Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, $H_0$, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and $\Lambda$CDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred $H_0$ values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are $H_0= 66 \pm 6\, \mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, $H_0= 67 \pm 10\, \mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $H_0= 69 \pm 6\, \mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with $\ln R=12.17\pm 0.02$.
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We develop a new rank-based approach for univariate two-sample testing in the presence of missing data which makes no assumptions about the missingness mechanism. This approach is a theoretical extension of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test that controls the Type I error by providing exact bounds for the test statistic after accounting for the number of missing values. Greater statistical power is shown when the method is extended to account for a bounded domain. Furthermore, exact bounds are provided on the proportions of data that can be missing in the two samples while yielding a significant result. Simulations demonstrate that our method has good power, typically for cases of $10\%$ to $20\%$ missing data, while standard imputation approaches fail to control the Type I error. We illustrate our method on complex clinical trial data in which patients' withdrawal from the trial lead to missing values.
A fourth-order exponential time differencing (ETD) Runge-Kutta scheme with dimensional splitting is developed to solve multidimensional non-linear systems of reaction-diffusion equations (RDE). By approximating the matrix exponential in the scheme with the A-acceptable Pad\'e (2,2) rational function, the resulting scheme (ETDRK4P22-IF) is verified empirically to be fourth-order accurate for several RDE. The scheme is shown to be more efficient than competing fourth-order ETD and IMEX schemes, achieving up to 20 times speed in CPU time. Inclusion of up to three pre-smoothing steps of a lower order L-stable scheme facilitates efficient damping of spurious oscillations arising from problems with non-smooth initial/boundary conditions.
We consider the problem of estimating log-determinants of large, sparse, positive definite matrices. A key focus of our algorithm is to reduce computational cost, and it is based on sparse approximate inverses. The algorithm can be implemented to be adaptive, and it uses graph spline approximation to improve accuracy. We illustrate our approach on classes of large sparse matrices.
We identify reduced order models (ROM) of forced systems from data using invariant foliations. The forcing can be external, parametric, periodic or quasi-periodic. The process has four steps: 1. identify an approximate invariant torus and the linear dynamics about the torus; 2. identify a globally defined invariant foliation about the torus; 3. identify a local foliation about an invariant manifold that complements the global foliation 4. extract the invariant manifold as the leaf going through the torus and interpret the result. We combine steps 2 and 3, so that we can track the location of the invariant torus and scale the invariance equations appropriately. We highlight some fundamental limitations of invariant manifolds and foliations when fitting them to data, that require further mathematics to resolve.
We improve the classical results by Brenner and Thom\'ee on rational approximations of operator semigroups. In the setting of Hilbert spaces, we introduce a finer regularity scale for initial data, provide sharper stability estimates, and obtain optimal approximation rates. Moreover, we strengthen a result due to Egert-Rozendaal on subdiagonal Pad\'e approximations of operator semigroups. Our approach is direct and based on the theory of the $\mathcal B$- functional calculus developed recently. On the way, we elaborate a new and simple approach to construction of the $\mathcal B$-calculus thus making the paper essentially self-contai
The aim of this paper is to study the complexity of the model checking problem MC for inquisitive propositional logic InqB and for inquisitive modal logic InqM, that is, the problem of deciding whether a given finite structure for the logic satisfies a given formula. In recent years, this problem has been thoroughly investigated for several variations of dependence and teams logics, systems closely related to inquisitive logic. Building upon some ideas presented by Yang, we prove that the model checking problems for InqB and InqM are both AP-complete.
In this work, we present an efficient approach to solve nonlinear high-contrast multiscale diffusion problems. We incorporate the explicit-implicit-null (EIN) method to separate the nonlinear term into a linear term and a damping term, and then utilise the implicit and explicit time marching scheme for the two parts respectively. Due to the multiscale property of the linear part, we further introduce a temporal partially explicit splitting scheme and construct suitable multiscale subspaces to speed up the computation. The approximated solution is splitted into these subspaces associated with different physics. The temporal splitting scheme employs implicit discretization in the subspace with small dimension that representing the high-contrast property and uses explicit discretization for the other subspace. We exploit the stability of the proposed scheme and give the condition for the choice of the linear diffusion coefficient. The convergence of the proposed method is provided. Several numerical tests are performed to show the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach.
In many communication contexts, the capabilities of the involved actors cannot be known beforehand, whether it is a cell, a plant, an insect, or even a life form unknown to Earth. Regardless of the recipient, the message space and time scale could be too fast, too slow, too large, or too small and may never be decoded. Therefore, it pays to devise a way to encode messages agnostic of space and time scales. We propose the use of fractal functions as self-executable infinite-frequency carriers for sending messages, given their properties of structural self-similarity and scale invariance. We call it `fractal messaging'. Starting from a spatial embedding, we introduce a framework for a space-time scale-free messaging approach to this challenge. When considering a space and time-agnostic framework for message transmission, it would be interesting to encode a message such that it could be decoded at several spatio-temporal scales. Hence, the core idea of the framework proposed herein is to encode a binary message as waves along infinitely many frequencies (in power-like distributions) and amplitudes, transmit such a message, and then decode and reproduce it. To do so, the components of the Weierstrass function, a known fractal, are used as carriers of the message. Each component will have its amplitude modulated to embed the binary stream, allowing for a space-time-agnostic approach to messaging.
Ever since the seminal work of R. A. Fisher and F. Yates, factorial designs have been an important experimental tool to simultaneously estimate the effects of multiple treatment factors. In factorial designs, the number of treatment combinations grows exponentially with the number of treatment factors, which motivates the forward selection strategy based on the sparsity, hierarchy, and heredity principles for factorial effects. Although this strategy is intuitive and has been widely used in practice, its rigorous statistical theory has not been formally established. To fill this gap, we establish design-based theory for forward factor selection in factorial designs based on the potential outcome framework. We not only prove a consistency property for the factor selection procedure but also discuss statistical inference after factor selection. In particular, with selection consistency, we quantify the advantages of forward selection based on asymptotic efficiency gain in estimating factorial effects. With inconsistent selection in higher-order interactions, we propose two strategies and investigate their impact on subsequent inference. Our formulation differs from the existing literature on variable selection and post-selection inference because our theory is based solely on the physical randomization of the factorial design and does not rely on a correctly specified outcome model.
Most state-of-the-art machine learning techniques revolve around the optimisation of loss functions. Defining appropriate loss functions is therefore critical to successfully solving problems in this field. We present a survey of the most commonly used loss functions for a wide range of different applications, divided into classification, regression, ranking, sample generation and energy based modelling. Overall, we introduce 33 different loss functions and we organise them into an intuitive taxonomy. Each loss function is given a theoretical backing and we describe where it is best used. This survey aims to provide a reference of the most essential loss functions for both beginner and advanced machine learning practitioners.
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