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Metocean extremes often vary systematically with covariates such as direction and season. In this work, we present non-stationary models for the size and rate of occurrence of peaks over threshold of metocean variables with respect to one- or two-dimensional covariates. The variation of model parameters with covariate is described using a piecewise-linear function in one or two dimensions defined with respect to pre-specified node locations on the covariate domain. Parameter roughness is regulated to provide optimal predictive performance, assessed using cross-validation, within a penalised likelihood framework for inference. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using bootstrap resampling. The models are used to estimate extremes of storm peak significant wave height with respect to direction and season for a site in the northern North Sea. A covariate representation based on a triangulation of the direction-season domain with six nodes gives good predictive performance. The penalised piecewise-linear framework provides a flexible representation of covariate effects at reasonable computational cost.

We consider the general problem of online convex optimization with time-varying additive constraints in the presence of predictions for the next cost and constraint functions. A novel primal-dual algorithm is designed by combining a Follow-The-Regularized-Leader iteration with prediction-adaptive dynamic steps. The algorithm achieves $\mathcal O(T^{\frac{3-\beta}{4}})$ regret and $\mathcal O(T^{\frac{1+\beta}{2}})$ constraint violation bounds that are tunable via parameter $\beta\!\in\![1/2,1)$ and have constant factors that shrink with the predictions quality, achieving eventually $\mathcal O(1)$ regret for perfect predictions. Our work extends the FTRL framework for this constrained OCO setting and outperforms the respective state-of-the-art greedy-based solutions, without imposing conditions on the quality of predictions, the cost functions or the geometry of constraints, beyond convexity.

A functional dynamic factor model for time-dependent functional data is proposed. We decompose a functional time series into a predictive low-dimensional common component consisting of a finite number of factors and an infinite-dimensional idiosyncratic component that has no predictive power. The conditions under which all model parameters, including the number of factors, become identifiable are discussed. Our identification results lead to a simple-to-use two-stage estimation procedure based on functional principal components. As part of our estimation procedure, we solve the separation problem between the common and idiosyncratic functional components. In particular, we obtain a consistent information criterion that provides joint estimates of the number of factors and dynamic lags of the common component. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our method in a simulation study and to the problem of modeling and predicting yield curves. In an out-of-sample experiment, we demonstrate that our model performs well compared to the widely used term structure Nelson-Siegel model for yield curves.

Objective: We aim to utilise real world data in evidence synthesis to optimise an evidence base for the effectiveness of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis in order to allow for evidence on first-line therapies to inform second-line effectiveness estimates. Study design and setting: We use data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis (BSRBR-RA) to supplement RCT evidence obtained from the literature, by emulating target trials of treatment sequences to estimate treatment effects in each line of therapy. Treatment effects estimates from the target trials inform a bivariate network meta-analysis (NMA) of first and second-line treatments. Results: Summary data were obtained from 21 trials of biologic therapies including 2 for second-line treatment and results from six emulated target trials of both treatment lines. Bivariate NMA resulted in a decrease in uncertainty around the effectiveness estimates of the second-line therapies, when compared to the results of univariate NMA, and allowed for predictions of treatment effects not evaluated in second-line RCTs. Conclusion: Bivariate NMA provides effectiveness estimates for all treatments in first- and second-line, including predicted effects in second-line where these estimates did not exist in the data. This novel methodology may have further applications, for example for bridging networks of trials in children and adults.

We introduce a block-online variant of the temporal feature-wise linear modulation (TFiLM) model to achieve bandwidth extension. The proposed architecture simplifies the UNet backbone of the TFiLM to reduce inference time and employs an efficient transformer at the bottleneck to alleviate performance degradation. We also utilize self-supervised pretraining and data augmentation to enhance the quality of bandwidth extended signals and reduce the sensitivity with respect to downsampling methods. Experiment results on the VCTK dataset show that the proposed method outperforms several recent baselines in both intrusive and non-intrusive metrics. Pretraining and filter augmentation also help stabilize and enhance the overall performance.

