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Many researchers have identified distribution shift as a likely contributor to the reproducibility crisis in behavioral and biomedical sciences. The idea is that if treatment effects vary across individual characteristics and experimental contexts, then studies conducted in different populations will estimate different average effects. This paper uses ``generalizability" methods to quantify how much of the effect size discrepancy between an original study and its replication can be explained by distribution shift on observed unit-level characteristics. More specifically, we decompose this discrepancy into ``components" attributable to sampling variability (including publication bias), observable distribution shifts, and residual factors. We compute this decomposition for several directly-replicated behavioral science experiments and find little evidence that observable distribution shifts contribute appreciably to non-replicability. In some cases, this is because there is too much statistical noise. In other cases, there is strong evidence that controlling for additional moderators is necessary for reliable replication.

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CASES:International Conference on Compilers, Architectures, and Synthesis for Embedded Systems。 Explanation:嵌入式系統編譯器、體系結構和綜合國際會議。 Publisher:ACM。 SIT:

We observe a large variety of robots in terms of their bodies, sensors, and actuators. Given the commonalities in the skill sets, teaching each skill to each different robot independently is inefficient and not scalable when the large variety in the robotic landscape is considered. If we can learn the correspondences between the sensorimotor spaces of different robots, we can expect a skill that is learned in one robot can be more directly and easily transferred to the other robots. In this paper, we propose a method to learn correspondences between robots that have significant differences in their morphologies: a fixed-based manipulator robot with joint control and a differential drive mobile robot. For this, both robots are first given demonstrations that achieve the same tasks. A common latent representation is formed while learning the corresponding policies. After this initial learning stage, the observation of a new task execution by one robot becomes sufficient to generate a latent space representation pertaining to the other robot to achieve the same task. We verified our system in a set of experiments where the correspondence between two simulated robots is learned (1) when the robots need to follow the same paths to achieve the same task, (2) when the robots need to follow different trajectories to achieve the same task, and (3) when complexities of the required sensorimotor trajectories are different for the robots considered. We also provide a proof-of-the-concept realization of correspondence learning between a real manipulator robot and a simulated mobile robot.

Rational function approximations provide a simple but flexible alternative to polynomial approximation, allowing one to capture complex non-linearities without oscillatory artifacts. However, there have been few attempts to use rational functions on noisy data due to the likelihood of creating spurious singularities. To avoid the creation of singularities, we use Bernstein polynomials and appropriate conditions on their coefficients to force the denominator to be strictly positive. While this reduces the range of rational polynomials that can be expressed, it keeps all the benefits of rational functions while maintaining the robustness of polynomial approximation in noisy data scenarios. Our numerical experiments on noisy data show that existing rational approximation methods continually produce spurious poles inside the approximation domain. This contrasts our method, which cannot create poles in the approximation domain and provides better fits than a polynomial approximation and even penalized splines on functions with multiple variables. Moreover, guaranteeing pole-free in an interval is critical for estimating non-constant coefficients when numerically solving differential equations using spectral methods. This provides a compact representation of the original differential equation, allowing numeric solvers to achieve high accuracy quickly, as seen in our experiments.

A new mechanical model on noncircular shallow tunnelling considering initial stress field is proposed in this paper by constraining far-field ground surface to eliminate displacement singularity at infinity, and the originally unbalanced tunnel excavation problem in existing solutions is turned to an equilibrium one of mixed boundaries. By applying analytic continuation, the mixed boundaries are transformed to a homogenerous Riemann-Hilbert problem, which is subsequently solved via an efficient and accurate iterative method with boundary conditions of static equilibrium, displacement single-valuedness, and traction along tunnel periphery. The Lanczos filtering technique is used in the final stress and displacement solution to reduce the Gibbs phenomena caused by the constrained far-field ground surface for more accurte results. Several numerical cases are conducted to intensively verify the proposed solution by examining boundary conditions and comparing with existing solutions, and all the results are in good agreements. Then more numerical cases are conducted to investigate the stress and deformation distribution along ground surface and tunnel periphery, and several engineering advices are given. Further discussions on the defects of the proposed solution are also conducted for objectivity.

