: 1a) The first algorithm for estimating arbitrary Gaussian distributions from samples truncated to an unknown $S$; and 1b) The first algorithm for linear regression with unknown truncation and Gaussian features. 2. To address the second question, we provide an algorithm with runtime $\mathrm{poly}(d/\varepsilon)$ that works for a set of exponential families (containing all Gaussians) when $S$ is a halfspace or an axis-aligned rectangle. Along the way, we develop tools that may be of independent interest, including, a reduction from PAC learning with positive and unlabeled samples to PAC learning with positive and negative samples that is robust to certain covariate shifts.

Given a finite set of sample points, meta-learning algorithms aim to learn an optimal adaptation strategy for new, unseen tasks. Often, this data can be ambiguous as it might belong to different tasks concurrently. This is particularly the case in meta-regression tasks. In such cases, the estimated adaptation strategy is subject to high variance due to the limited amount of support data for each task, which often leads to sub-optimal generalization performance. In this work, we address the problem of variance reduction in gradient-based meta-learning and formalize the class of problems prone to this, a condition we refer to as \emph{task overlap}. Specifically, we propose a novel approach that reduces the variance of the gradient estimate by weighing each support point individually by the variance of its posterior over the parameters. To estimate the posterior, we utilize the Laplace approximation, which allows us to express the variance in terms of the curvature of the loss landscape of our meta-learner. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and highlight the importance of variance reduction in meta-learning.

Significant work has been done on computing the ``average'' optimal solution value for various $\mathsf{NP}$-complete problems using the Erd\"{o}s-R\'{e}nyi model to establish \emph{critical thresholds}. Critical thresholds define narrow bounds for the optimal solution of a problem instance such that the probability that the solution value lies outside these bounds vanishes as the instance size approaches infinity. In this paper, we extend the Erd\"{o}s-R\'{e}nyi model to general hypergraphs on $n$ vertices and $M$ hyperedges. We consider the problem of determining critical thresholds for the largest cardinality matching, and we show that for $M=o(1.155^n)$ the size of the maximum cardinality matching is almost surely 1. On the other hand, if $M=\Theta(2^n)$ then the size of the maximum cardinality matching is $\Omega(n^{\frac12-\gamma})$ for an arbitrary $\gamma >0$. Lastly, we address the gap where $\Omega(1.155^n)=M=o(2^n)$ empirically through computer simulations.

We introduce a generic framework that reduces the computational cost of object detection while retaining accuracy for scenarios where objects with varied sizes appear in high resolution images. Detection progresses in a coarse-to-fine manner, first on a down-sampled version of the image and then on a sequence of higher resolution regions identified as likely to improve the detection accuracy. Built upon reinforcement learning, our approach consists of a model (R-net) that uses coarse detection results to predict the potential accuracy gain for analyzing a region at a higher resolution and another model (Q-net) that sequentially selects regions to zoom in. Experiments on the Caltech Pedestrians dataset show that our approach reduces the number of processed pixels by over 50% without a drop in detection accuracy. The merits of our approach become more significant on a high resolution test set collected from YFCC100M dataset, where our approach maintains high detection performance while reducing the number of processed pixels by about 70% and the detection time by over 50%.