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A Petrov-Galerkin finite element method is constructed for a singularly perturbed elliptic problem in two space dimensions. The solution contains a regular boundary layer and two characteristic boundary layers. Exponential splines are used as test functions in one coordinate direction and are combined with bilinear trial functions defined on a Shishkin mesh. The resulting numerical method is shown to be a stable parameter-uniform numerical method that achieves a higher order of convergence compared to upwinding on the same mesh.

The conditional survival function of a time-to-event outcome subject to censoring and truncation is a common target of estimation in survival analysis. This parameter may be of scientific interest and also often appears as a nuisance in nonparametric and semiparametric problems. In addition to classical parametric and semiparametric methods (e.g., based on the Cox proportional hazards model), flexible machine learning approaches have been developed to estimate the conditional survival function. However, many of these methods are either implicitly or explicitly targeted toward risk stratification rather than overall survival function estimation. Others apply only to discrete-time settings or require inverse probability of censoring weights, which can be as difficult to estimate as the outcome survival function itself. Here, we employ a decomposition of the conditional survival function in terms of observable regression models in which censoring and truncation play no role. This allows application of an array of flexible regression and classification methods rather than only approaches that explicitly handle the complexities inherent to survival data. We outline estimation procedures based on this decomposition, empirically assess their performance, and demonstrate their use on data from an HIV vaccine trial.

In generalized regression models the effect of continuous covariates is commonly assumed to be linear. This assumption, however, may be too restrictive in applications and may lead to biased effect estimates and decreased predictive ability. While a multitude of alternatives for the flexible modeling of continuous covariates have been proposed, methods that provide guidance for choosing a suitable functional form are still limited. To address this issue, we propose a detection algorithm that evaluates several approaches for modeling continuous covariates and guides practitioners to choose the most appropriate alternative. The algorithm utilizes a unified framework for tree-structured modeling which makes the results easily interpretable. We assessed the performance of the algorithm by conducting a simulation study. To illustrate the proposed algorithm, we analyzed data of patients suffering from chronic kidney disease.

Large transformers are powerful architectures used for self-supervised data analysis across various data types, including protein sequences, images, and text. In these models, the semantic structure of the dataset emerges from a sequence of transformations between one representation and the next. We characterize the geometric and statistical properties of these representations and how they change as we move through the layers. By analyzing the intrinsic dimension (ID) and neighbor composition, we find that the representations evolve similarly in transformers trained on protein language tasks and image reconstruction tasks. In the first layers, the data manifold expands, becoming high-dimensional, and then contracts significantly in the intermediate layers. In the last part of the model, the ID remains approximately constant or forms a second shallow peak. We show that the semantic information of the dataset is better expressed at the end of the first peak, and this phenomenon can be observed across many models trained on diverse datasets. Based on our findings, we point out an explicit strategy to identify, without supervision, the layers that maximize semantic content: representations at intermediate layers corresponding to a relative minimum of the ID profile are more suitable for downstream learning tasks.

Many of the tools available for robot learning were designed for Euclidean data. However, many applications in robotics involve manifold-valued data. A common example is orientation; this can be represented as a 3-by-3 rotation matrix or a quaternion, the spaces of which are non-Euclidean manifolds. In robot learning, manifold-valued data are often handled by relating the manifold to a suitable Euclidean space, either by embedding the manifold or by projecting the data onto one or several tangent spaces. These approaches can result in poor predictive accuracy, and convoluted algorithms. In this paper, we propose an "intrinsic" approach to regression that works directly within the manifold. It involves taking a suitable probability distribution on the manifold, letting its parameter be a function of a predictor variable, such as time, then estimating that function non-parametrically via a "local likelihood" method that incorporates a kernel. We name the method kernelised likelihood estimation. The approach is conceptually simple, and generally applicable to different manifolds. We implement it with three different types of manifold-valued data that commonly appear in robotics applications. The results of these experiments show better predictive accuracy than projection-based algorithms.

The Volterra integral-functional series is the classic approach for nonlinear black box dynamical systems modeling. It is widely employed in many domains including radiophysics, aerodynamics, electronic and electrical engineering and many other. Identifying the time-varying functional parameters, also known as Volterra kernels, poses a difficulty due to the curse of dimensionality. This refers to the exponential growth in the number of model parameters as the complexity of the input-output response increases. The least squares method (LSM) is widely acknowledged as the standard approach for tackling the issue of identifying parameters. Unfortunately, the LSM suffers with many drawbacks such as the sensitivity to outliers causing biased estimation, multicollinearity, overfitting and inefficiency with large datasets. This paper presents alternative approach based on direct estimation of the Volterra kernels using the collocation method. Two model examples are studied. It is found that the collocation method presents a promising alternative for optimization, surpassing the traditional least squares method when it comes to the Volterra kernels identification including the case when input and output signals suffer from considerable measurement errors.

The Bayesian statistical framework provides a systematic approach to enhance the regularization model by incorporating prior information about the desired solution. For the Bayesian linear inverse problems with Gaussian noise and Gaussian prior, we propose a new iterative regularization algorithm that belongs to subspace projection regularization (SPR) methods. By treating the forward model matrix as a linear operator between the two underlying finite dimensional Hilbert spaces with new introduced inner products, we first introduce an iterative process that can generate a series of valid solution subspaces. The SPR method then projects the original problem onto these solution subspaces to get a series of low dimensional linear least squares problems, where an efficient procedure is developed to update the solutions of them to approximate the desired solution of the original problem. With the new designed early stopping rules, this iterative algorithm can obtain a regularized solution with a satisfied accuracy. Several theoretical results about the algorithm are established to reveal the regularization properties of it. We use both small-scale and large-scale inverse problems to test the proposed algorithm and demonstrate its robustness and efficiency. The most computationally intensive operations in the proposed algorithm only involve matrix-vector products, making it highly efficient for large-scale problems.

Since their initial introduction, score-based diffusion models (SDMs) have been successfully applied to solve a variety of linear inverse problems in finite-dimensional vector spaces due to their ability to efficiently approximate the posterior distribution. However, using SDMs for inverse problems in infinite-dimensional function spaces has only been addressed recently, primarily through methods that learn the unconditional score. While this approach is advantageous for some inverse problems, it is mostly heuristic and involves numerous computationally costly forward operator evaluations during posterior sampling. To address these limitations, we propose a theoretically grounded method for sampling from the posterior of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems based on amortized conditional SDMs. In particular, we prove that one of the most successful approaches for estimating the conditional score in finite dimensions - the conditional denoising estimator - can also be applied in infinite dimensions. A significant part of our analysis is dedicated to demonstrating that extending infinite-dimensional SDMs to the conditional setting requires careful consideration, as the conditional score typically blows up for small times, contrarily to the unconditional score. We conclude by presenting stylized and large-scale numerical examples that validate our approach, offer additional insights, and demonstrate that our method enables large-scale, discretization-invariant Bayesian inference.

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

We analyse a second-order SPDE model in multiple space dimensions and develop estimators for the parameters of this model based on discrete observations of a solution in time and space on a bounded domain. While parameter estimation for one and two spatial dimensions was established in recent literature, this is the first work which generalizes the theory to a general, multi-dimensional framework. Our approach builds upon realized volatilities, enabling the construction of an oracle estimator for volatility within the underlying model. Furthermore, we show that the realized volatilities have an asymptotic illustration as response of a log-linear model with spatial explanatory variable. This yields novel and efficient estimators based on realized volatilities with optimal rates of convergence and minimal variances. For proving central limit theorems, we use a high-frequency observation scheme. To showcase our results, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation.