Objective: We aim to utilise real world data in evidence synthesis to optimise an evidence base for the effectiveness of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis in order to allow for evidence on first-line therapies to inform second-line effectiveness estimates. Study design and setting: We use data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis (BSRBR-RA) to supplement RCT evidence obtained from the literature, by emulating target trials of treatment sequences to estimate treatment effects in each line of therapy. Treatment effects estimates from the target trials inform a bivariate network meta-analysis (NMA) of first and second-line treatments. Results: Summary data were obtained from 21 trials of biologic therapies including 2 for second-line treatment and results from six emulated target trials of both treatment lines. Bivariate NMA resulted in a decrease in uncertainty around the effectiveness estimates of the second-line therapies, when compared to the results of univariate NMA, and allowed for predictions of treatment effects not evaluated in second-line RCTs. Conclusion: Bivariate NMA provides effectiveness estimates for all treatments in first- and second-line, including predicted effects in second-line where these estimates did not exist in the data. This novel methodology may have further applications, for example for bridging networks of trials in children and adults.
Anomaly detection among a large number of processes arises in many applications ranging from dynamic spectrum access to cybersecurity. In such problems one can often obtain noisy observations aggregated from a chosen subset of processes that conforms to a tree structure. The distribution of these observations, based on which the presence of anomalies is detected, may be only partially known. This gives rise to the need for a search strategy designed to account for both the sample complexity and the detection accuracy, as well as cope with statistical models that are known only up to some missing parameters. In this work we propose a sequential search strategy using two variations of the Generalized Local Likelihood Ratio statistic. Our proposed Hierarchical Dynamic Search (HDS) strategy is shown to be order-optimal with respect to the size of the search space and asymptotically optimal with respect to the detection accuracy. An explicit upper bound on the error probability of HDS is established for the finite sample regime. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the performance gains of HDS over existing methods.
Interacting agents receive public information at no cost and flexibly acquire private information at a cost proportional to entropy reduction. When a policymaker provides more public information, agents acquire less private information, thus lowering information costs. Does more public information raise or reduce uncertainty faced by agents? Is it beneficial or detrimental to welfare? To address these questions, we examine the impacts of public information on flexible information acquisition in a linear-quadratic-Gaussian game with arbitrary quadratic material welfare. More public information raises uncertainty if and only if the game exhibits strategic complementarity, which can be harmful to welfare. However, when agents acquire a large amount of information, more provision of public information increases welfare through a substantial reduction in the cost of information. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for welfare to increase with public information and identify optimal public information disclosure, which is either full or partial disclosure depending upon the welfare function and the slope of the best response.
Mixed-dimensional elliptic equations exhibiting a hierarchical structure are commonly used to model problems with high aspect ratio inclusions, such as flow in fractured porous media. We derive general abstract estimates based on the theory of functional a posteriori error estimates, for which guaranteed upper bounds for the primal and dual variables and two-sided bounds for the primal-dual pair are obtained. We improve on the abstract results obtained with the functional approach by proposing four different ways of estimating the residual errors based on the extent the approximate solution has conservation properties, i.e.: (1) no conservation, (2) subdomain conservation, (3) grid-level conservation, and (4) exact conservation. This treatment results in sharper and fully computable estimates when mass is conserved either at the grid level or exactly, with a comparable structure to those obtained from grid-based a posteriori techniques. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our theoretical results through numerical experiments using four different discretization methods for synthetic problems and applications based on benchmarks of flow in fractured porous media.