In this paper we discuss a reduced basis method for linear evolution PDEs, which is based on the application of the Laplace transform. The main advantage of this approach consists in the fact that, differently from time stepping methods, like Runge-Kutta integrators, the Laplace transform allows to compute the solution directly at a given instant, which can be done by approximating the contour integral associated to the inverse Laplace transform by a suitable quadrature formula. In terms of the reduced basis methodology, this determines a significant improvement in the reduction phase - like the one based on the classical proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) - since the number of vectors to which the decomposition applies is drastically reduced as it does not contain all intermediate solutions generated along an integration grid by a time stepping method. We show the effectiveness of the method by some illustrative parabolic PDEs arising from finance and also provide some evidence that the method we propose, when applied to a simple advection equation, does not suffer the problem of slow decay of singular values which instead affects methods based on time integration of the Cauchy problem arising from space discretization.

Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has been widely applied in transportation demand prediction due to its excellent ability to capture non-Euclidean spatial dependence among station-level or regional transportation demands. However, in most of the existing research, the graph convolution was implemented on a heuristically generated adjacency matrix, which could neither reflect the real spatial relationships of stations accurately, nor capture the multi-level spatial dependence of demands adaptively. To cope with the above problems, this paper provides a novel graph convolutional network for transportation demand prediction. Firstly, a novel graph convolution architecture is proposed, which has different adjacency matrices in different layers and all the adjacency matrices are self-learned during the training process. Secondly, a layer-wise coupling mechanism is provided, which associates the upper-level adjacency matrix with the lower-level one. It also reduces the scale of parameters in our model. Lastly, a unitary network is constructed to give the final prediction result by integrating the hidden spatial states with gated recurrent unit, which could capture the multi-level spatial dependence and temporal dynamics simultaneously. Experiments have been conducted on two real-world datasets, NYC Citi Bike and NYC Taxi, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art ones.

In this work, we compare three different modeling approaches for the scores of soccer matches with regard to their predictive performances based on all matches from the four previous FIFA World Cups 2002 - 2014: Poisson regression models, random forests and ranking methods. While the former two are based on the teams' covariate information, the latter method estimates adequate ability parameters that reflect the current strength of the teams best. Within this comparison the best-performing prediction methods on the training data turn out to be the ranking methods and the random forests. However, we show that by combining the random forest with the team ability parameters from the ranking methods as an additional covariate we can improve the predictive power substantially. Finally, this combination of methods is chosen as the final model and based on its estimates, the FIFA World Cup 2018 is simulated repeatedly and winning probabilities are obtained for all teams. The model slightly favors Spain before the defending champion Germany. Additionally, we provide survival probabilities for all teams and at all tournament stages as well as the most probable tournament outcome.

Traditional methods for link prediction can be categorized into three main types: graph structure feature-based, latent feature-based, and explicit feature-based. Graph structure feature methods leverage some handcrafted node proximity scores, e.g., common neighbors, to estimate the likelihood of links. Latent feature methods rely on factorizing networks' matrix representations to learn an embedding for each node. Explicit feature methods train a machine learning model on two nodes' explicit attributes. Each of the three types of methods has its unique merits. In this paper, we propose SEAL (learning from Subgraphs, Embeddings, and Attributes for Link prediction), a new framework for link prediction which combines the power of all the three types into a single graph neural network (GNN). GNN is a new type of neural network which directly accepts graphs as input and outputs their labels. In SEAL, the input to the GNN is a local subgraph around each target link. We prove theoretically that our local subgraphs also reserve a great deal of high-order graph structure features related to link existence. Another key feature is that our GNN can naturally incorporate latent features and explicit features. It is achieved by concatenating node embeddings (latent features) and node attributes (explicit features) in the node information matrix for each subgraph, thus combining the three types of features to enhance GNN learning. Through extensive experiments, SEAL shows unprecedentedly strong performance against a wide range of baseline methods, including various link prediction heuristics and network embedding methods.

We report an evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing knowledge base embedding models for relation prediction and for relation extraction on a wide range of benchmarks. We also describe a new benchmark, which is much larger and complex than previous ones, which we introduce to help validate the effectiveness of both tasks. The results demonstrate that knowledge base embedding models are generally effective for relation prediction but unable to give improvements for the state-of-art neural relation extraction model with the existing strategies, while pointing limitations of existing methods.