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction in the analysis of multivariate data. This is achieved through decomposition of a p x p covariance matrix into the sum of two components. Through a latent factor representation, they can be interpreted as a diagonal matrix of idiosyncratic variances and a shared variation matrix, that is, the product of a p x k factor loadings matrix and its transpose. If k << p, this defines a sparse factorisation of the covariance matrix. Historically, little attention has been paid to incorporating prior information in Bayesian analyses using factor models where, at best, the prior for the factor loadings is order invariant. In this work, a class of structured priors is developed that can encode ideas of dependence structure about the shared variation matrix. The construction allows data-informed shrinkage towards sensible parametric structures while also facilitating inference over the number of factors. Using an unconstrained reparameterisation of stationary vector autoregressions, the methodology is extended to stationary dynamic factor models. For computational inference, parameter-expanded Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers are proposed, including an efficient adaptive Gibbs sampler. Two substantive applications showcase the scope of the methodology and its inferential benefits.

The prevailing statistical approach to analyzing persistence diagrams is concerned with filtering out topological noise. In this paper, we adopt a different viewpoint and aim at estimating the actual distribution of a random persistence diagram, which captures both topological signal and noise. To that effect, Chazel and Divol (2019) proved that, under general conditions, the expected value of a random persistence diagram is a measure admitting a Lebesgue density, called the persistence intensity function. In this paper, we are concerned with estimating the persistence intensity function and a novel, normalized version of it -- called the persistence density function. We present a class of kernel-based estimators based on an i.i.d. sample of persistence diagrams and derive estimation rates in the supremum norm. As a direct corollary, we obtain uniform consistency rates for estimating linear representations of persistence diagrams, including Betti numbers and persistence surfaces. Interestingly, the persistence density function delivers stronger statistical guarantees.

This paper proposes a simple method for balancing distributions of covariates for causal inference based on observational studies. The method makes it possible to balance an arbitrary number of quantiles (e.g., medians, quartiles, or deciles) together with means if necessary. The proposed approach is based on the theory of calibration estimators (Deville and S\"arndal 1992), in particular, calibration estimators for quantiles, proposed by Harms and Duchesne (2006). By modifying the entropy balancing method and the covariate balancing propensity score method, it is possible to balance the distributions of the treatment and control groups. The method does not require numerical integration, kernel density estimation or assumptions about the distributions; valid estimates can be obtained by drawing on existing asymptotic theory. Results of a simulation study indicate that the method efficiently estimates average treatment effects on the treated (ATT), the average treatment effect (ATE), the quantile treatment effect on the treated (QTT) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE), especially in the presence of non-linearity and mis-specification of the models. The proposed methods are implemented in an open source R package jointCalib.

We analyze nonparametric estimators for the distribution function of the incubation time in the singly and doubly interval censoring model. The classical approach is to use parametric families like Weibull, log-normal or gamma distributions in the estimation procedure. We propose nonparametric estimates which stay closer to the data than the classical parametric methods. We also give explicit limit distributions for discrete versions of the models and apply this to compute confidence intervals. The methods complement the analysis of the continuous model. R scripts for computation of the estimates are provided on //github.com/pietg/incubationtime.

Covariance matrices of random vectors contain information that is crucial for modelling. Certain structures and patterns of the covariances (or correlations) may be used to justify parametric models, e.g., autoregressive models. Until now, there have been only few approaches for testing such covariance structures systematically and in a unified way. In the present paper, we propose such a unified testing procedure, and we will exemplify the approach with a large variety of covariance structure models. This includes common structures such as diagonal matrices, Toeplitz matrices, and compound symmetry but also the more involved autoregressive matrices. We propose hypothesis tests for these structures, and we use bootstrap techniques for better small-sample approximation. The structures of the proposed tests invite for adaptations to other covariance patterns by choosing the hypothesis matrix appropriately. We prove their correctness for large sample sizes. The proposed methods require only weak assumptions. With the help of a simulation study, we assess the small sample properties of the tests. We also analyze a real data set to illustrate the application of the procedure.

We establish precise structural and risk equivalences between subsampling and ridge regularization for ensemble ridge estimators. Specifically, we prove that linear and quadratic functionals of subsample ridge estimators, when fitted with different ridge regularization levels $\lambda$ and subsample aspect ratios $\psi$, are asymptotically equivalent along specific paths in the $(\lambda,\psi)$-plane (where $\psi$ is the ratio of the feature dimension to the subsample size). Our results only require bounded moment assumptions on feature and response distributions and allow for arbitrary joint distributions. Furthermore, we provide a data-dependent method to determine the equivalent paths of $(\lambda,\psi)$. An indirect implication of our equivalences is that optimally tuned ridge regression exhibits a monotonic prediction risk in the data aspect ratio. This resolves a recent open problem raised by Nakkiran et al. for general data distributions under proportional asymptotics, assuming a mild regularity condition that maintains regression hardness through linearized signal-to-noise ratios.

Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.

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