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We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often hierarchically structured, e.g., a company sales might be broken down into different regions, and each region into different stores. In some cases the number of series in the hierarchy is too big to fit in a single model to produce forecasts in relevant time, and a decentralized approach is beneficial. One way to do this is to train independent forecasting models for each series and for some summary statistics series implied by the hierarchy (e.g. the sum of all series) and to pass those models to a reconciliation algorithm to improve those forecasts by sharing information between the series. In this work we focus on the reconciliation step, and propose a method to do so from a Bayesian perspective - Bayesian forecast reconciliation. We also define the common case of linear Gaussian reconciliation, where the forecasts are Gaussian and the hierarchy has linear structure, and show that we can compute reconciliation in closed form. We evaluate these methods on synthetic and real data sets, and compare them to other work in this field.

The recent surge of generative AI has been fueled by the generative power of diffusion probabilistic models and the scalable capabilities of large language models. Despite their potential, it remains elusive whether diffusion language models can solve general language tasks comparable to their autoregressive counterparts. This paper demonstrates that scaling diffusion models w.r.t. data, sizes, and tasks can effectively make them strong language learners. We build competent diffusion language models at scale by first acquiring knowledge from massive data via masked language modeling pretraining thanks to their intrinsic connections. We then reprogram pretrained masked language models into diffusion language models via diffusive adaptation, wherein task-specific finetuning and instruction finetuning are explored to unlock their versatility in solving general language tasks. Experiments show that scaling diffusion language models consistently improves performance across downstream language tasks. We further discover that instruction finetuning can elicit zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning abilities that help tackle many unseen tasks by following natural language instructions, and show promise in advanced and challenging abilities such as reasoning.

Whole slide image (WSI) analysis has become increasingly important in the medical imaging community, enabling automated and objective diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic-response prediction. However, in clinical practice, the ever-evolving environment hamper the utility of WSI analysis models. In this paper, we propose the FIRST continual learning framework for WSI analysis, named ConSlide, to tackle the challenges of enormous image size, utilization of hierarchical structure, and catastrophic forgetting by progressive model updating on multiple sequential datasets. Our framework contains three key components. The Hierarchical Interaction Transformer (HIT) is proposed to model and utilize the hierarchical structural knowledge of WSI. The Breakup-Reorganize (BuRo) rehearsal method is developed for WSI data replay with efficient region storing buffer and WSI reorganizing operation. The asynchronous updating mechanism is devised to encourage the network to learn generic and specific knowledge respectively during the replay stage, based on a nested cross-scale similarity learning (CSSL) module. We evaluated the proposed ConSlide on four public WSI datasets from TCGA projects. It performs best over other state-of-the-art methods with a fair WSI-based continual learning setting and achieves a better trade-off of the overall performance and forgetting on previous task

While most research into speech synthesis has focused on synthesizing high-quality speech for in-dataset speakers, an equally essential yet unsolved problem is synthesizing speech for unseen speakers who are out-of-dataset with limited reference data, i.e., speaker adaptive speech synthesis. Many studies have proposed zero-shot speaker adaptive text-to-speech and voice conversion approaches aimed at this task. However, most current approaches suffer from the degradation of naturalness and speaker similarity when synthesizing speech for unseen speakers (i.e., speakers not in the training dataset) due to the poor generalizability of the model in out-of-distribution data. To address this problem, we propose GZS-TV, a generalizable zero-shot speaker adaptive text-to-speech and voice conversion model. GZS-TV introduces disentangled representation learning for both speaker embedding extraction and timbre transformation to improve model generalization and leverages the representation learning capability of the variational autoencoder to enhance the speaker encoder. Our experiments demonstrate that GZS-TV reduces performance degradation on unseen speakers and outperforms all baseline models in multiple datasets.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

In semi-supervised domain adaptation, a few labeled samples per class in the target domain guide features of the remaining target samples to aggregate around them. However, the trained model cannot produce a highly discriminative feature representation for the target domain because the training data is dominated by labeled samples from the source domain. This could lead to disconnection between the labeled and unlabeled target samples as well as misalignment between unlabeled target samples and the source domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Cross-domain Adaptive Clustering to address this problem. To achieve both inter-domain and intra-domain adaptation, we first introduce an adversarial adaptive clustering loss to group features of unlabeled target data into clusters and perform cluster-wise feature alignment across the source and target domains. We further apply pseudo labeling to unlabeled samples in the target domain and retain pseudo-labels with high confidence. Pseudo labeling expands the number of ``labeled" samples in each class in the target domain, and thus produces a more robust and powerful cluster core for each class to facilitate adversarial learning. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, including DomainNet, Office-Home and Office, demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves the state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised domain adaptation.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Sentiment analysis is a widely studied NLP task where the goal is to determine opinions, emotions, and evaluations of users towards a product, an entity or a service that they are reviewing. One of the biggest challenges for sentiment analysis is that it is highly language dependent. Word embeddings, sentiment lexicons, and even annotated data are language specific. Further, optimizing models for each language is very time consuming and labor intensive especially for recurrent neural network models. From a resource perspective, it is very challenging to collect data for different languages. In this paper, we look for an answer to the following research question: can a sentiment analysis model trained on a language be reused for sentiment analysis in other languages, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, and Dutch, where the data is more limited? Our goal is to build a single model in the language with the largest dataset available for the task, and reuse it for languages that have limited resources. For this purpose, we train a sentiment analysis model using recurrent neural networks with reviews in English. We then translate reviews in other languages and reuse this model to evaluate the sentiments. Experimental results show that our robust approach of single model trained on English reviews statistically significantly outperforms the baselines in several different languages.

Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.