We present a framework for gesture customization requiring minimal examples from users, all without degrading the performance of existing gesture sets. To achieve this, we first deployed a large-scale study (N=500+) to collect data and train an accelerometer-gyroscope recognition model with a cross-user accuracy of 95.7% and a false-positive rate of 0.6 per hour when tested on everyday non-gesture data. Next, we design a few-shot learning framework which derives a lightweight model from our pre-trained model, enabling knowledge transfer without performance degradation. We validate our approach through a user study (N=20) examining on-device customization from 12 new gestures, resulting in an average accuracy of 55.3%, 83.1%, and 87.2% on using one, three, or five shots when adding a new gesture, while maintaining the same recognition accuracy and false-positive rate from the pre-existing gesture set. We further evaluate the usability of our real-time implementation with a user experience study (N=20). Our results highlight the effectiveness, learnability, and usability of our customization framework. Our approach paves the way for a future where users are no longer bound to pre-existing gestures, freeing them to creatively introduce new gestures tailored to their preferences and abilities.
Remote-sensing (RS) Change Detection (CD) aims to detect "changes of interest" from co-registered bi-temporal images. The performance of existing deep supervised CD methods is attributed to the large amounts of annotated data used to train the networks. However, annotating large amounts of remote sensing images is labor-intensive and expensive, particularly with bi-temporal images, as it requires pixel-wise comparisons by a human expert. On the other hand, we often have access to unlimited unlabeled multi-temporal RS imagery thanks to ever-increasing earth observation programs. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective way to leverage the information from unlabeled bi-temporal images to improve the performance of CD approaches. More specifically, we propose a semi-supervised CD model in which we formulate an unsupervised CD loss in addition to the supervised Cross-Entropy (CE) loss by constraining the output change probability map of a given unlabeled bi-temporal image pair to be consistent under the small random perturbations applied on the deep feature difference map that is obtained by subtracting their latent feature representations. Experiments conducted on two publicly available CD datasets show that the proposed semi-supervised CD method can reach closer to the performance of supervised CD even with access to as little as 10% of the annotated training data. Code available at //github.com/wgcban/SemiCD
We study the performance of a phase-noise impaired double reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS)-aided multiuser (MU) multiple-input single-output (MISO) system under spatial correlation at both RISs and base-station (BS). The downlink achievable rate is derived in closed-form under maximum ratio transmission (MRT) precoding. In addition, we obtain the optimal phase-shift design at both RISs in closed-form for the considered channel and phase-noise models. Numerical results validate the analytical expressions, and highlight the effects of different system parameters on the achievable rate. Our analysis shows that phase-noise can severely degrade the performance when users do not have direct links to both RISs, and can only be served via the double-reflection link. Also, we show that high spatial correlation at RISs is essential for high achievable rates.
Designers reportedly struggle with design optimization tasks where they are asked to find a combination of design parameters that maximizes a given set of objectives. In HCI, design optimization problems are often exceedingly complex, involving multiple objectives and expensive empirical evaluations. Model-based computational design algorithms assist designers by generating design examples during design, however they assume a model of the interaction domain. Black box methods for assistance, on the other hand, can work with any design problem. However, virtually all empirical studies of this human-in-the-loop approach have been carried out by either researchers or end-users. The question stands out if such methods can help designers in realistic tasks. In this paper, we study Bayesian optimization as an algorithmic method to guide the design optimization process. It operates by proposing to a designer which design candidate to try next, given previous observations. We report observations from a comparative study with 40 novice designers who were tasked to optimize a complex 3D touch interaction technique. The optimizer helped designers explore larger proportions of the design space and arrive at a better solution, however they reported lower agency and expressiveness. Designers guided by an optimizer reported lower mental effort but also felt less creative and less in charge of the progress. We conclude that human-in-the-loop optimization can support novice designers in cases where agency is not critical.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.
Image-to-image translation (I2I) aims to transfer images from a source domain to a target domain while preserving the content representations. I2I has drawn increasing attention and made tremendous progress in recent years because of its wide range of applications in many computer vision and image processing problems, such as image synthesis, segmentation, style transfer, restoration, and pose estimation. In this paper, we provide an overview of the I2I works developed in recent years. We will analyze the key techniques of the existing I2I works and clarify the main progress the community has made. Additionally, we will elaborate on the effect of I2I on the research and industry community and point out remaining challenges in related fields.