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The Tsallis $q$-Gaussian distribution is a powerful generalization of the standard Gaussian distribution and is commonly used in various fields, including non-extensive statistical mechanics, financial markets and image processing. It belongs to the $q$-distribution family, which is characterized by a non-additive entropy. Due to their versatility and practicality, $q$-Gaussians are a natural choice for modeling input quantities in measurement models. This paper presents the characteristic function of a linear combination of independent $q$-Gaussian random variables and proposes a numerical method for its inversion. The proposed technique makes it possible to determine the exact probability distribution of the output quantity in linear measurement models, with the input quantities modeled as independent $q$-Gaussian random variables. It provides an alternative computational procedure to the Monte Carlo method for uncertainty analysis through the propagation of distributions.

Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models without a tractable likelihood function. Such models are typical in many fields of science, rendering these classical approaches impractical in these settings. To address this limitation, we develop a new approach to generalising the methods of likelihood profiling for situations when the likelihood cannot be evaluated but stochastic simulations of the assumed data generating process are possible. Our approach is based upon recasting developments from generalised Bayesian inference into a frequentist setting. We derive a method for constructing generalised likelihood profiles and calibrating these profiles to achieve desired frequentist coverage for a given coverage level. We demonstrate the performance of our method on realistic examples from the literature and highlight the capability of our approach for the purpose of practical identifability analysis for models with intractable likelihoods.

Estimating confidence scores for recognition results is a classic task in ASR field and of vital importance for kinds of downstream tasks and training strategies. Previous end-to-end~(E2E) based confidence estimation models (CEM) predict score sequences of equal length with input transcriptions, leading to unreliable estimation when deletion and insertion errors occur. In this paper we proposed CIF-Aligned confidence estimation model (CA-CEM) to achieve accurate and reliable confidence estimation based on novel non-autoregressive E2E ASR model - Paraformer. CA-CEM utilizes the modeling character of continuous integrate-and-fire (CIF) mechanism to generate token-synchronous acoustic embedding, which solves the estimation failure issue above. We measure the quality of estimation with AUC and RMSE in token level and ECE-U - a proposed metrics in utterance level. CA-CEM gains 24% and 19% relative reduction on ECE-U and also better AUC and RMSE on two test sets. Furthermore, we conduct analysis to explore the potential of CEM for different ASR related usage.

Signature transforms are iterated path integrals of continuous and discrete-time time series data, and their universal nonlinearity linearizes the problem of feature selection. This paper revisits the consistency issue of Lasso regression for the signature transform, both theoretically and numerically. Our study shows that, for processes and time series that are closer to Brownian motion or random walk with weaker inter-dimensional correlations, the Lasso regression is more consistent for their signatures defined by It\^o integrals; for mean reverting processes and time series, their signatures defined by Stratonovich integrals have more consistency in the Lasso regression. Our findings highlight the importance of choosing appropriate definitions of signatures and stochastic models in statistical inference and machine learning.

It is well known, that Fr\'echet means on non-Euclidean spaces may exhibit nonstandard asymptotic rates depending on curvature. Even for distributions featuring standard asymptotic rates, there are non-Euclidean effects, altering finite sampling rates up to considerable sample sizes. These effects can be measured by the variance modulation function proposed by Pennec (2019). Among others, in view of statistical inference, it is important to bound this function on intervals of sampling sizes. In a first step into this direction, for the special case of a K-spider we give such an interval, based only on folded moments and total probabilities of spider legs and illustrate the method by simulations.

With the growing availability of large-scale biomedical data, it is often time-consuming or infeasible to directly perform traditional statistical analysis with relatively limited computing resources at hand. We propose a fast subsampling method to effectively approximate the full data maximum partial likelihood estimator in Cox's model, which largely reduces the computational burden when analyzing massive survival data. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of a general subsample-based estimator. The optimal subsampling probabilities with explicit expressions are determined via minimizing the trace of the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for a linearly transformed parameter estimator. We propose a two-step subsampling algorithm for practical implementation, which has a significant reduction in computing time compared to the full data method. The asymptotic properties of the resulting two-step subsample-based estimator is also established. Extensive numerical experiments and a real-world example are provided to assess our subsampling strategy.

We propose two multiscale comparisons of graphs using heat diffusion, allowing to compare graphs without node correspondence or even with different sizes. These multiscale comparisons lead to the definition of Lipschitz-continuous empirical processes indexed by a real parameter. The statistical properties of empirical means of such processes are studied in the general case. Under mild assumptions, we prove a functional central limit theorem, as well as a Gaussian approximation with a rate depending only on the sample size. Once applied to our processes, these results allow to analyze data sets of pairs of graphs. We design consistent confidence bands around empirical means and consistent two-sample tests, using bootstrap methods. Their performances are evaluated by simulations on synthetic data sets.

A novel problem of improving causal effect estimation accuracy with the help of knowledge transfer under the same covariate (or feature) space setting, i.e., homogeneous transfer learning (TL), is studied, referred to as the Transfer Causal Learning (TCL) problem. While most recent efforts in adapting TL techniques to estimate average causal effect (ACE) have been focused on the heterogeneous covariate space setting, those methods are inadequate for tackling the TCL problem since their algorithm designs are based on the decomposition into shared and domain-specific covariate spaces. To address this issue, we propose a generic framework called \texttt{$\ell_1$-TCL}, which incorporates $\ell_1$ regularized TL for nuisance parameter estimation and downstream plug-in ACE estimators, including outcome regression, inverse probability weighted, and doubly robust estimators. Most importantly, with the help of Lasso for high-dimensional regression, we establish non-asymptotic recovery guarantees for the generalized linear model (GLM) under the sparsity assumption for the proposed \texttt{$\ell_1$-TCL}. Moreover, the success of \texttt{$\ell_1$-TCL} could inspire the adaptations of many recently proposed principled approaches in statistics literature to be adapted to this novel TCL problem. From an empirical perspective, \texttt{$\ell_1$-TCL} is a generic learning framework that can incorporate not only GLM but also many recently developed non-parametric methods, which can enhance robustness to model mis-specification. We demonstrate this empirical benefit through extensive experiments using GLM and recent neural network based \texttt{$\ell_1$-TCL} on both benchmark semi-synthetic and real datasets, which shows improved performance compared with existing TL approaches for ACE estimation.

Graphs are important data representations for describing objects and their relationships, which appear in a wide diversity of real-world scenarios. As one of a critical problem in this area, graph generation considers learning the distributions of given graphs and generating more novel graphs. Owing to their wide range of applications, generative models for graphs, which have a rich history, however, are traditionally hand-crafted and only capable of modeling a few statistical properties of graphs. Recent advances in deep generative models for graph generation is an important step towards improving the fidelity of generated graphs and paves the way for new kinds of applications. This article provides an extensive overview of the literature in the field of deep generative models for graph generation. Firstly, the formal definition of deep generative models for the graph generation and the preliminary knowledge are provided. Secondly, taxonomies of deep generative models for both unconditional and conditional graph generation are proposed respectively; the existing works of each are compared and analyzed. After that, an overview of the evaluation metrics in this specific domain is provided. Finally, the applications that deep graph generation enables are summarized and five promising future research directions are highlighted.

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.